Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 190214
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1014 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RECENT DRY WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THIS
WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM HANGS CLOSE TO THE LOCAL
AREA. DRIER AIR IS LIKELY TO REBUILD OVER THE COMMONWEALTH THIS
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF FROM NEW ENGLAND TO
THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

SHOWERS HAVE DWINDLED AS EXPECTED. THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER BEING OVER
THE FAR SOUTH. EVEN THERE PROBS ARE VERY LOW.

MINS WILL BE MILDER THAN RECENT MORNINGS WITH LOW TO MID 50S
EXPECTED NORTH AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH. A BIT OF MUGGINESS
WILL BE FELT IN THE AIR AS DEWPOINTS HAVE CREPT SLOWLY
UPWARD...AND SOME LCL MVFR/IFR CONDS IN VALLEY FOG ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
MOST AREAS WILL SEE A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY... IN
BETWEEN THE WEAK FORCING SHIFTING OFF THE COAST AND DEEPER UPPER
LOW DRIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL GLAKS. UNDER A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
AXIS...MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER
ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE FLATTER SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW IN A
RICHER AMBIENT MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT (PW ~1.7").

CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH GREATEST AMTS OF
SUNSHINE FOUND NORTH...AND LESS BREAKS ACROSS THE SOUTH. MAXES
SIMILAR TO...RANGING FROM MID 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID TO LATE WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A TUMULTUOUS TIMEFRAME
FOR WEATHER...GEFS/CMC...LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY ANOMALOUS PWATS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HOWEVER OPERATIONAL RUNS FROM THE
GFS/EC/CANADIAN CONTINUE THE TREND OF SLOWING THE SYSTEMS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. AS THE UPPER LEVEL CURRENTLY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST SLOWLY MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST...THE RIDGE SHOULD TILT
NEGATIVELY AND SLOWLY FLATTEN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE TROUGH
CURRENTLY STRADDLING THE CANADIAN...MINNESOTA BORDER...BEFORE
ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES  ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW...MOVING BELOW
HIGH BUILDING INTO NORTHERN CANADA AND SPECIFICALLY HUDSON
BAY...HAS WEAK FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW IT TO SLOWLY MEANDER
EASTWARD. CONSIDERING IT IS CUTOFF FROM MAJOR MOISTURE
SOURCES...PRECIPITATION WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PROGRESSION SHOULD
DELAY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ANY ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION TO LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GFS IS THE FASTEST WITH THE
CANADIAN/EC FURTHER WEAKENING AND SLOWING EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE SYSTEM. BROAD MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR LIKELY POPS BY
THURSDAY ...AS THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY DRIFTING EASTWARD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
PUSHES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA. USED A BLEND OF MODELS
LEADING TOWARD THE EC AND MOS GUIDANCE.

BY FRIDAY THE CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST DROPS OFF
AS ENSEMBLES SHOW GREAT VARIABILITY IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT.THOUGH
THE WEEKEND IS TRENDING TOWARDS A DRIER SOLUTION. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW THAT MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK COULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY JUST
OFF THE COAST. DEPENDING ON ITS POSITION COULD ALLOW FOR WEAK
SHORT WAVES THROUGH THE REGION THAT COULD ALLOW FOR CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO FOG AND
LOWERING VSBYS LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR VSBYS
AND CIGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT MOST CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AIRFIELDS. HOWEVER...ATTM HAVE NOT INCLUDED FOG IN THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA TAFS OF KMDT AND KLNS...AS CONFIDENCE OF FORMATION IS
LOWER. IF FOG DOES DEVELOP...LIKELY TO BE IN THE MVFR RANGE AT
THESE LOCATIONS.

CURRENT TIMING OF FOG IS FOR DEVELOPMENT AROUND 07Z IN MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH THE DENSEST FOG BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.

ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE KJST AIRFIELD TO INCLUDE VCSH FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY OVERNIGHT.

FOR TOMORROW...AFTER MORNING FOG...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS. THERE IS A THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA...MOST LIKELY IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND LEAST LIKELY IN THE NORTHEAST.

A VERY SLOW APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR
DAILY SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL AFTERNOON TSRA FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
WEEK. CURRENTLY...LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK LIKE THE
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION...WITH SURFACE FRONT CROSSING
THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...MORNING FOG...THEN MAINLY VFR...WITH SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
WED-FRI...MORNING FOG CHANCES EACH DAY. OVERALL VFR...BUT
INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. STILL CHANCE OF SHRA...BUT DECREASING CHANCES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG


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