Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 050551
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
151 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TODAY. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
EARLY MORNING 11-3.9U LOOP SHOWING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG FORMING
UNDER THE EAST/WEST SFC RIDGE THAT WAS STRETCHED ACROSS NRN PENN.
T/TD SPREADS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN WERE 0-2 DEG F.

LESS FOG WAS NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE...WHERE
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS WERE PRESENT...TOPPED BY CIRRUS STREAMING NE
FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. T/TD SPREADS ACROSS SRN PENN AT 05Z
WERE STILL SEVERAL DEG F IN MANY LOCATIONS.

EXPECT THE FOG TO GET LOCALLY DENSE THROUGHOUT THE DEEPER RIVER
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS.

WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE NEED OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY LATE
TONIGHT.

LOWS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL VARY FROM THE CHILLY UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO ARND 60F ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MORNING FOG SHOULD BURN OFF TO MSUNNY SKIES BY 13-14Z...BENEATH
SFC HIGH. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS NR 15C IMPLY POTENTIAL MAX TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S...BUT WILL TEMPER THE WARM UP JUST A BIT BASED ON WET
GROUND AND POTENTIAL OF SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FOREST FIRES DIMMING
THE SUNSHINE A BIT. EARLY EVENING VIS LOOP SHOWED EXPANSIVE SMOKE
PLUME OVR THE GRT LKS AND PUSHING TOWARD PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE LONGER TERM GRIDS.

INTERESTING FOURTH OF JULY HERE...ONE CAN SEE A NICE CIRCULATION
CENTER OFF THE COAST NOW...SEE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP. SOME SPOTS
HAD OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING...SEE PNS.

ANYWAY...STILL LOOKING A NICE DAY ON SUNDAY. SOME HIGH CLDS WILL
WORK IN LATE...WITH SOME CHANCE OF A SHOWER BY MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE SW. MOST LIKELY THERE WILL BE SOME SMOKE ALOFT AGAIN.
THIS WAS THE CASE AT TIMES THIS PAST WEEK. CAN SEE SOME SMOKE ON
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP TODAY.

DID UP TEMPS SOME MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTH. ALSO DID UP POPS
UP SOME LATE MONDAY INTO TUE. MODELS STILL WANT TO BRING MOISTURE
BACK TO THE NORTH LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHEST POPS LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUE.

COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES MAY JUST FALL APART LATER IN THE
WEEK. CLUE TO FCST MAY BE THE 00Z 7/4 EC RUN. THIS RUN SHOWS
FLATTER FLOW AT 500 MB LATER IN THE WEEK...COMPARED TO THE 7/3 12Z
EC RUN AND OTHER MODELS. MAIN CHANGE FOR NOW WAS TO EDGE POPS
DOWN LATER IN THE WEEK...EDGE MAX TEMPS UP SOME...AND LOWER MIN
TEMPS SOME. DID NOT WANT TO GO TOO HIGH WITH POPS...MODELS MAY
HAVE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES. AT THE SAME TIME...HAVE TO LOOK
AT HOW MUCH RAIN WE GOT EARLIER TODAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM.

HOPE ALL HAVE A GOOD FOURTH OF JULY. WAS ON THE COOL SIDE LAST
4TH OF JULY...BUT DRY AND SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LAST REMNANTS OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ENDING AS ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS FROM KAOO TO KUNV. LOW CLOUDS AROUND LOW
PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN EARLIER TODAY CONTINUES TO
MOVE ONLY SLOWLY EAST....WITH MVFR CIGS ACROSS EASTER TAF SITES.
WITH SETTING OF SUN/COOLING TEMPS AND VERY MOIST LEVELS NEAR
SFC...EXPECT MVFR CONDS TO EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CIGS AND FORMATION OF FOG. MVFR
AND IFR THESE CONDS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH AT LEAST
AREAS IF NOT WIDESPREAD FOG WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED CONDS.

SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE VFR FLYING ONCE THE MORNING FOG/HZ BURNS
OFF.

OUTLOOK...

MON-THU...VFR/MVFR WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/PM TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER


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