Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FXUS61 KCTP 151958
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
358 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH AND
OFF OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
KEYSTONE STATE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE REST OF
THIS WEEK WILL BE MAINLY ON THE DRY SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA
TONIGHT. ACTIVITY ALREADY JUST WEST OF PA...ADJUSTED TIMING
SOME.

TEMPS LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TOOK SHOWERS OUT OF TUE AM...FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
VERY FAST.

HEIGHTS STAY FAIRLY HIGH...SO NOT SEEING MUCH LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY. SOME CLOUDS EARLY ON.

WIND WILL LIKELY KICK UP SOME.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FROST AND FREEZING
TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH TUE NIGHT. MAV NUMBERS HAVE BFD
BELOW 32. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...ALONG WITH
HIGH HEIGHTS AND LOW DEWPOINTS/PW VALUES SUPPORT SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FROST ETC. STILL A WAYS OUT...LATER SHIFTS CAN
MONITOR AND ISSUE FLAGS AS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO VALLEY WITH DRIER COOLER
NORTHWEST FLOW IN LOWER LEVELS. THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS LINGERING
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION EARLY...BUT
CENTRAL PA SHOULD SEE GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE OVERALL. HIGHS WILL BE
ABOUT 5F BELOW NORMAL.

TROUGH ALOFT SHARPENS OVER QUEBEC WED NIGHT/THU...PUSHING A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARD PA ON THU. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS IT EDGES SOUTHWARD...BUT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE
OVERHEAD FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
COVER ALONG WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A SPRINKLE. NORTHERN PA WILL
GET A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO A 1030MB
HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND BY FRI...BRINGING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER
AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S ARE
LIKELY THU NIGHT IF SKIES CLEAR OUT AS ANTICIPATED. HIGHS ON FRI
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S AS NW FLOW CONTINUES.

RETURN FLOW BEGINS WEAKLY FRI NIGHT...TAKING A LITTLE OF THE BITE
OUT OF OVERNIGHT LOWS /THOUGH STILL CHILLY WITH READINGS MAINLY IN
THE 40S/. BUT THIS WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS SAT INTO SUN WILL BE 5-8F WARMER THAN FRI...WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 80F IN THE SE. LOWS WILL BE NOTICABLY MILDER AS WELL
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW.

HEADING INTO SUNDAY...DEEPENING LOW CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTH
AS A TROUGH AXIS ROTATES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MODELS STILL SHOWING LARGE
DIFFERENCES ON EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH GFS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND ECMWF ACTUALLY BRINGING A SECOND WAVE AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH AND DEVELOPING A STUBBORN CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE REGION. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND HOLD ON TO
MENTION OF SHOWERS INTO MON ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR
AND SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT OVER NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT BFD. LOWER CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON
TUESDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
IT WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES ON TUE.

SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG TUESDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...MARTIN



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