Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 230714
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
314 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level ridging will weaken across the area today. An upper
level trough over the eastern part of the country will bring
increasing chances of thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday.
Above normal temperatures today will moderate to near normal by
mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
High pressure will continue to weaken today as low pressure
troughing to the north starts to dig south. It will be hot and
humid with highs in the 90s and dewpoints in the 70s. This will
also lead to increased instability. However, the strongest
shortwave energy will remain to the north, so only scattered
pulse thunderstorms are expected. Best thunderstorms chances
will be across the Piedmont and northern Midlands ahead of the
lee trough. Precipitable water will be over 2 inches, so heavy
rain will be possible with slow moving storms. Isolated severe
storms with strong downdrafts or large hail are also possible,
but less likely due to a lack of shear.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The upper level trough will continue digging across the eastern
states tonight through Monday.  Models indicate a lingering surface
trough over the region. PWAT is forecast to be around 2 inches with
strong instability developing Monday afternoon. The combination
of moisture and instability coupled with convergence along the
surface trough will hold the chance of showers and thunderstorms
across the region. With the freezing level above 15 kft expect
the main threat from thunderstorms to remain damaging wind
gusts. However...a slow storm motion could produce locally
heavy rainfall. High temperatures on Monday should reach the low
to mid 90s with overnight lows in the mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Models remain in good agreement through the long term with the
upper level trough exiting the region Tuesday then returning
Thursday through Saturday as the next system drops from Canada into
the Great Lakes region. This will keep an influx of Gulf moisture in
the forecast. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will continue
each day with temperatures near normal...daytime highs in the
upper 80s to low 90s and overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the terminals through
the forecast period. Tonight will feature mainly clear skies
and relatively light winds at the terminals under the influence
of high pressure. The development of a low-level jet tonight
should inhibit fog formation. A strengthening southwest flow on
Sunday will allow increased moisture to advect into the area,
with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to develop in
the afternoon. Given uncertainty in the coverage and timing of
thunderstorms, have kept mention out of the TAFs at this time.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increasing chances of afternoon/evening
thunderstorms, and late night/early morning fog/stratus, Monday
through Wednesday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$


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