Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS62 KCAE 271230
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
830 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. DRIER CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVERGENCE NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY THE GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ENHANCED BY
UPPER TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE AREA INDICATES STORM ORGANIZATION.
THE MODELS FORECAST H85 WINDS NEAR 30 KNOTS. DAMAGING WIND AND
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2 INCHES AND POSSIBLE STORM TRAINING
INDICATES AN EXCESSIVE RAIN THREAT.

THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM-TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTS GENERAL WIND GUSTS
NEAR 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

IT WILL NOT BE AS HOT TODAY COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS BECAUSE OF
CLOUDINESS AND DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING. THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.
THE FRONT MAY STALL IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION. THE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE SHOULD DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT BECAUSE OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION
AND NOCTURNAL COOLING. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. THE SURFACE
FRONT MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST DRYING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A MID-LEVEL CAP...A
FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS BY AFTERNOON...BUT
LIKELY WIDELY SCATTERED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER...MID 80S NORTH TO AROUND 90 EAST. MOISTURE SHIFTS FARTHER
EAST MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER AS THE AIR
MASS MODERATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DE-AMPLIFYING THE UPPER
TROUGH AND SHIFTING IT EAST BY MIDWEEK. INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S
SUNDAY...AROUND 90 MONDAY...AND 90 TO 95 TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT THERE WILL
BE RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES.

CONVERGENCE NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THE
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY THE GREATER THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE NOT
FORECASTED THUNDERSTORMS EXPLICITLY BECAUSE OF TIMING UNCERTAINTY
AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME...BUT HAVE INCLUDED A VICINITY MENTION DURING
THE MOST LIKELY TIME.

SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ENHANCED BY UPPER TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE
AREA INDICATES STORM ORGANIZATION. STRONG WIND AND VERY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM-TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTS GENERAL WIND GUSTS
NEAR 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

OTHER THAN IN SHOWERS...INSTABILITY AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT THE
FOG THREAT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY BRING IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.