Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL

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FXUS63 KLOT 221525

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
1025 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

1023 AM CDT

Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies through early afternoon to
give way for clearing through the afternoon from west to east.
High temperatures still appear on track near seasonal norms in the
upper 50s to low 60s.



314 AM CDT

Through tonight...

Main forecast concerns/challenges are with lingering light
showers across portions of northwest Indiana this morning, and
then with cloud trends through midday.

Generally quiet, but cool, conditions in place this morning as
surface ridge has centered over the CWA. Light winds in place this
morning but with cloudier skies currently over much of the CWA.
This is due to clouds still spilling off the lake in northwest
Indiana, but more so with upstream mid/high level cloud cover
shifting overhead. This cloud cover, due to upstream mid level
energy and WAA, will continue to move southeast this morning. Did
increase cloud cover through midday with partly cloudy to partly
sunny skies likely this morning. Should remain fairly progressive
though, with sunny skies likely by early afternoon. Isolated area
of light showers still ongoing across northwest will likely
continue this morning, mainly across Porter county. However, as
surface ridge continues east, convergent axis and precip will
likewise shift east of the CWA. Precip will eventually completely
end as a more subsident environment moves over the lake.



314 AM CDT

Sunday through Friday...

Quiet conditions on Sunday will continue into early next week.
Despite low pressure quickly shifting through the region Sunday
into Sunday night, dry conditions will limit precip development. A
quick push of warm air during the day Sunday will support high
temps around 70 for most locations, with lower 70s possible south
of I80. Another minor cool push then occurs again Sunday night
into Monday as high pressure builds across the region. Next precip
chances still appear to be towards mid week as low pressure
approaches the region. Fairly consistent signal among model
guidance and so have maintained categorical pops over much of the
CWA, centered around the Wednesday period. Did keep thunder
wording in the grids, however, did back off a little. Instability
and moisture look to be rather limited but with anticipated strong
forcing, at least isolated thunder still remains a possibility. At
this time, do think this will only be possible during the day
Wednesday though, as this system quickly shifts to the east
Wednesday night.



For the 12Z TAFs...

No significant weather expected through the period.



157 AM CDT

Ridge axis will move east of the lake today allowing winds to back
to southwest. Low pressure will move across the lake late Sunday
with a brief period of moderately strong northerlies developing
behind the low, late Sunday afternoon spreading to southern
portions of the lake early Sunday evening. Winds should begin to
subside by late Sunday night and Monday as high approaches from
the west. Strong low pressure is forecast to develop the central
plains Tuesday and track east toward the mid-Mississippi Valley
region midweek. Current models suggest the low will track south of
the lake setting the stage for strong easterly winds developing
Tuesday night and continuing into Thursday. Depending on eventual
track of the system, could see a period of easterly gales midwee,
but confidence is still fairly low.






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