Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 150142
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
942 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. CHANCES OF RAIN
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES ON
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVED INTO THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA FROM EASTERN GEORGIA THIS EVENING. THIS AREA
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG I-20. ACTIVITY HAS INTENSIFIED
OVER AIKEN COUNTY AT 0130Z...RAP MODEL HAS FORECAST LI`S AROUND
-1 OR -2 OVERNIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT IN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. HEAVIER CONVECTION LIKELY ALONG A COLD
FRONT PASSING THROUGH EASTERN GA AND SC ON TUESDAY...TIMING OF
CONVECTION 12Z CSRA TO 17Z I-95. SPC SHOWS SLIGHT SEVERE THREAT
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY MORNING
AND BEYOND. MOS TEMPS ACCEPTED.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE MIDWEST WILL SWING AROUND THE BASE
OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND BE OVER SC TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE APPEARS STRONG AHEAD OF THE FRONT. UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE APPEARS STRONG. AREA
IN FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET. WITH STRONG
LIFT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. SURFACE BASED LI -1 TO -4 AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ALONG WITH STRONG SHEAR AIDED BY 50KT 850 MB JET STREAK. EXPECT
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...POSSIBLY ISOLATED
SEVERE THREAT ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST MIDLANDS WHERE INSTABILITY
STRONGEST. CLEARING DEVELOPING RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY
EVENING. CUT POPS BACK FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS MOISTURE
DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS. LOWERED
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT BASED ON LATEST MOS TRENDS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH MIDLANDS
BUT WINDS STAYING UP SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE FROST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY THEN MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY. AIR MASS
APPEARS QUITE DRY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS STALL THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...AND BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF STILL INDICATING MOISTURE RETURN/ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR OUR
REGION IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO
THE SATURDAY TIME PERIOD. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES WITH
THIS NEXT SYSTEM AS CURRENT RUN SEEMS TO SHOW LESS MOISTURE THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SMALL CHANCE FOR BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE 60S DUE TO
POTENTIAL OF A WEAK WEDGE SCENARIO...BUT REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S FOR SATURDAY AS MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST FOR LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE WILL
BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS SHOWN
BY THE GFS. SOME PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO EARLY MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY...BUT CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MVFR AND POSSIBLY
IFR LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

WV LOOP SHOWS DEEP TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TOWARD THE ERN U.S.. S/W ACTIVITY IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS
FROM WESTERN HALF OF SC INTO CENTRAL GA. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH OR
TEMPO GROUP THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR ANY SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES.
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT IN TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
NEARS THE CWA. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS WILL BE REDUCED TO
MVFR AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE MUCH OF EARLY
TUESDAY. COULD EVEN SEE A PERIOD OF IFR WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH
AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALSO MENTIONED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDER
AS SPC AS AREA OUTLOOKED FOR SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE ON TUESDAY. LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE
FORECAST AREA. NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT RAIN.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
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