Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 230744
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
244 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM UPPER MI TO EASTERN IA AND THEN
TO CENTRAL TX. IN THE DVN CWA PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS FORMED ALONG
THE RIDGE LINE WHERE WINDS WERE CALM. WEST OF THE RIDGE IN THE
RETURN FLOW AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED AND EXPANDED IN
OUR NW CWA. OTHERWISE...SKIES WERE CLEAR OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA. 2 AM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 38 AT FREEPORT TO THE LOWER 50S
IN SE IA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

HEADLINES...WITH FREEPORT IN THE UPPER 30S AND SEVERAL HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL DROP INTO THE MID 30S.
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE FROST ADVISORY FOR STEPHENSON COUNTY
UNTIL 7 AM.

TODAY...PLEASANT SPRING DAY AHEAD AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE
SURFACE GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH HELPING TO PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

TONIGHT...STORM SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING INTO SD WITH AN INTENSIFYING
LOW LEVEL JET FROM THE PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN MN. RIDGING ALOFT WILL
STILL BE OVER THE CWA SO HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF POPS IN OUR
FAR NORTH DUE TO LACK OF FORCING AND DRY LOW LEVELS. THE BETTER
FORCING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS PUTS THE
DVN CWA SQUARELY IN THE WARM SECTOR. SOUTH WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
ON THE MILD SIDE...IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

A WARM START TO THE EXTENDED IS IN STORE SUNDAY...WITH GUSTY SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY...AND EVENTUALLY AN WEAK COLD
FRONT ARRIVES BY EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL ACTUALLY STALL BY EVENING
AS IT ENTERS THE WESTERN CWA...AND POSSIBLY RETROGRADE NORTH AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...LEAVING ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP FOR MONDAY. I HAVE USED
BIAS CORRECTED RAW BLENDED MODEL DATA FOR HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
IT SEEMS TO CAPTURE THE LIKELIHOOD OF DEEPER MIXING THAN MOS SUGGESTS.
WHILE THE GROUND IS MOIST...IT IS STILL BARE CROP FIELDS IN NEARLY
ALL OF THE CWA AND SHOULD WARM UP NICELY WITH THE LATE APRIL SUN.

POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT ARE RETAINED AT LIKELY NORTHWEST TO LOW CHANCE
EAST...AS A MATURE TO DISSIPATING LINE APPROACHES OUR CWA DURING THE
EVENING...AND DECAYS AS IT MOVES EAST. QPF SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT FOR THIS EVENT EXCEPT NORTHWEST WHERE IT MAY STILL BE ROBUST
ON ARRIVAL. AS FOR MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE WORKING EAST OVER
THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THIS MAY LEAD TO BETTER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND OFFERS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
OF A STRONGER STORM...HOWEVER...FORCING IS WEAK ALOFT...AND WITH
VEERED WINDS ALOFT...ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE QUICK TO SHIFT EAST OF THE
CWA BY MID EVENING.

THIS LEAVES TUESDAY AS THE LONE DRY DAY UNTIL FRIDAY. A PROGRESSIVE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
THIS WILL BRING PROGRESSIVE DEEP TROFS OF LOW PRESSURE EAST THROUGH
THE MIDWEST ON A REGULAR BASIS...AND LATE APRIL MOISTURE AND
HEATING...IT SETS THE STAGE FOR RATHER IMPRESSIVE WARM ADVECTION
RAINS. THE FIRST OF THESE EVENTS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A PERIOD WHICH MAY REQUIRE 100 PERCENT POPS.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER SEEMS TO BE THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY...AND THAT COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER ISOTHERMAL
FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY. COOL DAYS...MILD
NIGHTS...AND RAINY.

A TRANSITION TO HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY...WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO
ANOTHER DEEP TROF FOR THE WEEKEND. THE OVER ALL PATTERN FAVORS ABOVE
NORMAL RAINFALL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

A SMALL...SHRINKING REMNANT OF THE STRATUS THAT COVERED EASTERN
IOWA FRIDAY WAS IN THE VICINITY OF CID AT 04Z. THIS WAS IN AN AREA
OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE
OF A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM WI TO EASTERN MO. SHORT
TERM MODELS SUGGEST STRATUS MAY REGENERATING AT MVFR LEVELS IN
THIS AREA ALONG WITH POSSIBLE FOG BEFORE SUNRISE AND HAVE ADDED
THIS TO THE CID FORECAST. ELSEWHERE...WILL INCLUDE A LOW
CONFIDENCE TREND OF 4SM TO 6SM VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG DEVELOPING
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF SATURDAY MORNING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR STEPHENSON.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...SHEETS



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