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000
FXUS63 KGRR 200321
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1121 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

HIGH PRESSURE TO BRING WARMER AND DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. WARM TEMPERATURES ON TRACK TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH ALL
OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...OTHERWISE A QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES...AND OVERALL LITTLE CLOUD COVER.

HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING LIMITED AND MOSTLY OFF TO OUR NORTH OR
NORTHWEST. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALSO HELP TO SLOW DOWN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT KEEPING CHANCES FOR STORMS LOW
THEN AS WELL. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY STORMS THIS NEXT WEEK IN THE
LONG TERM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

OVERALL THE THINKING HASNT CHANGED MUCH WITH THE FORECAST. AGREE
WITH THE PREVIOUS FCSTR THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE
SATURDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO TILT TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE RESULT BEING SHORT WAVES RIDING NEWD FROM THE
PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO CROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. AT THE SAME TIME A WARM
FRONT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NRN CWA SATURDAY. GIVEN THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE BY THEN...INSTABILITY WILL BE MODERATELY
HIGH AND THE COMBINATION OF NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES AND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEARBY SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LOW SHEAR
VALUES SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SVR STORMS HOWEVER.

THE GENERAL SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTH. WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DECENT LLJ OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY KICK OFF NOCTURNAL MCS
DEVELOPMENT OVER MN/WI WHICH WOULD THEN MOVE ESE. MODELS SHOW A
DEEPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD INCREASE OUR PCPN CHANCES AGAIN.

MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY CHANGE WAS
TO MENTION LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS COMMENCING LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE WAVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL HAZARDS TO BOATERS AND SWIMMERS FROM ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK COULD BRING PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION...BUT AT THIS TIME NO
HYDROLOGY ISSUES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MACZKO
SHORT TERM...MACZKO
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...TJT
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO
MARINE...MACZKO