Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 200335
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1035 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT... USHERING IN
ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MILDER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY. A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC CLIPPER LOW
TRACKING THRU THE GRT LKS. SWATH OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG ASSOC LL
JET IS PRODUCING A BIT OF SPOTTY LGT SNOW ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU AS OF 03Z AND NEAR TERM MDL DATA STILL SUPPORTS A LIGHT
ACCUM OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...WHERE OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL PARTIALLY MAKE UP FOR MEAGER
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM. DOWNSLOPING/DRYING FLOW EAST OF THE
MTNS SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP TO SCT FLURRIES AT BEST THERE.

WEAKENING LL JET SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY ARND
06Z...CAUSING LGT SNOW TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE N MTNS. SFC COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE W MTNS LATE TONIGHT...CAUSING
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UTEENS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHILE NEARLY STEADY
TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE UNDER MCLDY SKIES/SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY PROMISES TO BE ANOTHER BLUSTERY DAY AS A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD/DRY AIR POURS BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING
COLD FRONT. LOW LVL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION AND FORCED
TO ASCEND THE MTNS SHOULD PRODUCE A FAIR AMT OF STRATOCU ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENIES...WHILE DOWNSLOPING FLOW YIELDS MSUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. LOW PWAT AIR MASS AND LACK OF A TRAJECTORY
OFF THE LAKES SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY DAY. HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT
LAKE EFFECT EVENT MAY EVENTUALLY UNFOLD FOR NW PA TOWARD EVENING.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THU AFTN THRU
FRI AFTN...BUT LATEST MDL DATA NOW SUGGESTS THE THREAT WILL MAINLY BE
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...WHEN BLYR FLOW VEERS TO THE WNW...CAUSING INTENSE
SINGLE BAND OVR WESTERN NY STATE TO TRANSITION TO WEAKER MULTIPLE
BANDS AFFECTING NW PA. BOTH 18Z GEFS/NAM SHOWS THE BEST LIFT ASSOC
WITH DYING SINGLE BAND MOVING THRU WARREN/MCKEAN COUNTIES ARND 03Z
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MESOSCALE MDL QPF IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...VERY
HIGH SNOW RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 TO 1 COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED
TOTALS ARND 6 INCHES FRI NIGHT...ESP OVR NW WARREN CO. MDL TIME
SECTIONS SHOW MAXIMUM OMEGA OCCURRING WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE ARND -15C.

ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY FROM JUST THE L20S
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO PERHAPS THE U30S ACROSS YORK/LANCASTER
COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAKE SNOW WATCH THRU 20Z FRIDAY...AS THE MEAN WIND IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS FORECAST TO SHIFT MORE TO THE NW LATE THU...UNLIKE THE
EVENT YESTERDAY AND EARLY TODAY THAT GAVE THE BUF AREA A HUGE AMT
OF SNOW. HIGHEST POTENTIAL WILL BE THE NORTHERN PART OF WARREN AND
MCKEAN COUNTIES.

MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN
MOISTURE RETURN. REALLY TOO WARM FOR SNOW...GIVEN TEMPS ALOFT
BUT SFC TEMPS FCST NEAR FREEZING OR JUST BELOW 32. LATER SHIFTS
CAN ADJUST.

MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO TUE.

DID UP TEMPS SOME...GIVEN RATHER STRONG WARM ADVECTION.

ALSO DID UP POPS SOME FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...GIVEN
TYPE OF AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD.

COOLER AGAIN BY MID WEEK...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WHAT WE HAVE
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BFD REMAINS WITH A MVFR CEILING WHILE ALL OTHER TERMINALS ARE VFR.

LIGHT NOW IS ALREADY BREAKING OUT OVER NWRN PA AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND
LOWER WITH RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN ABOUT 2-4PM IN
THE BRADFORD AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR MAY EVEN REACH AN
ALTOONA-STATE COLLEGE-WILLIAMSPORT LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
VISIBILITIES IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE DUE TO LIGHT SNOW MOVE INTO
CENTRAL AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

THU...BLUSTERY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS
ACROSS THE NW SNOW BELT AREAS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

FRI...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND POSS RESTRICTIONS MAINLY
WEST/NORTH.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004-005.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE


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