Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 170307
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1107 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND BRING SHOWERS TO NEW
YORK STATE TONIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL END EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
WITH DRIER AIR AND SUNSHINE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. IT WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY COMFORTABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROF GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A
SERIES OF RATHER SUBTLE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
THE LEADING EDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS WILL CROSS BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 600 AM. THIS CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR JUST ABOUT TO ENTER
WESTERN NEW YORK. A CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS THIS
AREA OF SHOWERS TO EXPAND AS ENTERS WESTERN NEW YORK AND THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE SINCE THIS AREA IS MUCH MORE MOIST WITH A SUBTLE
BOUNDARY TO ENHANCE LIFT. RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN
A TENTH AND QUARTER OF AN INCH.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP THIS EVENING FROM EVAPORATIONAL COOLING AND
FROM ADVECTION OFF THE RELATIVELY COOL LAKES. LOWS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. DEW POINTS
IN OHIO ARE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AND AS THESE ADVECT INTO
OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND INTERACT WITH THE COOL LAKE WATERS
THERE MAY BE SOME FOG NEAR LAKE ERIE.

TRAILING LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
FRIDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR ADVECTING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA WILL ERODE THE CLOUDS...WITH SUNSHINE RETURNING FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RECOVER
BACK TO NORMAL...AND EVEN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
FINGER LAKES REGION WHERE TEMPERATURES ON A WESTERLY BREEZE MAY
REACH THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO CHANGES MADE ON THE EVENING UPDATE.

DRYING WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE
FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A DRY AND UNEVENTFUL FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM QUEBEC ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT COULD PERHAPS
BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN NEW
YORK. HOWEVER...IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST...WITH
LOW-LEVEL RIDGING AND DRIER AIR REMAINING DOMINANT ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. THEREFORE...WE WILL MAINTAIN TO INHERENT
DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. WITH A NORTHEAST ORIENTED TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ALOFT...HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE MID 60S SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. PLENTY OF INCOMING DRY AIR
WILL ENSURE CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR
SUNDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A MUCH MORE ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER PATTERN
AND UNFORTUNATELY A SHOWING A COOLING TREND. CHANCES FOR RAIN
INCREASE GREATLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FIRST SLUG OF LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOP INTO THE AREA.
MID LEVEL HEIGHT/VORTICITY FIELDS ALSO SHOW A DECENT EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION WITH GOOD MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC AND OMEGA SIGNATURES. EXPECT A BRIEF BREAK MONDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE SECONDARY WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER THIS...A
LARGE CLOSE LOW MEANDERS OVER ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE IDEA THAT
THERE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE
HEIGHT OF THE PEAK HEATING CYCLE EACH DAY BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF BULK OF THE PERIOD REMAINED DRY GIVEN NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF
NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY KEEP WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THE MUCH COOLER SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 03Z FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR. SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT THESE
WILL ONLY HAVE A MODEST IMPACT ON CIGS. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW
LOW WILL CIGS/VSBY DROP WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SUBTLE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CAUSE SW WINDS AND THIS COMBINED WITH
MOIST DEW POINTS MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS AND FOG
NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES AT BUF/IAG/ART. THERE MAY BE IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN FOG/CIGS AT BUF...AND PERHAPS AT IAG/ART. IFR CIGS
ARE ALSO LIKELY AT JHW DUE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

CIGS SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER FRIDAY MORNING AS A WESTERLY
COMPONENT BRINGS IN DRIER AIR. EVENTUALLY EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY..VFR/MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL VEER TO SOUTHWEST TO WEST
TOMORROW BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA/WCH
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS





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