Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 270014
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
814 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. A QUIETER PERIOD WILL THEN ENSUE
FOR THE BETTER PART OF SUNDAY WITH JUST ISOLATED STORMS. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW WILL BRING A ROUND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY.
ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROKEN BATCH OF WEAK SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO AND THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY HAS
THUS FAR NOT PRODUCED ANY LIGHTNING...AND WITH WEAKENING DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...THE LACK OF LIGHTNING WILL LIKELY PERSIST WITH THIS
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS REACH THE EASTERN SHORE...AND
THEN INLAND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

AT 850 HPA AND 700 HPA A SHORTWAVE IS NOW TRIGGERING SOME
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE AND WESTERN PA. THIS ACTIVITY
IS DRIFTING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE COMPLEX IN ITS CURRENT STATE
LIKELY TO MISS OUR CWA. HOWEVER THIS SHORTWAVE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
PLUME OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. IT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHAT EFFECTS THE CURRENT CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH
WILL HAVE ON THIS THETA-E PLUME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE LIKELY
POPS LATER TONIGHT IN RESPECT TO THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING
ACROSS THE REGION. IT COULD BE THAT THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH WITH NEW STORMS NOT DEVELOPING ON THE NORTHWARD
SIDE OF THE COMPLEX.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE...WITH LOWS RANGING
THROUGH THE LOW TO MID 60S.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF SUNDAY WILL TURN OUT TO BE DRY. MODEL
CONSENSUS FORECASTS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TO BE EXITING EAST MONDAY
MORNING...WITH SUBTLE RIDGING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS LIKELY TO
DRY THINGS OUT. LATER IN THE DAY..MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS
APPROACH...ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW AND SHARP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE VAST MAJORITY OF 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS SHOULD NOT REACH WESTERN NEW YORK UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. SPC DOES HAVE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON
SUNDAY...BUT THIS TOO IS LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE LAKESHORES AND
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE MARKED BY POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINS
FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THROUGH THE
COURSE OF SUNDAY NIGHT THE ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY OF SOUTHERN NY/NORTHERN PA. AT THE SAME TIME A POTENT
SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
HIGHER UP A 100 KNOT JET AT 250 HPA WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE
CORN BELT STATES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS JET STRUCTURE WILL
PLACE THE FAVORABLE DIVERGENT LEFT EXIT QUAD OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. BOTH AND SHORTWAVE AND JET STRUCTURE WILL BE PROVIDING
PLENTY OF LIFT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT. A DEFORMATION
ZONE WILL ALSO SET UP JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL BE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL
FALL...WHICH NOW LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
NEW YORK STATE/NORTHERN PA. FLOODING RAIN POTENTIAL WILL ALSO HAVE
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ACROSS THIS
REGION. TEMPERATURE WISE THERE WILL BE ONE MORE WARM NIGHT WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MONDAY MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA IN EARNEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT RECOVER MUCH ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70. THESE READINGS ARE MORE TYPICAL OF MID SEPTEMBER GIVING THE
FALLISH FEEL TO THE AIR. HOWEVER ABOUT HALF OF JULY`S IN RECENT
DECADES FOR BOTH BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER HAVE AT LEAST ONE DAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S...SO THIS COOL COUPLE OF DAYS ARE NOT ANYTHING
EXTREME.

AFTER A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY NIGHT THINGS LOOK TO DRY OUT
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. THE BIG
CHANGE HERE WILL BE IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT. THE CHANGE IN AIR
MASS WILL BE REALIZED WHEN YOU WAKE UP TUESDAY MORNING TO LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE MID
50S NEAR THE LAKE SHORES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AN ANOMALOUSLY -3 STANDARD DEVIATION
UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE FOUND OVER THE EASTERN
US...WITH A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN US. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR COOL AIR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE
COOLEST DAY LIKELY TUESDAY WHERE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S
TO LOWER 70S FOR HIGHS. THE COOL 850 HPA TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 7
TO 8C ON TUESDAY MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN...AS WELL AS
CHANCES FOR WATER SPOUTS ON THE LAKES.

SOME WARMING MID TO END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH HIGHS WILL ONLY
MODERATE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...STILL SOME 5 DEGREES OR MORE
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY WHEN ANOTHER AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER
AIR BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AND AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
WILL INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 00Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION. INITIALLY
WEAK SHOWERS ACROSS CROSSING THE SE LAKE ONTARIO REGION...BUT EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF BOTH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LARGELY
VFR AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY...FALLING VSBYS IN RAIN SHOWERS MAY LOWER
TO IFR BRIEFLY AT ANY AIRFIELD.

BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY A MOISTURE RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MAY PRODUCE SOME
FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE FOR THE
KJHW TERMINAL. ELSEWHERE PERIODIC MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 13Z.

SUNDAY MORNING EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH THE
BETTER PART OF THE DAY DRY ACROSS THE AIRFIELDS WITH NO FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS. BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN NUMBERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
ACTIVITY BETWEEN 00 AND 12Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
IMPROVEMENT TO BE SEEN BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL SLACKEN SOME THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ANY STORM MAY
BRING A BRIEF UPTICK IN BOTH WIND SPEED AND WAVE HEIGHTS...BUT
GENERALLY SPEAKING WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND WAVES 1 FOOT
OR LESS.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME CHOPPY WAVE ACTION ON THE
EASTERN PORTION OF BOTH LAKES...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW MAY
BRING NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO ON MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...JM/THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS







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