Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KBUF 152114
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
514 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION ON WEDNESDAY BUT WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BY THIS EVENING AND WILL NOT FACTOR INTO
THE EVENING FORECAST.

THIS LEAVES WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY UNDER AN UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIRMASS WITH AT LEAST INITIALLY ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH
15000 FT PER GOES CLOUD TOP IR SATELLITE DATA AND AMDAR OBSERVATIONS
AT KBUF AT 17Z.  IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS FOR CLEARING TO GET
STARTED...BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE MOISTURE TO QUICKLY MIX OUT DURING
THE EVENING HOURS AS SEEN UPSTREAM OVER MI.  THIS WILL LEAVE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH ABOUT 6000FT...BUT EXPECT THIS TOO SHOULD MIX
OUT LEAVING MOST OF THE REGION UNDER CLEAR SKIES FOR A PORTION OF
TONIGHT.  THIS WILL PRESENT A THREAT OF BLACK ICE WITH SHELTERED WET
ROADS NOT HAVING A CHANCE TO DRY OUT BEFORE TEMPERATURES PLUMMET
PAST THE FREEZING MARK.  SOME ROADS ARE ALREADY DRY OVER WESTERN
NY...SO THIS WILL VARY FROM PLACE TO PLACE.  ISSUED A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT.

ONE EXCEPTION TO CLEARING SKIES WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OFF LAKE ONTARIO WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT FROM ABOUT
WAYNE THROUGH PORTIONS OF OSWEGO COUNTY.  EAST OF LAKE ERIE THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF LAKE RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS...BUT UPSTREAM
DATA DOES NOT SUPPORT LONG LIVED HORIZONTAL ROLL CONVECTION.
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
WELL INTO THE NIGHT BEFORE ANY CLEARING TAKES PLACE.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS ARE DROPPING
QUICKLY...AND WITH THE FORECAST OF CLEARING SKIES SOME RECORD LOWS
POSSIBLE. RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 16TH ARE 20 IN BUFFALO...22 IN
ROCHESTER...AND 25 IN WATERTOWN...AND ALL APPEAR TO AT LEAST HAVE A
DECENT CHANCE AT BEING BROKEN.

FOR WEDNESDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME SEMBLANCE OF A
LAKE SHADOW/LOW TOPPED CUMULUS INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLOW TO RECOVER...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR
40 FOR MOST AREAS...AND A LITTLE COOLER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT WILL STILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH WILL BRING A BIT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR NORMAL
HIGHS IN THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED CLIPPER LOW WILL APPROACH ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH
THIS SYSTEM...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN PORTIONS. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM GUIDANCE SHOWS A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING...WHICH
SHOULD LAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL
THIS SHOULD BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN MODEL TIMING WEAK SHORTWAVES THIS FAR OUT IS
LOW...WITH THE FORECAST REFLECTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW CHANCE
POPS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS SAID...ANY SHOWERS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY TO PREVAIL
THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME DESPITE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CIGS OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR
THIS EVENING...WHILE SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
FOUND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THE BULK OF THE OW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT...LEAVING
SCT CLOUD COVER OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE WEE HOURS
OF THE MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND THIS
WILL RESULT IN IDEAL FLYING CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NEARLY
CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
IN THE WAKE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND
WAVES WILL REMAIN...BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

LOOKING A BIT FURTHER AHEAD...EXPECT MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT ON THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM NEW YORK STATE TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
...FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION...

AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION...BUT THE MAIN CAUSE FOR FLOODING IS DUE TO THE SNOW MELT.
WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS MELTED MOST OF THE SNOW
ON THE TUG HILL AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS. THIS
HAS CAUSED CREEKS AND RIVERS TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WILL OCCUR ON THE BLACK RIVER BASIN.
THE BLACK RIVER AT BOONVILLE AND THE MOOSE RIVER AT MCKEEVER ARE
FORECAST TO REACH MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING WITH CRESTS TONIGHT.
AFTER THE CONFLUENCE OF THE BLACK AND MOOSE RIVERS...THERE WILL BE
MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST FOR THE
WATERTOWN FORECAST POINT. THIS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
FARMLAND BETWEEN CARTHAGE AND LOWVILLE. ALSO...THE BLACK RIVER WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...PROBABLY
LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY.

OTHER CREEKS AND RIVERS ARE ALSO FLOWING HIGH. THE BEAVER RIVER IS A
LITTLE OVER 5 FEET AND FLOWS THIS HIGH CAN START TO IMPACT SOME
AREAS ALONG THE RIVER NEAR CROGHAN. SOME ADDITIONAL RISES ARE
POSSIBLE ON THE BEAVER RIVER THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALLER CREEKS ARE
LIKELY TO BE NEAR CREST OR WILL CREST BY TONIGHT...BUT THESE STILL
WILL CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING AND POSSIBLY SOME ROAD CLOSURES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...ZAFF
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...JJR/ZAFF
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.