Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 261046
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
646 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED
TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING CONTINUED HOT AND DRY
WEATHER SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE PEE DEE REGION. AREA OBS
SHOWING VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE IN PLACES...WITH SOME AROUND A
HALF A MILE AT TIMES. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY 8
AM...AND HAVE ISSUED A SPS MENTIONING THE CONDITIONS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND DAY...A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS KEEP THE AREA DRY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP POSSIBLY ACROSS THE EXTREME EAST CLOSER TO THE SEA-BREEZE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WENT WITH A GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR
AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS...WHICH GIVES HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ONE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST
TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER ONE BEGINNING TO DIG SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THIS GENERALLY PUTS THE REGION UNDER A FLAT RIDGE
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

FOR SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES DIGGING ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE LOWER MID-WEST UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL CARVE OUT A DEEPER EAST
COAST TROUGH INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...MAINLY
DUE TO SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE DOWNSLOPING SHOULD ALSO HELP
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY IN MANY AREAS. GOOD SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD ALSO KEEP TEMPS UP...WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MAIN FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION MONDAY MORNING...AND
SHOULD MOVE JUST OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY
NIGHT. MONDAY SHOULD BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EVEN SO...ANY RAINFALL SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY DUE TO THE FASTER MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A DEEP LONG WAVE PATTERN ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH A STRONG RIDGE IN THE WEST. THIS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN SOME QUITE PLEASANT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. SURFACE
TROUGH MAY STALL OUT NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD
KEEP THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND KEEP
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA GENERALLY DRY. MODELS DO BEGIN BRINGING
INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR A POSSIBILITY OF FOG NEAR
DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY AT AGS/DNL AND OGB WHERE RAIN FELL EARLIER.
LOCAL RADIATION FOG FORMULA HINTS AT MVFR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW
HOURS 09Z-12Z. WILL MENTION FOG MOST SITES WITH 3-5SM
VISIBILITIES. AT AGS...HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY MORE PESSIMISTIC AS
OBSERVATIONS ALREADY SHOWING PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS.

WEAKENING FRONT AND BEST MOISTURE EXPECTED TO PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE TERMINALS TODAY AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
DAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MINIMAL CONVECTION EXPECTED SUN.
BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&


$$









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