Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 280231 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1031 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT AND ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT
OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATE EVENING REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED CONVECTION LINGERING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA NEAR THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA
AND EASTWARD AS WELL AS DIMINISHING SHOWERS IN PARTS OF THE
WESTERN SC MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT. THE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
TIED TO WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT 925MB AND 850MB WITH SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE THE
CONVECTION MAY LINGER FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS AND COULD DRIFT INTO
OUR NORTHERN MIDLANDS COUNTIES SO WILL INCREASE POPS IN THAT AREA
FOR A FEW HOURS THROUGH 06Z-07Z AND DIMINISH POPS AFTER THAT TIME.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD BE POSSIBLE AS STORM MOTION IS VERY
SLOW AND HAVE NOTICED SOME BACK BUILDING OF THE STORMS IN NC.

INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT DUE TO CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
AND THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRATUS CLOUDS THAT MAY FORM AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND A WEAK
LOW LEVEL JET. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENING SOME ALONG THE E CONUS. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED
FRONT TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THU...UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST...AS E CONUS
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. IT APPEARS THE WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH MAY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST SOME...WITH SOME
INDICATIONS OF POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TRYING TO BUILD DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR N/NE FA. AS A
RESULT...GUIDANCE POPS APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE SOUTH
AND WEST FA.

FRI THRU MON...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO
SHIFT WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO
OUR REGION AND STALL. IN ADDITION...ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF LATEST HPC GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...WITH INCREASING POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EARLY MORNING
MVFR/IFR AT AGS/OGB FOR TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...WHILE AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES
WILL KEEP THE GENERAL WIND FLOW OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT. NAM AND GFS BUFKIT
TIME SECTIONS SHOWING A WEAK OVERNIGHT LOW-LEVEL JET.  MODELS
INDICATING SOME POOLING OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN...WHICH MAY
SHOW ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TOWARDS SUNRISE AT
AGS/OGB. THE MODELS DO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN SOME OF THE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE...SO LESS DRY AIR ALOFT TO WORK WITH...WHICH MAY LIMIT FOG
AND A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE FOR STRATUS. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO TO
ACCOUNT FOR THAT.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 6
KNOTS OR LESS. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE CONCERNING TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
AVIATION...BC


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