Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 040350
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1050 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST
THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH
COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE H25 JET WILL HELP SUPPORT AREAS OF RAIN.
RADAR TRENDS SUPPORTED MOST OF THE RAIN IN THE EAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL REMAIN MILD IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL EXPECTED TO STALL JUST OFF THE COAST
AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO
CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS TO OUR WEST.
MODELS ALSO INDICATING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. MOS GUIDANCE
INDICATING CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MIDLANDS WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS FAR WEST. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
MODELS CONSENSUS SHOW STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN THE ONE TO TWO INCH
RANGE.

BY FRIDAY MORNING THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE MIDLANDS
WITH THE STALLED FRONT FINALLY MOVING FARTHER OFFSHORE. DRY
FORECAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S THURSDAY AN FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO COOL TO THE
MID/UPPER 30S THURSDAY NIGHT THEN RANGE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S FRIDAY NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND WIND BECOME LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE
SOUTHERN  PLAINS SATURDAY...CLOSING OFF SUNDAY AS IT CROSSES THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS JUST OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY.

YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN THE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME-FRAME. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON THE SPECIFICS
OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST LOW POPS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BUT CONFIDENCE LOW DUE TO THE LACK OF MODEL CONSISTENCY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD.

SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVING
TOWARD THE COAST. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED TO THE COAST AND WITH
LITTLE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA NO ADDITIONAL THUNDER IS
EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE...THEN ANOTHER WAVE ALONG THE FRONT
WILL PUSH SHOWERS BACK INTO THE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO REMAIN LIGHT WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE
INTENSITY...WITH CIGS PREDOMINATELY MVFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
VEER TO WESTERLY BY DAYBREAK AND REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5 AND 8 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$


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