Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 171808
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
208 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR TO END
THE WEEKEND...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND ESPECIALLY THE
NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
RETURN LATER SUNDAY BRINGING A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE WET WEATHER
BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES MONDAY...SIGNALING A
RETURN TO SEASONABLY COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADARS THIS EARLY AFTERNOON DISPLAY JUST LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
PASSING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THIS
ACTIVITY CARRIED EASTWARD BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL END THROUGH THE
MID AFTERNOON HOURS. ELSEWHERE LARGELY CLOUDY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW
POKES OF SUNSHINE HERE AND THERE.

THESE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES IN FROM THE WEST...POSSIBLY EVEN ALLOWING
FOR A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. THE RESPITE WILL BE BRIEF
HOWEVER AS A MORE POTENT UPPER LOW/TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH MAKES ITS APPROACH.
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS UP INTO A TROUGH AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENING JUST AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH AND 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO +5C...WE MAY SEE SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES. IN FACT SHOULD
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS REACH THE 20+KFT SUGGESTED BY NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAY ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK AND THE NORTH COUNTRY ALONG WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN WITH UPWARDS OF A HALF INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAIN POSSIBLE.

ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL AID IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES DOWN TODAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF
SUNNY BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING
WILL PUSH READINGS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S EAST OF THE GENESEE
VALLEY. LOOK FOR READINGS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THIS
AREA TONIGHT WHILE TO THE WEST COOLER AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN AS
THE NEXT UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH OF COLD AIR WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION SATURDAY WITH A STRONG EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
VORTICITY MAXIMA CROSSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE SYNOPTIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX COMBINED WITH A LOW LEVEL
LAYER OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
WITH A NARROWING WINDOW OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT EAST OF THE LAKES WHERE
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL RATES AND AMOUNTS WILL BE FOUND. AS THE AXIS OF
THE SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST...WINDS IN ITS WAKE WILL VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL
COLLAPSE ENDING THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND TRANSITIONING TO A MAINLY
NORTHWEST FLOW UPSLOPE EVENT. THIS WILL KEEP THE MORE PERSISTENT
SHOWERS FEATURED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
TUG HILL EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE
QUICKLY ERODING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS
SO EXPECT THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND LAKE PLAIN REGIONS TO SEE A LARGE
DECREASE IN SHOWERS BY THE EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY WILL REMAIN TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ANY SNOW
BUT AS THE COLD AIR FLOODS IN ALOFT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL
THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH A RAW NORTHWEST WIND. THE NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL ALSO KEEP CLOUD COVER HANGING TOUGH THROUGH THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS QUICKLY CONTINUE TO STRIP AWAY LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. IN FACT THERE WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN
WHEN THE MOISTURE DRYS UP AND WHEN THE TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE
MID/LOW 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG
HILL TO SEE IF ANY WET SNOW WILL MIX IN. IF IT IS TO HAPPEN IT WILL
HAVE TO BE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AS IT APPEARS THAT
MOISTURE WILL BE TOO LIMITED LATER ON FOR WET SNOW. JUST A THIN
LAYER OF STATUS WILL LIKELY LINGER LATER SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH MODELS
INDICATE MAY ONLY BRING SOME DRIZZLE WITH CLOUD TOPS BEING WARMER
THAN -10C. LIQUID QPF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD ONLY
AVERAGE BETWEEN A THIRD AND HALF OF AN INCH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WITH ONLY AROUND A TENTH FOR THE LAKE PLAINS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ON SUNDAY WITH DRYING AND POSSIBLY
SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE DEVELOPING ALONG THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. 850MB
TEMPS OF -3C TO -6C WILL MAKE FOR A COLD DAY EVEN IF SOME SUNSHINE
DEVELOPS. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY NUDGE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S THEN
FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM SHOULD PREVENT ANY FROST CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE EAST COAST. THERE REMAINS SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WHICH WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON OUR PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...AN ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF A FEW
SHOWERS TO THE LOWER LAKES. IT WILL BE A CHILLY RAIN ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT...BUT IT APPEARS THE COLUMN IS STILL WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP
EVERYTHING LIQUID EVEN ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH
WILL CLOSE OFF OVER PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY NIGHT THEN DRIFT TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY KEEP A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE GFS KEEPS THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW JUST
EAST OF THE DELMARVA...WHILE THE ECMWF RETROGRADES THE LOW A FEW
HUNDRED MILES FARTHER WEST AND WOULD SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS BACK WEST
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. NOT SURPRISINGLY...MOST OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS FOLLOW THE OPERATIONAL GFS CLOSELY. FOLLOWING THE ECMWF
SOLUTION...HAVE INTRODUCED CHANCE POPS FOR THE NEW DAY 7 THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER SOME AFTER A VERY CHILLY SUNDAY...BUT
STILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH ONLY LOWER 50S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND UPPER 40S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK. ONE OR TWO
DAYS COULD BE EVEN COOLER IF THE COLD CORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID
LEVEL LOW SETTLES OVER THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 18Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS AND EMBEDDED MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION AS A WEALTH OF CLOUD COVER REMAINS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE REGION REMAINS BETWEEN TWO SHORTWAVES...ONE
OVER NEW ENGLAND AND ANOTHER OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION.

THIS PERIOD OF QUIET CONDITIONS WILL END AS THE SHORTWAVE...COUPLED
WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST NEARS...BRINGING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF EXTENSIVE RAIN AND LOWERING CEILINGS. THERE WILL REMAIN
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THAT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR THIS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
ANY TAF.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY AND
WHILE THE INTENSITY OF THE RAIN MAY LIGHTEN...LOCALIZED NARROW BANDS
OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS EAST OF
BOTH LAKES. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR...AND IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE THREE WESTERN TAF SITES...AND ALSO THE KART AIRFIELD.

TOWARDS NOONTIME THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE FLIGHT
CONDITIONS. THE REGION THAT WILL HAVE MINIMAL IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL BE THE GENESEE VALLEY INCLUDING THE KROC AIRFIELD.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST 20 TO
25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WINDS
WILL VEER AROUND TO WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AREAS OF MVFR WITHIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY EAST OF THE
LAKES.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MVFR...AND LOCALIZED IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH RAIN LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FRESHENING IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH WAVES ABOVE THE 4 FOOT MARK ON
THE EAST END OF LAKE ERIE BY THIS AFTERNOON...NECESSITATING A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REACH 20 TO 25 KNOTS INTO THE
BUFFALO HARBOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE
AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE A SCA FOR THE UPPER NIAGARA RIVER THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND EARLY EVENING FOR THESE WINDS.

IN FACT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TONIGHT AS ANOTHER...MORE
POTENT...DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. BRISK WINDS ALONG WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS IN PLAY ON THE LAKE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT EVEN AS WINDS
VEER TO THE NORTHWEST. A SIMILAR SITUATION WILL UNFOLD ON LAKE
ONTARIO...THOUGH WAVES WILL BE SLOWER TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THANKS TO THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPING THE BULK OF WAVE ACTION
CONFINED TO CANADIAN WATERS. HOWEVER BY SATURDAY MORNING...FLOW WILL
VEER TO THE WEST AND WAVES SHOULD QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE 4 TO 5 FOOT
RANGE ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SHORES OF THE LAKE...PERSISTING
INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF CALMER CONDITIONS TO THE LAKES
BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ON
MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 2 PM EDT
         SUNDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY
         FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EDT
         SUNDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS/WOOD






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