Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
FXUS62 KCAE 220737
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
337 AM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017
An approaching low pressure system will slowly cross the region
Sunday through Monday night bringing showers and thunderstorms.
Dry weather and above normal temperatures will return by the
middle of next week as high pressure takes control.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Upper ridge axis offshore east coast with upper low over the
Plains. Surface stationary front to the north across North
Carolina with surface ridge offshore SC extending into the area.
A few showers moving across the Upstate this morning associated
with weak short wave. Moisture appears limited across central SC
and CSRA today with mid level cap in place. This should result
in very limited convection today with lack of strong lift and
limited instability although a few showers possible in the east
Midlands near sea breeze and to the north near the stalled
front. Warm air advection today with strong southwest boundary
layer flow expect temperatures a degree or two warmer most areas
than yesterday. Continued well above normal temperatures around
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
As the upper level low closes off and moves southeast from the
Plains and surface low develops over north Georgia
tonight...front to the north begins to back door into the
area...appears to become stationary across the north central
Midlands and Piedmont. A few showers possible as front moves
into the region late Tonight mainly north of CAE. With front
across the area Sunday...a tight temperature gradient is
expected and lower confidence for max temperatures. Wedge
conditions may develop into the central Midlands but more
certain to the north. Forecast temperatures from upper 60s north
to mid 80s southeast Sunday afternoon. Low pressure will
approach the region from Georgia during the day along with cold
front. Thunderstorms expected to develop along the cold front
and the stationary boundary in the area. There is a marginal
risk of severe weather mainly during peak heating in the
afternoon with SB cape 500-1000 J/kg and moderately strong deep
layer shear. The shear may be enhanced near the quasi-
stationary front in the central Midlands. There is also a heavy
rain threat as precipitable water increases to above 1.5 inches
with training possible.
The upper level trough looks to close off over the TN valley on
Sunday...then cross just south of the forecast area Monday
afternoon and Monday night. Will see a continued chance for
showers and thunderstorms given associated cold air and
divergence aloft. May have hail threat Monday. Expect storm
total rainfall of generally 1 to 2 inches. High temperatures for
Monday should be in the mid 60s to mid 70s due to clouds and
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The upper low and surface low pressure will be off the coast by
Tuesday morning and moving northward away from the region.
Models indicate rising heights and high pressure building over
the southeastern conus through the end of next week. Dry weather
and above normal temperatures will return for the long term.
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Latest ACARS sounding at CAE confirms BUFKIT indications of a
25 knot low level jet, so early morning fog is not expected to
be an issue. Frontal boundary and best moisture, and associated
thunderstorm activity, will again remain well north of the
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Patchy fog/low clouds and
associated restrictions possible Sunday morning. Thunderstorms,
possibly severe, late Sunday afternoon/Sunday night. Low
cloudiness with CIG restrictions and showers late Sunday