Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FXUS61 KCTP 211908
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
308 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH A RATHER CHILLY START TO THE WEEKEND. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH AN INCREASING RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

FLOW AROUND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTN
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS PA. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE STATE FOR THE
TIME BEING. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL LIKELY HELP FIRE SOME MORE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS AND LAURELS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THOUGH THAT THEY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED IN COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY...
THE MAIN LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO ROTATE
THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND NRN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WHICH
SHOULD DRIVE A RE-ENFORCING SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL PA.
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ISOLD/WDLY SCT SHOWERS WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT WITH VERY LIMITED MSTR KEPT POPS AOB 20
PCT. MAX TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE SOME BUT STILL AVG BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT ACTIVE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR AREAS OF FROST ALONG THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT BY SATURDAY MORNING. COULD EVEN SEE SOME FROST IN
THE OUTLYING AREAS AROUND STATE COLLEGE. WITH A FAVORABLE PATTERN
AND SUPPORT FROM MODEL CONSENSUS...COLLABORATED WITH BUF/BGM ON A
FREEZE WATCH FOR THE NRN MTNS WITH FCST MINS IN THE 28-32F RANGE.
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT FROST RISK IN THE HWO AND LATER
SHIFTS CAN ADD FROST HEADLINES AS NEEDED.


ALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL A WARMING TREND INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY MEMORIAL DAY AS ANOMALOUS 500MB RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. GFS/ECMWF DISAGREE ON PLACEMENT OF WARM FRONTAL ZONE LIFTING
NWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS/LWR MS VLY. THIS WILL LKLY IMPACT PCPN
RISK EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE AREA
LATER IN THE WEEK. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN BOUNDARY PLACEMENT AT
THIS RANGE...WILL MAINTAIN DAILY RISK OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN INCREASINGLY HUMID/MUGGY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FLOW AROUND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTN
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS PA. MOST
OF THE CIGS ARE...AND WILL REMAIN VFR...BUT UPSLOPE FLOW IS
CAUSING SOME LOWERED CIGS AT KAOO AND KUNV AND IFR AT KJST.
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE STATE FOR THE TIME BEING.
HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL LIKELY
HELP FIRE SOME MORE SHOWERS ACROSS THE WRN AND NRN MTNS LATE THIS
AFTN AND EVENING....THOUGH THEY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED IN
COVERAGE.

IMPROVING FLYING CONDS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING...AS WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NW...DRAWING DRIER AIR AND CLEARING SKIES INTO THE
REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR...MVFR POSS IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER
NEAR TERM...GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/GARTNER



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