Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FXUS61 KCTP 290136
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
936 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT AND POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF SNOW AND LIGHT ACCUMULATION
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SOME MORE LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
ELSEWHERE. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...LEADING TO A SLOW MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
STEEP BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES ARE RELAXING THIS EVENING WITH
LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. ONLY SCATTERED FLURRIES LEFT OVER FROM
THE SNOW SHOWERS THAT WERE PREVALENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA
THIS AFTERNOON.

BRISK NW WINDS PERSIST EARLY THIS EVENING...MAKING ALREADY COLD
AIR FEEL MUCH COLDER...MORE IN LINE WITH JANUARY THAN THE LAST
DAYS OF MARCH.

SKIES CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING IN MOST AREAS...BUT THERE
COULD BE A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
EXTENDING TOWARDS THE POCONO PLATEAU. CLEARING SKIES LATER ON
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUNGE INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS OVER THE NORTH
TO AROUND 20 OVER THE SOUTH. IF WINDS DROP OFF TO NEAR
CALM...SOME READINGS NEAR ZERO COULD HAPPEN OVER THE FAR NORTH.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORE CLOUDS TO
SPREAD INTO THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS TONIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORT
WAVE /OVER LOWER MICH ATTM/ DRIFTS TO THE EAST. THIS WOULD LEAD TO
AN UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEG F ACROSS THE WRN
MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE BRIGHT AND SUNNY WITH JUST SOME INCREASING MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. THIS SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
REBOUND AFTER THE VERY COLD START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER HIGHS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...ALTHOUGH NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN
TODAY...WILL STILL BE SEVERAL DEG BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAKDOWN THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOLER AIR BRING THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS
OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

THE FIRST SYSTEM IS A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A BOUT OF
THE ALL TOO FAMILIAR CHILLY POST FRONTAL STRATOCU AND MOUNTAIN
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

THIS IS FOLLOWED IN QUICK SUCCESSION BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FOR
TUESDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF BOTH HAVE AN INTERESTING
LOOKING SURFACE LOW THAT THEY TAKE SE THROUGH CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN
PA ALONG A TIGHT THERMAL RIBBON. THE 850 0C LINE WILL BISECT THE
STATE BUT EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHT TIME HOURS WITH A
RAIN SNOW MIX OR ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY AS A RESULT OF THE APRIL
SUN ANGLE.

BY MIDWEEK...WE SHOULD SEE UPPER HEIGHTS REBOUND AS THE MAIN
TROUGH AT LEAST TEMPORARILY SHIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
HOWEVER THE PARENT UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER HUDSON`S BAY AND EVEN
DROPS SOUTH IN TIME...REINFORCING THE TROUGHING OVER THE NRN US BY
WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS THE NIGHT
CONTINUES. THE ONLY CONCERN IS THE PATCHY VALLEY FOG/MIST THAT
SHOULD FORM DUE TO THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

WINDS CURRENTLY ARE REMAINING STRONG WITH GUSTS AT AOO AND
MDT...THOUGH THESE WILL GRADUALLY DROP OFF AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES.
 THE MOST AT RISK FROM THIS WILL BE BFD...WHICH COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATO CU BETWEEN 09 TO 13Z. THOUGH THIS IS STILL
RELATIVELY A LOW PROBABILITY SO HAVE LEFT CONDITIONS MVFR THROUGH
THIS TIMEFRAME. AFTER A MORE TRANQUIL AND NOTICEABLY MILDER DAY
SUNDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER AND
PRECEDING...FEW- HOUR SHOT OF MDTLY STG WAA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A FEW PERIODS OF SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMS OF A COATING TO 1 INCH WILL BE FOCUSED
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS...AND A FEW SPOTS ACROSS
NWRN PENN COULD SEE UP TO 2 INCHES BY 12Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.

TUE...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS THE NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA.

THUR AFTERNOON NIGHT...A GRADUALLY DECREASE TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU



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