Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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383
FXUS61 KCTP 262356
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
756 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING. A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL THEN RIDGE
SOUTHEAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND
COOLER CONDITIONS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW A WEAKENING TREND OF LINGERING
CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
THEREFORE...HAVE CANCELLED THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE WATCH.

FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE LATE THIS EVENING WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS AND TSRA NEAR THE MASON/DIXON LINE ENDING BY
ARND 01Z. STRATUS ACROSS THE N MTNS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH LATE
EVENING...THEN BREAK UP AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH IN
THE PRE DAWN HOURS.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE FROSTY LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES...TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY WILL BE ONE OF THE DRIER DAYS OF THE WEEK THANKS TO
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GLAKS.
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE
LIKELY RESULTING IN PT-MCLDY SKIES OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. OTHERWISE
EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST DESPITE WITH MAX TEMPS
BTWN 60-65F FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THU WILL BRING SOME
RAIN...AND MORE NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.
SOME OF THE GUIDANCE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE LEADING EDGE
TODAY.

A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH TRYS TO FORM.

STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF SAT WILL BE DRY.

OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE
TOWARD MAY. THE PERIOD FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY TUE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SOME RAIN.

OVERALL NOT LOOKING REAL COLD...AS MAYBE THE GUIDANCE HINTED
AT THE OTHER DAY...BUT A WETTER PATTERN THAN WE HAVE SEEN
LATELY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT AS
IT SAGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY STORMS
THROUGH 00Z.

PRECIP WILL END FROM NW TO SE...EXITING THE LOWER SUSQ SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z WED. LOWERING CIGS WILL SAG IN FROM THE
NORTH...IMPACTING MAINLY WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN AND LIKELY
EXPANDING INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

THU-FRI...MVFR WITH SHRA LIKELY.

SAT...FAIR.

SUN...MVFR WITH SHRA LIKELY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR



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