Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 220849

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
349 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

High pressure remains in control over the Midwest. Temps are
several degrees warmer than last night for most areas across E
Iowa/NW Illinois from effects of light southerly winds and
scattered mid-level clouds. As of 3 AM CDT the warmest values, in
the 40s, were in the western half of the CWA. Mid/upper 30s were
observed in the east.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Today and Tonight: Beautiful late October weather. Mainly clear,
mild in the 60s, and light winds. For the overnight period, winds
will remain light as temps fall into the 40s. Very quiet weather
in store for today and tonight. Uttech

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Storm system around the middle of next week is the main focus in an
otherwise benign forecast.

Sunday will see a shortwave dive down through the Great Lakes with
attendant surface cold front sweeping across the cwa during the
afternoon. Moisture quite meager and mostly confined near to north
of the track thus expecting only some increase in clouds at best
especially the further north/east in our cwa. Cold air is lagging
a bit behind the front thus with deep mixing and some sunshine expect
temperatures to push well into the 60s and breach 70 in many areas
south of Hwy 30. Northwest winds will become gusty and may need to
be bumped up with NAM/GFS bufr soundings suggesting some gusts
possibly around 30 mph by mid to late afternoon especially across the

High pressure then builds in Sunday night through Monday providing
cooler and continued dry conditions, with temperatures closer to
normal and in the 30s to lower 40s for lows and 50s to lower 60s for

Focus then shifts to wet period of weather shaping up for around
the midweek timeframe, as shortwave energy ejects from a west
coast trough and undercuts a Plains ridge. Lee side cyclogenesis
occurs on Tuesday in response to aforementioned shortwave and left
exit region of Rockies upper jet. This low then tracks eastward
across the Mid-Mississippi Valley on Wednesday, although there still
is some uncertainty with exact track and strength as latent heat
processes and convective feedback may be steering low too far north
in models with jet and suggested triple point supporting some chance
of further south track in or near southern cwa. This track will loom
large to position of warm front with subsequent impact on temperatures
and rain amounts. Areas north of warm front in easterly flow and
clouds and rain likely to stay in the 40s for highs. Also, expect an
axis of potential heavy rain north of warm front given strong mid level
frontogenesis, and copious moisture with precipitable water values in
excess of 1.3 inches. Models are not latching onto much instability
due to deeply saturated vertical profile and warm 850-700 mb temperatures,
but given magnitude of forcing have kept slight chance to chance of storms.

In the wake of the storm system, the general consensus is for drier
and seasonal temperatures late week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

High pressure, centered just east of the Mississippi River as of
00Z, will slide east through Saturday, resulting in VFR conditions
continuing, and a wind switch from light and variable, to south to
southwest around 10 kts by Saturday morning. Some high clouds
will spread over the region will continue to thin and move east
through 09z, followed by mostly clear skies again later tonight
and all day Saturday. ERVIN




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