Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA
FXUS61 KCTP 230343
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1143 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016
Blustery northwest winds will usher in much colder air. The first
touch of lake effect snow flakes are possible over some of the
higher ridge tops...but no significant accumulations are expected.
A weak disturbance will pass through Sunday night bringing a
reinforcing shot of cold air that will last through mid week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Some very light showers continue to stream SE off Lake Erie as
cold air continues to pour over the lakes into the local area.
A gusty NW wind will continue overnight in the strong gradient
behind the departing low moving through Maine.
Rain or snow showers/flurries will continue overnight, mainly favoring
my NW zones as the deep and well aligned NW flow is forecast to
last at least into mid day Sunday. We have already had snow
reported at BFD and JST, but with relatively warm skin temps, any
accums that occur over the higher elevation under the more
persistent lake bands, will be minor.
Mins will not be far from current temps in the northwestern half
of the area since the wind will keep it mixed. Mins SE will be
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Cross-lake flow lifts to the north and weakens. Just some
sprinkles, flurries will affect the NW for the morning, but it
should be dry for the rest of the day. The rest of the area will
be better than today with a mostly sunny sky and temps 10-15F
higher than Sat. But, the wind will still be gusty.
A streak of showers (thunder?) should cross the north Sunday
Night. It will be moving quickly and rain will not get any farther
south than I-80. Mins will be in the 40s, and the wind will not
die off much.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As a sprawling surface and mid-level system over eastern Quebec
slowly unwinds early this week, broad cyclonic/northwest flow
will continue to reinforce colder air over Pennsylvania. Weak
shortwave sliding through early Monday will keep mention of light
showers in the NW mountains, and keep breezy conditions in place
through the day.
High pressure gradually works in from the Great Lakes Tue into
Wed keeping below normal temperatures in place. CAA comes to an
end on Wed as upper ridge finally moves through. But that will be
quickly followed by a compact low developing over the Midwest that
will be knocking on our door by Thu. Expect showers to work in
from the west later Wed night, with rain likely for much of the
area on Thu.
Model guidance quickly diverges after that, so confidence in next
weekends forecast is rather low. But looks like potentially another
quick shot of cooler air late week, with the GFS and EC battling
it out for synoptic features by Sunday.
.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
03Z TAFS sent.
Minor adjustments made.
The main issue overnight into Sunday will be gusty winds.
The other issue will be the band of lake effect rain showers that
will be from near UNV southward across JST and AOO this evening.
Sun Night...MVFR N with RA. VFR elsewhere.
Mon...Mainly VFR. MVFR with rain showers possible early.
Tue-Wed...No Sig Wx.
NEAR TERM...Dangelo/La Corte