Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 011546
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1146 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MONDAY AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
BE NEAR THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PERSISTENT SLOW MOVING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX (MCV) CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL RATES ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES HAVE RESULTED AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...MORNING STRATUS HAS TRANSITIONED TO MORE DIURNAL
STRATOCUMULUS AND CUMULUS FIELD WITH SOME DEVELOPING SHOWERS IN
THE LOW COUNTRY AND ACROSS EASTERN GEORGIA. EXPECTING SOME CAPPING
OF THE CONVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH
SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR MOVING OVER THE REGION NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. HOWEVER...DESTABILIZATION WITH HEATING AND THE DRIER AIR
ALOFT COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED CONVECTION WITH ONE OF TWO STORMS
BECOMING STRONG AND POSING A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. HAVE ADJUSTED
HOURLY POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NORTHERN COMPLEX AND REFLECT
SCATTERED NATURE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE MOIST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE. ANOTHER IN A
SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA BUT
THE MODELS INDICATE WEAK LIFT. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTED
CHANCE POPS. CLOUDINESS AND MIXING SHOULD HELP HOLD UP
TEMPERATURES. THE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

THE MOIST LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THERE WAS MODEL
INCONSISTENCY WITH UPPER LIFT MONDAY...BUT MORE AGREEMENT WITH A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
FORECASTED CHANCE POPS MONDAY...AND LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING CLOSER TO MAXIMUM HEATING. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

THE MODELS DISPLAYED THE COLD FRONT IN THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.
THERE MAY BE DIMINISHED MOISTURE BEHIND A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE ECMWF DEPICTED THE MOST MOISTURE. WE FORECASTED
CHANCE POPS WHICH WAS SUPPORTED BY THE NAM AND GFS MOS. FOLLOWED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CONSISTENCY WITH THE PLACEMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. DRYING MAY DOMINATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW NORTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...AN H5 CUT-OFF LOW AND
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA FOR A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTED
CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT BELOW 20 PERCENT
CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS WERE
CONSISTENT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.

MORNING STRATUS HAS LIFTED INTO A STRATOCUMULUS FIELD WITH SOME
LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT OR ABOVE 2000 FT BUT THESE SHOULD LIFT AS
WELL BY 17Z. MORNING THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY HAVE REMAINED NORTH
OF THE TERMINALS AND ONLY SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HEATING. WILL AMEND FORECAST TO INCLUDE THUNDER IF
ANY TERMINAL BECOMES THREATENED. OTHERWISE EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 TO 12 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER ROUND OF NOCTURNAL STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND A LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A
FEW HOURS AT THE TERMINALS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNINGS AS THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED
CONVECTION MAY CAUSE SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HC
AVIATION...HC



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