Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
FXUS62 KCAE 222007
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
407 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016
A frontal zone will be just north of the forecast area through
Thursday. The front will be stalled near the area over the
weekend. A pressure ridge extending from the Atlantic westward
through the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue to limit
moisture in the forecast area.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Radar shows a few isolated showers developing across the central
Midlands this afternoon as temperatures have risen into the upper
90s. A rumble of thunder is also possible. Have updated the
forecast to include a slight chance of shra/tsra to include the
central Midlands through the remainder of the afternoon into early
this evening. Otherwise, visible satellite showing MCS moving
through the Ohio River Valley region of western Kentucky, and
heading southeastward. This is generally along and just south of a
stationary front situated along same region, extending eastward
into the central Mid- Atlantic this afternoon. Most models
continue to track this activity off to the southeast along the
front, keeping the majority of it just off to the north of the
CWA. The current trend of increasing pops to slight chance across
the northern counties still appears sound since a few models do
bring an isolated thunderstorm close to the NC/SC state line late
this afternoon and into this evening. Expecting dry conditions
across the CSRA where the upper ridge off to the southwest should
have a little more control. Bufkit data also shows better
instability across the north in comparison to areas further south.
As for temperatures this afternoon, expecting readings in the
middle to upper 90s, which continues the trend of being slightly
above guidance. Overnight lows should only fall into the middle
70s in most areas due to good mixing overnight.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Surface troughing will moving into the area with a weak frontal
boundary across the mid Atlantic states during the day Thursday
with the front sliding southward Friday night. The front will move
central NC Friday morning into the forecast area Friday afternoon
with the front very slowly moving southward Friday night. With the
dynamics remaining north of the area Thursday and pwat values
remaining below 1.5 inches have kept chances of convection just
north of the forecast area. Convection will move into the forecast
area on Friday as the front moves into the area...and with
temperatures in the upper 90s and pwat values increasing to around
2 inches there is potential for widespread convection Friday
afternoon into Friday evening. Have increased pops slightly and
will continue to monitor frontal progression Thursday and adjust
accordingly. Temperatures through the short term will be in the
upper 90s to near 100 with overnight lows in the middle 70s.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Models are in good agreement through the long term with some
differences in timing and intensity early next week. Frontal
boundary will be just across the southern Midlands and CSRA
Saturday morning then slowly become north south oriented over
easter GA Saturday afternoon. This will continue the chance of
showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening
mainly across the CSRA. Front will remain stalled just west of the
forecast area Sunday and Monday Then move back into the area late
Monday into Tuesday as low pressure tracks through the Great Lakes
region. Models handle the front differently with the GFS stalling
the front over the southern Midlands while the ECMWF pushes the
front south of the area. Have remained with slight chance pops for
much of the weekend with chance pops for early next week.
Temperatures through the long term will be near to above normal.
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High confidence for VFR conditions through the TAF period.
High pressure will remain centered south of the TAF sites and a cold
front will remain north of the area. Few to scattered cumulus
field should once again be across the region through the afternoon
before dissipating by sunset. The only other clouds this evening
would be cirrus debris from convection across NC this evening.
At this point do not anticipate any convection near taf sites.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...The chance for mainly diurnal
convection will increase Friday through Sunday as a frontal
boundary stalls in the area.