Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FXUS61 KCTP 161139
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
739 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY.
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EASTER
WEEKEND...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINDS THUS FAR HOLDING TEMPS A TINY BIT MILDER THAN NEAR-RECORD
COLD. BUT THE TEMPS ARE GETTING CLOSE TO RECORDS IN MANY AREAS.
ONLY CLOUDS LEFT AT ALL ARE OVER SOMERSET AND TIOGA COUNTIES.
THESE SHOULD DIE OFF VERY QUICKLY AND THE DAY SHOULD BE SUNNY
UNDER 1035MB SFC HIGH. ONLY SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES A LITTLE TO THE EAST. WIND
WILL STAY UP IN THE EAST BUT THE ADVANCE OF THE RIDGE WILL KNOCK
THEM DOWN THROUGH THE DAY IN THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZE WATCH FOR THE LOWER SUSQ FOR TONIGHT. THE
WINDS SHOULD BE MUCH LIGHTER - BUT NOT COMPLETELY CALM - TONIGHT.
SO DESPITE WAA ALOFT TONIGHT...THE DECOUPLED ATMOS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPS BELOW FREEZING AGAIN. THE DAY SHIFT CAN MAKE ANY DESIRED
CHANGES AFTER THE CURRENT WARNING EXPIRES. CERTAINLY FROST IS A
GIVEN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...NIL WX FOR THE PERIOD WITH A GOOD WARM
UP THURS AS THE LOW LEVELS MIX AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WILL RESULT.

THE EASTERLY FLOW COULD START TO BRING IN SOME MARITIME MSTR LATE
THURSDAY BUT THAT IS A LITTLE TOO-MESOSCALE TO PIN DOWN AT THIS
RANGE. MORE LIKELY THOUGH THAT THOSE LOWER CLOUDS WILL WAIT UNTIL
AFTER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS OVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STG RIDGING WILL EXTEND SWWD ALONG/EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS FROM
STG HP CELL CENTERED OVER MAINE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE
SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS
AGAIN WED NGT INTO AM THURS...AND THEREFORE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH
FOR THE SERN ZONES WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS UNDERWAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN TO +3-4SD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THIS SUGGESTS A POSSIBLE EASTERLY MARITIME LLVL FLOW WITH
LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME LGT RAIN/DZ POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE
SERN ZONES.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE
GREAT LAKES REGION FRI-SAT WITH THE BEST CHC FOR RAIN OVER THE NW
1/3 OF THE CWA. THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS IDEA BUT TIMING
DIFFS MAY BE AN ISSUE. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BRIEFLY RELAXES
LATE IN THE WEEKEND BEFORE REAMPLIFYING UPSTREAM...WITH STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS /CUT-OFF LOW PROGGED ALONG THE WEST COAST...SLIGHTLY
ABOVE- AVG 500MB RIDGING EXPANDING INTO THE N-CENTRAL PLAINS AND
TROUGHING LINGERING OVER THE NERN CONUS. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE PCPN PATTERN DUE THE COMPLEXITY OF THE LW FLOW...WITH
SEVERAL LOW-MEDIUM CHC OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN IN THE OUTER
PERIODS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS -10 TO -15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A MILDER SW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW READINGS
TO MODERATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT LKLY STILL AVG
BELOW LATE APRIL CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WINDS WILL DECREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD
TODAY.

SKIES CLR NOW. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THU AND MOST OF FRI.

ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER POSSIBLE BY SAT.

OUTLOOK...
.THU-FRI...GENERALLY VFR.
.SAT...REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN /AND POSSIBLY SOME WET SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN/.
.SUN...MAINLY VFR UNDER A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
LOOKS LIKE BRADFORD HAS A NEW RECORD MIN FOR THE 16TH ALREADY -
AND ALSO CAME CLOSE FOR THE 15TH AS WELL - JUST A DEGREE OFF TYING
THE RECORD FOR TAX DAY. BUT THE SHORT PERIOD OF RECORD AT BFD
AIRPORT /SINCE 1957/ MAKES IT A LITTLE EASIER TO CRACK MANY OF THE
RECORDS THERE. KJST AND KAOO HAVE ALSO ATTAINED/TIED THEIR
RESPECTIVE RECORD MINS FOR TODAY. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL AFTER
12Z TO SEE WHAT THE FINAL NUMS ARE.

TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING - AND AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING - ARE/WILL
BE CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS. BELOW ARE THE CURRENT RECORDS FROM
AROUND THE AREA.

AOO... TODAY 24/1950/... THURSDAY 23/1980/
BFD... TODAY 18/1980/... THURSDAY 16/1963/
JST... TODAY 20/1943/... THURSDAY 21/1966/
IPT... TODAY 20/1943/... THURSDAY 25/1904/
MDT... TODAY 25/1943/... THURSDAY 29/1980 AND 1904/

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
PAZ057-059-063>066.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ057-059-
063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN
CLIMATE...COLBERT/STEINBUGL/DANGELO



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