Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 202000
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
400 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER
EASTWARD TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED.
THE PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE DURING THE REST
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. DRY AIR IS
IN PLACE. SOME STRATOCUMULUS OVER PART OF THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT
SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDINESS SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT. IT WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION HAS OCCURRED WITH WARMING IN THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND DEVELOPING TROUGH. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO
AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER ENERGY WILL DIVE DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY...WITH
AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY IN PLACE...IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR
THAT MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED FOR OUR
REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
ALL OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS WITH POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHEAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY
RIDGES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED
COOL AND DRY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLEAR SKIES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AS
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES. LIGHT SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE
DAY BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
OVER THE REGION TUESDAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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