Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 240612
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
212 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL
BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADAR COVERAGE BECOMING ISOLATED...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT AS LOW-LEVELS STABILIZE. MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. CAN NOT
RULE OUT PATCHY FOG TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
AROUND 2.0 INCHES. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS NOTED MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE REGIONS. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOW TO
MODERATE. HAVE RANGED POPS FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST. AIR MASS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE STRONGER.
ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. PREFER WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS OF THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH EARLY MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE AT AGS/OGB.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TN. WINDS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 4 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE SCATTERED CLOUDS HELP
TO PREVENT FOG...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FOG PRONE AGS AND OGB
WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 08 AND 12Z. MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT.
HAVE REMAINED WITH VCSH AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE
REMAIN LOW. FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE TAF SITES AFTER 25/00Z
WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY
AROUND 8 KNOTS THIS MORNING...VEERING TO WESTERLY AND INCREASING
TO 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH 25/00Z...FINALLY
SUBSIDING TO WESTERLY AROUND 7 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO
DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







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