Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 292356
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
756 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE END OF SUMMER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT PLENTY OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR MAINLY SPRINKLES AS ELEVATED SHOWERS FALL INTO DRIER AIR BELOW.
THE ADDED CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS...AND ALSO HELP TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE
MILD SIDE. EXPECT LOW TO MID 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL REGION.

ON SUNDAY...ANY SCATTERED SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES WILL END EARLY AS THE WEAK
CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED VORTICITY CENTER MOVES EAST AND DAMPENS
OUT. DURING THE AFTERNOON THE REMNANTS OF THE WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. SOME MODEST INCREASE
IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH MODEL POINT SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING AROUND 1000J/KG OF SBCAPE BY MID AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK ASCENT...ALONG WITH INLAND
ADVANCING LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN ERIE AND
WYOMING COUNTIES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER. FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA LESSER MOISTURE AND FORCING SHOULD ALLOW DRY
CONDITIONS.

OTHERWISE EXPECT A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER TO THE SOUTH OF THE
THRUWAY FROM THE DEPARTING MORNING WAVE AND THEN AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE SUN IN AREAS CLOSER TO
THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO PUSH SOUTH. 850MB
TEMPS AROUND 14C SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG
THE LAKESHORES WHERE WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL ALLOW LOCAL LAKE
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
SLIDE FROM NEW YORK STATE INTO NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER/INTERIOR FINGER LAKES AT THE
START OF SUNDAY EVENING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH THE DEPARTURE
OF THIS FEATURE AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...LEAVING BEHIND
QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURE-
WISE...EXPECT LOWS TO MOSTLY RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

AFTER THAT...THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE
A PERSISTENT SURFACE HIGH EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...ALONG WITH A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. TOGETHER...THESE TWO FEATURES WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED FAIR AND DRY WEATHER...AS WELL AS MIDSUMMER-LIKE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO AVERAGE OUT IN
THE MID 80S...WHILE NIGHTTIME LOWS /AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO CONTINUED LARGELY
DRY WEATHER AND MIDSUMMER-LIKE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY FOR OUR REGION...
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AGAIN AVERAGING IN THE MID 80S...AND NIGHTTIME
LOWS MOSTLY RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A WEAK SURFACE FRONT COULD SAG INTO OUR
REGION AT SOME POINT LATER ON IN THE WEEK...ANY SUCH FEATURE WOULD
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE...AND WOULD ALSO LIKELY BE
STARVED FOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. GIVEN BOTH THIS AND CONTINUED
VARIANCES SEEN AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO
THE TIMING /OR EVEN THE PRESENCE OF/ THIS FEATURE...HAVE KEPT POPS
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK CONFINED TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE AND BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT AND MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES TONIGHT. WEAK WARM ADVECTION
IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES WILL BRING A
SLOW INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING FROM WEST
TO EAST. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH ASCENT TO GENERATE A FEW SPRINKLES
TONIGHT WITH A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. CIGS/VSBY WILL REMAIN VFR AS THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN
UNSATURATED AND QUITE DRY.

ON SUNDAY...ANY SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
WILL END BY MID MORNING. THE REMAINS OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES. AGAIN CIGS/VSBY WILL
REMAIN VFR...ALTHOUGH IF A THUNDERSTORM IS ABLE TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON IT WOULD PRODUCE BRIEF/LOCAL MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE
NATION. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 12 KNOTS OR LESS WITH WAVES 2
FEET OR LESS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/WCH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK



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