Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 211346
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
946 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS THIS
MORNING AND OFFSHORE OF NC THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WILL MOVE EAST AND
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS EVENING. ANY RAINFALL EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE SC/NC BORDER. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. AS
THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
ALLOW DIURNAL CUMULUS TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET RESULTING IN PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL BE TRYING TO OVERTAKE THE REGION THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL KEEP WINDS BETWEEN 8 AND 10 MPH RESULTING IN GOOD...BUT NOT
OPTIMAL...RADIATIONAL COOLING. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH CROSSING THE MID MS VALLEY FRIDAY AND
MOVING OFFSHORE OF DELMARVA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR RESULTING IN A
DRY FORECAST. WITH THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES
EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH GULF
MOISTURE TO BEGIN RETURNING TO THE AREA. HAVE DECREASED POPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SLIGHTLY AS CURRENT MODEL TENDENCY HAS BEEN
OVERDONE IN REGARD TO POPS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER
THIS MORNING THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING. WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING QUICKLY WITHIN THE 500MB WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO
CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...FROM 06Z-15Z OR SO. DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH IMPACT AT THE TERMINALS OTHER THAN SOME INCREASED CLOUDS THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP THIS MORNING FROM THE WEST
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
DURING THE 16Z-00Z TIME FRAME. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING SHIFTING WINDS MORE TO THE NORTH BY THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
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