Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 171730
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
130 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. SOME DRIER AIR AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST
WILL REDUCE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AN APPROACHING BACKDOOR FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD
TO INCREASED THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...A POCKET OF DRY AIR CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND GA WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A DRY AND CAPPED ATMOSPHERE FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 90S.

TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR SHOULD WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY
CONDITIONS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY
IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC
MONDAY...TRACKING JUST TO OUR NORTH. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE FOR OUR FA...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PROGGED TO
INCREASE TO 1.8 TO 2 INCHES...AND K INDICES IN THE MID 30S. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITIES. SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR FA. ANOTHER UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL
TRACK EAST ACROSS OUR FA TUESDAY...WITH CONTINUED INDICATIONS OF A
SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO SUPPORT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST GFS/ECMWF INDICATE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER MISS
VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...REMAINING
CENTERED TO OUR WEST...WHILE UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW REMAINS TO
OUR NE...PROVIDING A NW FLOW ALOFT FOR OUR FA...WITH A SERIES OF
EMBEDDED UPPER DISTURBANCES RIDING BY. SOME DRIER AIR WILL ENTER OUR
FA WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH SOME UPPER HEIGHT RISES BEHIND THE
DEPARTING TROUGH/SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO REDUCE AREAL DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WED/THU. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT BOTH
GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST BACK DOOR FRONT TO MOVE DOWN THE EAST
COAST...REACHING OUR FA SOME TIME IN THE GENERAL FRI NT THRU SUN
TIME FRAME. THIS WOULD INCREASE POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...AND LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS NORTH OF IT. CANT BE THAT
SPECIFIC WITH DETAILS THIS FAR OUT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN TREND IN THE
ONGOING FORECAST OF POPS TRENDING HIGHER AND TEMPS TRENDING LOWER
DURING THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE MAY BE
FOG TOWARD SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING BUT LEANED TOWARD THE MORE
OPTIMISTIC GUIDANCE AND MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS BECAUSE OF
MIXING. THE PRESSURE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE AND MAINTAIN A GENERAL DRY WESTERLY FLOW. THE DRYNESS AND
MID-LEVEL CAPPING SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORMS DESPITE
STRONG HEATING. THE CHANCE IS MUCH TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BRING RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





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