Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 021831
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
131 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY EARLY THIS
EVENING NEAR THE FRONT...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES.
FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING FROM THE CSRA AND MOVING EASTWARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIGS RISING THIS AFTERNOON AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO LAST LONG AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AGAIN AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE BEGINS
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. DEVELOPING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO
SOME LIGHT RAIN AFTER 06Z. MVFR VSBYS/IFR CIGS AFTER 14Z AS COLD
AIR WEDGE SETS UP.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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