Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS62 KCAE 170349

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1049 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2017

Weak cold front well offshore. High pressure builds back into
the area tonight, despite a secondary cold front dropping south
into the region. High pressure will control the region through
Saturday when the next cold front will approach from the
northwest. The front will rapidly cross the region Saturday
night with light rain. High pressure returns for Sunday into the
middle of next week.


This mornings cold front is well offshore, and high pressure is
building back into the region. Skies remain mostly clear, with
only some high level clouds moving across the region. Despite
clear skies, given warmer temperatures today and higher
dewpoints, temperatures are not falling as fast as last night.
However, a secondary cold front will drop south into the region
overnight ushering in drier air, and lows will be similar to or
only slightly warmer than last night, in the mid 30s to low 40s.


Surface high pressure will build over the Carolinas on Friday,
then shift eastward Friday night, providing dry weather and
mainly clear skies. Highs Friday will be in the lower to mid
60s, with nighttime lows in the upper 30s north to the mid 40s

A southwest return flow will strengthen on Saturday as the
surface high shifts into the western Atlantic and a cold front
approaches from the northwest. Any precipitation will remain
west of the area during the day, with temperatures warming to
highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

A deepening upper level trough will push the cold front through
the area Saturday. The chance of showers will increase west of
the I-20 corridor Saturday evening, then spread west across the
remainder of the area during the overnight hours. Temperatures
should remain mild ahead of the front. A strengthening low level
jet could keep winds well mixed through the night, with gusty
conditions possible on area lakes.


The cold front will push well east of the area Sunday, with dry
air and strong cold air advection expected in its wake,
resulting in breezy conditions across the area. High pressure
will then prevail into early next week, resulting in well below
normal temperatures.

The upper level pattern remains somewhat amplified later in the
week, but large model differences result in a lower than normal
confidence forecast. Given the uncertainty, will keep any
mention of rain out of the forecast, but the latest ECMWF is
suggesting a developing wedge could result in unsettled
conditions toward the end of the forecast period.


VFR conditions generally expected through the 24 hr forecast

High pressure will continue to build over the area tonight and a
weak backdoor reinforcing frontal boundary will move through
around dawn. Dewpoint depressions have dropped to 1-2 degrees at
fog prone AGS/OGB and cannot rule out a brief period of vsby
restrictions before a 20 knot low level jet develops after
06z which should keep the boundary layer disturbed preventing
fog formation along with drier air arriving late. Winds light
to calm overnight then will pick up from the northeast around
5-7 knots.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Breezy conditions are expected
Saturday and Sunday associated with another passing cold front
with a wind shift from southwest to northwest.




$$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.