Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 181445

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
945 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2018

Cold and dry high pressure moving into the forecast area from
the west will be over the region tonight through Saturday. The
high will be off the Southeast Coast Sunday. Moisture will
increase ahead of a cold front Monday. A warming trend will
occur over the weekend and early next week.


Temperatures were well below freezing early this morning.
Despite the drying wind, there may be areas of black ice on
some roads because of lingering moisture from yesterday`s
precipitation and the freezing temperatures. The winter weather
advisory for black ice will expire at 10 am with road
temperatures warming above freezing.

Dry surface high pressure will move into the area with h5
confluent heights should help maintain clear skies. Expect
temperatures to remain well below normal through tonight. Cold
air moving from the northwest over areas with snow cover into
the Midlands and CSRA will be offset somewhat by downslope flow.
Therefore, followed the guidance consensus temperatures except
favored the colder guidance in the north section because of
yesterday`s snowfall.


Dry surface high pressure will continue to dominate through
Saturday night. Little moisture will be associated with a mid-
level shortwave trough moving into the region late Saturday or
Saturday night. There may be cloudiness associated with this
feature. The GFS and ECMWF MOS were consistent indicating dry
weather. It should be not quite as cold because of air mass
modification. The temperature guidance was close. The pressure
gradient will be weak with the surface high in the region. The
NAM and GFS MOS support wind 10 mph or less.


Warming will continue Sunday as high pressure shifts offshore.
The GFS and ECMWF were consistent keeping significant moisture
associated with a mid-level shortwave trough south and east of
the forecast area. More significant upper troughing will begin
to affect the region Monday. The models display the associated
cold front approaching Monday and moving through the area Monday
night or early Tuesday morning. A dry air mass will likely
dominate behind the front during much of Tuesday and Wednesday.
The GFS and ECMWF MOS support the highest pops Monday night
with values around 50 percent. The MOS supports above normal
temperatures through the period.


VFR conditions expected through the period.

Expect clear skies and light WNW winds as high pressure builds
back into the region from the west. Tonight, winds will be light
and variable or calm at times. The dry airmass will likely
preclude any fog formation.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation
expected through Monday.




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