Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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000
FXUS63 KMKX 061945
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
145 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

A WEAK WAVE MOST NOTABLE FROM THE SURFACE TO 850 MB WILL MOVE
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING.

WILL SEE A GOOD SHOT OF 850 TO 700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE IS VERY LACKING IN THE LOWER LEVELS
TONIGHT...SO JUST WENT WITH MAINLY SCATTERED FLURRIES. COULD SEE
SOME HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES SKIM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...SO KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THERE. SNOW MAY MIX WITH
RAIN TOMORROW MORNING.

LOOKS DRY THEN FROM MID SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS
DEEPER MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXITS TO THE EAST. DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS
WEST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...SO BROUGHT POPS BACK INTO THE WEST.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER TONIGHT AND COMBINE WITH WARM
ADVECTION TO PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW
30S. KEPT HIGH TEMPS CLOSER TO CANADIAN TOMORROW...AS IT IS DOING
THE BEST TODAY...A NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN COOLER GFS/NAM AND MILDER
ECMWF.

.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN BY NOON MONDAY. THE
TROUGH AT 500 MB BECOMES A BROAD CLOSED LOW THAT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
WISCONSIN AND LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT AND OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
MONDAY. BANDS OF MODERATE 700 MB UPWARD MOTION MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE PERIOD WITH PERSISTENT WEAK UPPER
DIVERGENCE.


THE SURFACE LOW BECOMES STACKED WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW AND DROPS
SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE MICHIGAN AREA.  THE LOW AND MID LEVELS
SATURATE AND COOL. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER THAN -5 CELSIUS
AND SUPPORT SNOW...AND LAPSE RATES INCREASE WITH NEAR SATURATED
LOWER AND MID LEVELS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NEAR 7 CELSIUS/KM.

SNOWFALL GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE TOTALS OF AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES
WOULD BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT.

.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WITH A
WEAKLY CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW INTO TUESDAY WITH WEAK 700 MB
UPWARD MOTION.

THE MID LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY...BUT REMAIN MOIST IN THE 925/850 MB
LAYER.

COULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING... WITH
FLURRIES POSSIBLE WEST AREAS ESPECIALLY EAST AS THE LOW SLOWLY
PULLS AWAY.

COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AT 850 MB...DROPPING TO AROUND MINUS
18 CELSIUS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...

.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES WITH A SHEARED CYCLONIC
VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY LATER WEDNESDAY.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE 00Z ECMWF DOES BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS EASTERN IOWA...BARELY REACHING AREAS
SOUTHWEST OF MADISON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PREFER THE DRY 12Z GFS
AND 06Z DGEX...AND NOW THE 12Z ECMWF IS MORE LIKEL THE GFS.

.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ZONAL THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST CANADA IN
THE NORTHERN TROUGH WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND INTO MISSOURI.

A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH RIDGE AXIS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN BY FRIDAY.

.SATURDAY....FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW AGAIN ACROSS WISCONSIN.

A STRONG SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND INTO LATE AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE EVENING. THERE IS CURRENTLY SOME IMPROVEMENT TO THE
NORTHWEST THAT BEARS WATCHING. STILL SEEING MIXED SIGNALS IN MODELS
AS TO WHEN CONDITIONS MIGHT IMPROVE AS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WARM ADVECTION AND A COUPLE SHORTWAVES
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DISCOUNTING THE TYPICALLY OVERDONE NAM NEAR
SURFACE SATURATED RH LAYER...DOES SEEM THAT SOME VFR CIGS MAY RETURN
BY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH LOWER CLOUDS POSSIBLY RETURNING IN THE
AFTERNOON.

MAY SEE A FEW SNOWFLAKES TONIGHT...BUT STILL SEEING A GOOD AMOUNT OF
DRY AIR IN MODELS SOUNDINGS. PROBABLY WILL SEE MAINLY
FLURRIES...WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. SHOULD BE DRY
THEN MID SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
POSSIBLE WEST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE THIS
EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTS LOOK BORDERLINE AT THIS TIME
THOUGH...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY FOR NOW.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HENTZ


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