Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
FXUS62 KCAE 230903
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
503 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016
Low pressure near the Delmarva coast today will continue moving
northeastward. High pressure moving into the forecast area from
the west today will be over the area tonight and off the southeast
coast Tuesday. The high will continue to ridge into the forecast
area from the Atlantic through Friday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The models show the upper low over the Delmarva region today off
the New Jersey coast tonight. Some wrap-around moisture with cold
temperatures aloft combined with diurnal heating could help
support a few showers and thunderstorms in the extreme north part
of the forecast area this afternoon. The HRRR and SPC WRF
displayed isolated coverage and we forecasted just slight chance
pops. Further drying will occur tonight as the low lifts farther
northeastward. The temperature guidance was consistent.
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The models showed surface ridging extending into the forecast
area from the Atlantic with flat upper ridging moving into the
area Tuesday through Wednesday. Time-height displays indicated
little moisture. The NAM and GFS MOS had pops less than 20 percent.
We kept the dry forecast. Followed the guidance consensus for the
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The medium-range models displayed ridging from the Atlantic
dominating during much of the medium-range period. Compared to the
ECMWF, the GFS was more pronounced showing low pressure off the
southeast coast toward the end of the period. Both models
indicated some increase in moisture circulating into the area,
but the moisture appeared to generally remain shallow. The GFS
and ECMWF MOS supported pops increasing to 20 to 30 percent over
the weekend. The MOS had temperatures near normal.
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
vfr conditions expected through the taf period.
Upper level low continues slowly tracking through the central
Atlantic states with an upper level trough currently moving
through the NC Mountains. Widely scattered showers continue north
of the taf sites and latest radar trends suggest that there will
be little impact at any site. Fog is not expected overnight due
to dry air mass in place. Disturbance will move offshore by
daybreak with diurnal cumulus around 5 kft through the late
morning and afternoon. Winds will be northwesterly at 8 knots or
less through the period.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation
expected through Friday.