Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 220241
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1041 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THEN MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS
WEEK. THE WIND FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING LOTS OF CLOUDS AND
GENERALLY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MOST OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED
STATES...AND LEAD TO DRY AND FAIR WEATHER WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE THIS
EVENING WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND REACH THE
DELMARVA COAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

SLOWLY DWINDLING CLUSTERS OF SLOW MOVING...LIGHT TO MODERATE
INTENSITY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIRAL AROUND THE UPPER LOW OR DRIFT SLOWLY SWWD.

3 HOURLY PRECIP ESTIMATES AND GAGE REPORTS INDICATE LIGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WHERE SOME QUASI-STNRY CLUSTERS OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND TSRA HAVE OCCURRED...HIGHLY LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES WERE NOTED.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 03Z AND 12Z WILL BE UNDER
0.10 ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PENN AND 0.10-0.25 OF AN INCH
FURTHER SOUTH. LOCALIZED 0.50 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR...AND
TO THE EAST OF A KTHV...KMDT AND KMUI LINE.

SOME DZ IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE WRN MTNS AS CLOUDS LOWER
OVERNIGHT UNDER PERSISTENT/MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPS MIGHT GET
INTO THE U30S ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVS OF THE WEST AS 8H TEMPS
DIP INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. WILL CONTINUE TO NOT MENTION ANY
SN IN THE WX GRIDS IN THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AS MOST OF THE CLOUD
IS WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WELL CUT OFF ON WEDNESDAY BUT WOBBLING OUT
TO SEA OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM
WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN LOTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE
STATE. SHOWERS/RAIN ARE LIKELY IN THE MORNING IN THE EAST AND
ALMOST FOR SURE IN THE FAR SE. BUT THE AFTERNOON MAY BRING SOME
DRYING/MIXING. HOWEVER...THE COLD POOL ALOFT IS NOT THAT FAR AWAY
AND SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. MAXES WILL BE ONLY 5-10F ABOVE MORNING MINS THANKS TO THE
CLOUDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT FROM THE NORTH AND GUSTS COULD
REACH INTO THE 20S IN THE SOUTH.

WED NIGHT MAY SEE A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS SHORTWAVES CIRCLE
THE UPPER LOW. BUT BREEZY CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM BOTTOMING
OUT OFF THE NJ COAST ON THU AND THEN LIFTING SLOWLY NEWD ALONG
THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH SAT.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW NICE AGREEMENT AS WELL AS SOLID
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...SO MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED TO OVERALL
EXTENDED FORECAST.

THIS STACKED LOW WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AND THE CHANCE OF
CHILLY WRAP-AROUND RAINS IN THE FCST FOR THU AND POSSIBLY INTO
FRI...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT AND IF A SHORTWAVE
WRAPPING AROUND IT EDGES BACK INTO NE PA ON FRI. THE IMPETUS TO
KICK STORM NE LIES UPSTREAM WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH
THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SAT NGT.

PROGRESSIVE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH SUN AND MON...BRINGING LIGHTER
WINDS AND GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER TO START THE WEEK. MODELS ALSO
BRING A PUSH OF WARMER TEMPS INTO THE REGION AS FLOW TURNS SW
AHEAD OF A WAVE SLIDING THROUGH NATIONS MIDSECTION. LOW LIFTS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES /TRACKING TO OUR NW/ MON-TUE WITH MILDER
TEMPS IN CENTRAL PA. PUSH BEHIND THE WAVE WILL NUDGE A COOL FRONT
WITH LIMITED SUPPORT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH GENERAL COOLING TREND
FOR MID-LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS HAS SETTLED INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
FROM AROUND JST EAST TO NEAR LANCASTER. THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING
SLOWLY EAST AND THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN WITH
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE IN ALL TERMINALS DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR TO
DEVELOP WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN TERMINALS.

THE CIRCULATION AROUND A STORM DEEPENING OFF THE NJ SHORE WILL
SPIN SHOWERS BACK INTO THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. SOME DRYING IS POSSIBLE WED AFTN...BUT WITH THE UPPER
LOW STILL OVERHEAD...INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE WHERE
THE CLOUDS CAN BREAK A BIT.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE



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