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000
FXUS63 KMKX 072130
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL STREAM EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...AS WINDS DECOUPLE WITH THE PASSING HIGH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN BECOME STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE LATER
TONIGHT...AS THE CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER BAND SHOULD SET UP NORTH TO SOUTH ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE THIS
EVENING. HRRR INDICATING THIS BAND SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
WEST NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT...POSSIBLY TRACKING INTO THE FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES NEAR THE LAKE IN THE 09Z TO 12Z SUNDAY PERIOD.
ADDED POPS IN THIS AREA FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. MOST OF THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z SUNDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH

THE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH A WEAK BUT DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS. THE SFC LOW WILL
BECOME CLOSED OFF AT 1015 MB NEAR OR EAST OF KMKE BY 06Z MON AND
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND INTO CANADA ON MON. A LARGE SCALE AND FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE LOW TO
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WITH WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
ON SUN WITH SNOW INTENSIFYING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WHEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SW.

A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS ON QPF YIELDS QPF TOTALS OF 0.15-0.22.
THE DEPTH OF THE DENDRITE ZONE VARIES ON MODELS BUT HAS TRENDED
LESS DEEP FROM YESTERDAY. THEREFORE WILL GO WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS
OF SNOW RATIOS CLOSE TO 20 TO 1 VERSUS SOMETHING HIGHER. THIS
YIELDS 3 TO 4 INCHES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 2-3 NEAR THE IL BORDER.
THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT NWD TREND WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
QPF...SO LESSER AMOUNTS NEAR THE IL BORDER IS REASONABLE. LAKE
ENHANCED SNOWS THEN NEED TO BE ADDED IN FOR OZAUKEE AND SHEBOYGAN
COUNTIES GIVEN THE 1000-850 MB SELY FLOW AND LAKE TO 850 MB TEMP
DIFFERENCES OF 14-17C. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHARTS SUGGESTS ADDING
AT LEAST 3 INCHES SO FORECASTING 4-7 INCHES OF SNOW IN SHEBOYGAN
AND NRN OZAUKEE COUNTIES. IF GREATER LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS EXPECTED
A WINTER STORM WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. A WINTER WX ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CWA FOR THIS SNOW EVENT.

BRISK WESTERLY WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION TO PREVAIL ON MON WITH
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS RETURNING AFTER HIGHS IN THE 20S ON SUN. WIND
GUSTS TO 25 MPH COMBINED WITH A POWDERY SNOW PACK SHOULD RESULT IN
AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW THAT WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME
PROBLEMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR TRAVEL. A SHORTWAVE SFC RIDGE WILL
MOVE ACROSS SRN WI MON NT WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ARCTIC AIR
MAKING FOR ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT. SWLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TOWARD
MORNING AS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER FROM IT ON TUE
WITH THE SNOW REMAINING OVER NRN WI. DESPITE SWLY WINDS...HIGH
TEMPS TO ONLY REACH INTO THE TEENS. THE BRISK WINDS HOWEVER WILL
MAINTAIN VERY COLD WIND CHILLS FOR MON-TUE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

A COUPLE WEAK CLIPPERS WILL BRING ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
OR FLURRIES FOR TUE NT INTO POSSIBLY WED AND AGAIN FOR THU. ARCTIC
AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THU NT. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN
APPROACH FROM THE NRN PLAINS FOR LATE IN THE WEEK WITH WARM
ADVECTION BRINGING MODERATING TEMPS AND CHANCES OF LGT SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS TAF SITES. WEST NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...WITH
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA BY LATER TONIGHT.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TO KENOSHA AROUND 12Z
SUNDAY...AND MILWAUKEE/WAUKESHA BY 15Z SUNDAY. THE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WITH THE BAND WILL LINGER FOR A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD
THEREAFTER...WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OF 2 TO 3
MILES. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 0.5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. EAST
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY.

THE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION WILL REACH MADISON BY 15Z SUNDAY...AND
THE EASTERN SITES BY 18Z SUNDAY. THE SNOW WILL BECOME ALL LIGHT
BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z MONDAY WEST TO EAST ACROSS TAF SITES...THEN
ENDING BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z MONDAY SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL
VEER SOUTHWEST BY 06Z MONDAY...AND WEST BY 12Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW.

CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AT OR BELOW ALTERNATE MINIMUMS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH SOME 1/2 MILE VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THE
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OF THE LIGHT AND FLUFFY VARIETY. SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
RATES POSSIBLE. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED...HIGHEST AT MADISON/MILWAUKEE AND LOWEST AT KENOSHA.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GEHRING