Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 231841
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
241 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TODAY...AND WHILE IT WILL PROVIDE OUR REGION WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. THIS WILL
CHANGE AFTER TODAY AS A SIGNIFICANT DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED. THE MERCURY WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY
MONDAY AND WILL REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE WARMTH
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY...WHICH
WILL ENCOURAGE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER PA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AN
ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
VORTMAX DROPPING OUT OF THE OTTAWA VALLEY WILL CLIP THE
AREA...BRINGING A SWATH OF MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH AREAS IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES
RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER...IN THE UPPER 50S THANKS TO A BRISK
SYNOPTICALLY-ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY LAKE BREEZE.

THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT. A SLIGHT FRESHENING OF SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH COUPLED WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES
ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER NIGHT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS
AND LOW TO MID 40S THE FARTHER INLAND ONE MOVES. A FEW OF THE
SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE SOUTHERN TIER MAY BRIEFLY DIP A DEGREE OR
TWO BELOW THE 40 DEGREE MARK...BUT FROST IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE...WHILE A SURFACE WARM
FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES SLOWLY
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. WHILE THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN
CIRRUS-LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WE STILL EXPECT A DRY AND PREDOMINANTLY SUNNY
DAY...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE CIRCULATES PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AIR INTO
OUR REGION. MORE SPECIFICALLY...850 MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO BETWEEN
+10 AND +11C SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SURFACE TEMPS REACHING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S IN MANY AREAS...WITH COOLER READINGS FOUND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN AREAS IMMEDIATELY NORTHEAST OF THE
LAKES...WHERE A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW SHOULD KEEP
READINGS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER. ALL IN ALL...IT WILL BE A FINE DAY
FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE LARGE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
FIRMLY ANCHORED OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE THE PLAINS
STATES LOW BODILY LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TO LAKE SUPERIOR. IN THE
PROCESS...THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL PUSH ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION BETWEEN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

COMPARED TO EARLIER GUIDANCE CYCLES...THE 00Z GUIDANCE SUITE HAS
CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARD A DRIER OVERALL WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...
WITH THE NAM/GFS/GEM AND EVEN THE ECMWF NOW ALL SUGGESTING THAT
THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL TEND TO REMAIN
MORE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO PROVINCE AS OPPOSED
TO OVER OUR REGION. CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE ELECTED TO CUT BACK POPS
NOTICEABLY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IN COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING WFOS...WITH ANY NOTEWORTHY PRECIP CHANCES NOW
APPEARING TO BE LARGELY CONFINED TO AREAS FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR
NORTHEASTWARD... AND PRIMARILY OVER THE FAR EASTERN FINGER
LAKES/NORTH COUNTRY AT THAT. SHOULD CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...MUCH
OF THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY COULD IN FACT TURN OUT TO BE DRY SOUTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO. WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT
AND THE ARRIVAL OF A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS...TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY ONLY FALL TO BETWEEN 55 AND 60 AND
WILL THUS AVERAGE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THOSE OF THE
PRECEDING NIGHT... WHILE HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY REACH THE
UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHILE SURGING INTO THE LOWER
AND MID 80S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AS 850 MB TEMPS THERE CLIMB TO
BETWEEN +14C AND +15C.

AS WE GET INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL MOST
LIKELY FINISH CLEARING OUR REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WHILE
A VERY MODEST ELONGATED SHORTWAVE SLOWLY EASES INTO THE REGION
FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. AS THIS FEATURE INTERACTS WITH THE
WARM AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER OUR
REGION...IT WILL PROBABLY HELP TO GENERATE AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION...FOR WHICH SOME BROADBRUSH CHANCE POPS WILL
BE IN PLAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT TO CLOSE OUT
THE PERIOD... WITH LOWS MOSTLY RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE A PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH THAT WILL REMAIN FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE PUMPING A CONTINUAL
FEED OF WARM AND HUMID AIR NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL GUARANTEE OUR REGION WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT...WITH DAILY HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING
BETWEEN THE UPPER 70S AND MID 80S EACH DAY...OR SOME 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE LATE MAY NORMALS. AT THE SAME TIME...DEWPOINTS WILL
RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND MAKE FOR MORE UNCOMFORTABLE
SLEEPING CONDITIONS AT NIGHT...WHEN OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN A LITTLE ABOVE SUCH LEVELS.

WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THESE WILL BE TIED BOTH
TO THE PASSAGE OF A NUMBER OF HARD-TO-TIME SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
RIDING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DOMINANT EAST
COAST/WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE...AS WELL AS THE DIURNAL HEATING
CYCLE WHICH WILL LEAD TO GREATER AMOUNTS OF AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY...WHEN LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCES WILL PROBABLY ALSO COME INTO PLAY. GIVEN THE INHERENT
DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING AND TIMING THE RESPONSIBLE SYNOPTIC
FEATURES THIS FAR OUT...BROADBRUSH LOW TO MID CHANCE-RANGE POPS
APPEAR TO BE IN ORDER FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD AT PRESENT...EVEN
THOUGH CONSIDERABLE PORTIONS OF IT WILL LIKELY BE RAINFREE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TO
THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SCT-BKN MID-
LEVEL CIGS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING WITH CLEARING EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
AND NORTH COUNTRY MAY GENERATE SOME LLWS AT KART/KGTB LATER
TONIGHT...AFTER 03Z...ENDING DURING THE MORNING AS THE LOW LEVELS
MIX OUT.

OTHERWISE EXPECT GUSTY SW LAKE BREEZES TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS
EVENING...GIVING WAY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND SW FLOW UNDER 10KTS.
SW LAKE BREEZES SHOULD KICK UP ONCE AGAIN AFTER 15Z SUN WITH HIGH
AND EVENTUALLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE SW LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD WELL IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.


OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOL/SCT -SHRA/TSRA

&&

.MARINE...
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TODAY...THEN WILL MAKE ITS WAY OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST THIS EVENING
AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES ACROSS LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WINDS WILL REMAIN A LITTLE STRONGER ON THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...HENCE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT.

WHILE WINDS AND WAVES ON THE LAKES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...THERE WILL BE
AN INCREASING RISK FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SLZ022-
         024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...RSH/WOOD



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