Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 270623
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
223 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure anchored off the Southeast Coast will combine with
persistent low pressure over the center of the country to keep a
feed of warm humid air in place through the bulk of the long holiday
weekend. The mid summer warmth will fuel some widely separated
showers and thunderstorms away from the lakes today...then this
activity will gradually increase each day through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Western and North-Central New York will stew in a very warm and
muggy airmass more reminiscent of late-July than late-May as
dewpoints will linger in the lower 60s throughout the night. Given
the high dewpoints and light winds, patchy fog cannot be ruled out
across lower lying areas...particularly those that saw heavier
rainfall earlier today. Look for lows to only fall into the low to
mid 60s, with a few spots in the Buffalo metro and near Lake Erie
only falling into the upper 60s.

Later this Friday, a burgeoning upper level ridge bulging into the
Lower Great Lakes will make for an even warmer day than today as
850mb temps push towards +17C, yielding widespread highs in the mid
80s, with a few spots in the typically warmer Genesee Valley
possibly breaching the 90 degree mark. This ridging should have a
detrimental effect on the development of any organized convection...
however given the moist and unstable airmass in place with SBCAPES
progged to climb as high as 1500 j/kg in the afternoon inland from
the lakes, expect that we should at least see isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, with lake breeze
boundaries providing the impetus for convection.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level ridge will extend from Bermuda to the Lower Great
Lakes Region Friday Night through Sunday.  This will bring mid-
summers warmth and a persistent but small chance for showers and
thunderstorms to our region during the holiday weekend.

The big story for the weekend will be the early season heat, which
will approach record levels on Saturday. Highs will range from the
mid 80s to around 90 inland of the lake breeze on Saturday, with
Sunday just a few degrees cooler. Dew points will be in the mid to
upper 60s which will result in muggy conditions and limit cooling
overnight.

The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be during the
afternoon and early evening hours when daytime heating helps
destabilize the atmosphere. The combination of boundary layer
moisture and heating will result in fairly impressive instability
with NAM/GFS BUFKIT showing afternoon CAPES climbing over 2000 J/Kg
inland of the lake breeze. Despite this instability, upper level
ridging will limit large scale lift. Lacking a focus, expect
diurnally driven thunderstorms to be fairly sparse in areal
coverage, mainly focusing on and inland of lake breeze or boundaries
or across higher terrain. Model QPFs may be misleading due to
smoothing of lower resolution guidance when in reality there will
heavy but localized downpours. As a result will carry mostly low to
mid-range chance POPS during the afternoon and evening hours
Saturday and Sunday.

Even without any large scale lift at night, weak impulses may cross
the top of the ridge. Therefore it is difficult to completely rule
any showers during the nighttime and morning hours, but the chances
are very small with very limited areal coverage. A shortwave will
approach the region from the Upper Lakes as the ridge starts to
break down Sunday night. This will result in an increasing chance
for showers late Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Summers warmth and humidity will have one last day of gripping the
Eastern Great Lakes region before a weak cool front crosses the
region. Expect showers and thunderstorms throughout the day
Monday...with activity ending late morning across WNY and then the
afternoon hours over the Finger Lakes and Eastern Lake Ontario
region as this weak cool front crosses. Highs Monday will reach into
the lower 80s for many areas.

Air temperatures will be a few degrees cooler Tues-Wednesday and
more noticeable will be the drop in humidity as dewpoints will fall
from the mid 60s Monday down to the mid 50s for Tues-Wednesday. High
pressure extending southward from Canada will provide for sunny
skies both days.

Thursday a storm will advance across the western Great Lakes
region...and towards James Bay...while pushing a cold front and
associated showers and thunderstorms eastward across the Great
Lakes. This activity may reach the eastern Great Lakes area before
the end of the day Thursday. Ahead of this cold front southerly
winds will bring a return to warm and more humid air for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Persistent ridging off the Southeast Coast will provide Western and
North Central New York with mainly VFR conditions through the TAF
period...although there will be two areas that will likely
experience IFR conditions between 09 and 12z this morning.

The first of these areas will be across the Southern Tier where dew
points close to 60 and a light southerly flow could produce some
patchy IFR cigs/vsbys at sites such as KJHW and KELZ. The second
area will be across the North Country where MVFR vsbys were already
in place as of the 06z TAF issuance. VSBYS at sites such as KART are
expected to lower to IFR levels after 09z. IFR conditions are
already in place across parts of Southern Ontario...upstream from
KART.

As we work through the upcoming day...while VFR conditions will be
in place across the region...there will be the risk for convection
across the Srn Tier and Finger Lakes Region after 16z. This is not
expected to impact commercial TAF sites though for Western and North
Central New York.

For Friday night...any early evening convection will quickly
dissipate. This will leave VFR conditions across all of the region.

Outlook...
Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.
Tuesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A ridge will settle over the east coast through the holiday weekend.
An increase in heat and humidity will allow some scattered showers
and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening. Winds
and waves outside of any storms will remain fairly negligible
through the next few days. The tranquil pattern will continue
through the end of the week, although thunderstorms may produce
locally higher winds and waves at times each day through the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The first extended period of summer`s warmth will be upon us this
weekend. Temperatures will climb well into the 80s, of which some
of these daily readings may near record levels. Listed below are
the records for our three climate stations.

BUFFALO...

Friday.....May 27th...Record High Maximum...89F...1978
......................Record High Minimum...69F...1991

Saturday...May 28th...Record High Maximum...86F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...69F...1911

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...87F...1987
......................Record High Minimum...68F...1987


ROCHESTER...

Friday.....May 27th...Record High Maximum...92F...1978
......................Record High Minimum...70F...1918

Saturday...May 28th...Record High Maximum...93F...1911
......................Record High Minimum...68F...1939

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...92F...2006
......................Record High Minimum...69F...1908


WATERTOWN...

Friday.....May 27th...Record High Maximum...87F...1960
......................Record High Minimum...67F...1991

Saturday...May 28th...Record High Maximum...85F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...64F...1987

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...87F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...63F...2006


A climatic day is between 1 AM EDT to 1 AM EDT.

Temperature records for Buffalo and Rochester date back to 1871,
while records for Watertown start in 1949.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH/SMITH/WOOD
CLIMATE...THOMAS



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