Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 262221
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
521 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. A PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY WILL EXTEND ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN THE CSRA ASSOCIATED WITH
850 MB JETMAX. LAKE WATERS RELATIVELY COOL...SO STRONGEST WINDS
NEAR-SHORE... GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
FOR STRONGEST WINDS IN THE CSRA...CLARKS HILL/THURMOND LAKE. LAKE
WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 10 PM.

PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT AS UPPER
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL BE OFF THE COAST. STILL A COUPLE OF
SHORT WAVES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY
WITH ITS DEEP SURFACE AND UPPER LOW CENTER MOVING NORTHWARD FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TO COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PERIODS
OF CLOUDS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH. MOISTURE OVERALL APPEARS QUITE LIMITED...SO DRY
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY DUE TO COLD ADVECTION.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
HEIGHTS RISING FOR WEDNESDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VERY DRY AIR MASS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS. WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND
30 FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO AGREEMENT FOR SYSTEM THURSDAY EVENING
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. GFS AND ECMWF TRACK LOW PRESSURE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT.
BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE THURSDAY
NIGHT HOURS AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

COLDER HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE
ECMWF AND GFS BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AT THIS POINT
SEEMS TO BE BY MID DAY SUNDAY AND MOVING OUT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. CURRENTLY THE PRECIP
FOR THE SUNDAY EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST WILL
BRING SOME CLOUDINESS BUT OBSERVATION TRENDS SUPPORT JUST VFR
CEILINGS AT TIMES MAINLY EARLY TONIGHT. DIMINISHING CLOUDINESS
WILL OCCUR LATE AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER AWAY AND THE
PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE WEST BECOMES MORE DOMINATE. GUSTY WINDS
EARLY SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND MIXING
DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$





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