Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
FXUS61 KBUF 232004
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
404 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016
Aside from scattered showers that will impact the western Southern
Tier early this evening, conditions will remain dry and increasingly
warm across Western and North-Central New York through this weekend
as high pressure will dominate the region. A cold front crossing the
region Sunday night into Monday will bring the next chance for rain
followed by cooler temperatures next week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Regional radar continues to indicate isolated shower activity across
the Southern Tier late this afternoon with a band of light showers
upstream across Southern Ontario associated with a weak shortwave.
Models have a poor handle on this feature, however given the current
trajectory of the showers, have bumped chance pops back north into
Erie County this afternoon.
Shower activity should end this evening as the shortwave continues
to dive southeast and any lingering precip sinks south into PA. Look
for extensive clearing behind the shortwave as a deep dry airmass
also sinks south across the lakes and into New York. This will allow
for decent radiational cooling, dropping temperatures into the 50s.
The clear skies will persist at least through Friday as high
pressure builds overhead the Lower Great Lakes. 850mb temps rising
to around +13C should yield highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s,
with slightly cooler readings in the low 70s along the Lake Ontario
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Mother Nature has guaranteed us very warm and dry weather for the
bulk of the weekend...as a progressive low amplitude ridge will
cross the region. Sfc high pressure that will be anchored off Nova
Scotia will circulate increasingly warm and humid air northwards
in the process...so that temperatures will reach into the mid to
upper 80s on Saturday and within a degree of so of 90 for Sunday.
By the end of the weekend...the table will be set for some
thunderstorms as an unstable airmass will be lying in wait for an
approaching cold front. This front will cross our region in `pieces`
with the first boundary coming through Sunday night. PWAT values
over the western counties will surge to nearly 2 inches immediately
ahead of this first boundary...so there will be somewhat of a risk
for heavier than normal downpours.
While Monday could be somewhat unsettled with the `real` cold front
moving across the region...the plume of moisture that would have
supported more robust convection the previous night will be exiting
across New England. By the afternoon...there may not even be enough
moisture to support convection over the western counties. Will thus
taper off the chc pops from west to east during the course of the
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
After several days of uncomfortably warm weather...it will be much
more pleasant in the wake of the cold front for Tuesday and
Wednesday. H85 temps in the single digits C will only support max
temps in the 70s...which will be close to...if not a couple degrees
below typical late june levels.
While a secondary cold front will present the low probability for a
shower or thunderstorm on Tuesday...the next expansive sfc high
will result in fair weather through mid week.
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period with light
showers across the western Southern Tier and high clouds elsewhere
late this afternoon giving way to clearing skies this evening as
high pressure builds over the region. The clear skies will then
persist through the balance of the TAF period.
Friday Night through Sunday...VFR.
Sunday Night through Monday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and
Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Tranquil conditions will persist on the lakes through the coming
weekend as high pressure builds overhead the region. Southerly winds
will freshen Sunday night ahead of an approaching cold front,
allowing waves to build to around 3 feet across northeastern
portions of the lake. Winds will veer westerly behind the front
Monday, resulting in a light to moderate chop on the eastern ends of
the lakes next week.