Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 281047
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
647 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE GULF COAST TODAY AND
SLOWLY MOVE EAST...BRINGING RAIN INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE TUESDAY...AND
PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST.
FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA (FA) WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST. A HEALTHY
SUPPLY OF CLOUDINESS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. INCREASING LOW
LEVEL EAST FLOW WILL PROVIDE SOME MOISTURE INCREASE...AND POSSIBLE
SHOWER ACTIVITY...FOR THE SOUTHERN FA LATER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER ENERGY OVER SE TX WILL SHIFT EAST AND PROMOTE A LOW
PRESSURE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WHICH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST AND PASS SOUTH OF OUR FA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL PROVIDE PRECIPITATION APPROACHING OUR FA FROM THE
WEST TONIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION COVERAGE EXPECTED
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE PROGGED...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES.
MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL POPS. MODELS TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH WITH
LOW TRACK...SO EXPECT MAINLY RAIN OR SHOWERS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDER MAINLY SOUTH FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING AND DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW...COUPLED WITH UPPER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SECOND UPPER
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH FROM THE NW...TO PROVIDE LINGERING
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER CHANCES TUESDAY. UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST
AND SOME UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE REGION WED/THU. DRIER AIR
TO ENTER THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST.
MODELS TRENDING DRIER WED/THU WITH LESS INDICATIONS OF LINGERING
WEDGE-LIKE CONDITIONS. GFS/ECMWF APPEAR TO BE SPEEDING UP THE
TIMING OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH/FRONT FOR FRI/FRI NT TIME
FRAME...WHICH BOTH MODELS NOW HAVE MOVING THROUGH BY 12Z SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL INDUCE SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES TODAY. ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS ISENTROPIC
LIFTING INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
LESS THAN 10 MPH EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST TIME FRAME. LOW VFR
CIGS TO START THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WITH HEIGHTS AROUND
3500 TO 6000 FT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING WITH LITTLE RAINFALL AS THERE REMAINS SOME DRY AIR IN
PLACE THAT WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME FIRST BEFORE REACHING THE
SURFACE. CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR AFTER 05Z AGS/DNL AND 07Z
CAE/CUB/OGB WITH POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AGS/DNL TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL ZONE
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE FRONT. MVFR/IFR MAY ALSO OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT AS A
SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN ONCE AGAIN SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





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