Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 241759
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1259 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

06Z SFC DATA HAS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A STORM SYSTEM
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH 40S ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

QUIET AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TODAY AND TONIGHT AS COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE WONDERFULLY BEAUTIFUL NIGHTS AND
DAYS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER. HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 70S NORTH TO UPPER 70S SOUTH WILL RANGE WIDELY FROM THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

LOOKING BEYOND THURSDAY...THE MODELS ARE HIGHLY DIVERGENT WITH
RESPECT TO A POSSIBLE UPPER LOW PASSAGE THAT DEVELOPS FROM A SURGE
IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONVECTION THURSDAY. THE ECMWF TAKES THIS
UPPER LOW DIRECTLY OVER OUR CWA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY....WHILE THE
GFS IS LARGELY NORTH...AND GEM LARGELY SOUTH. NEEDLESS TO SAY WE
DONT REALLY KNOW WHERE THAT WEAK CLOSED FEATURE WILL TRACK...AND IF
IT REALLY DEVELOPS AS MODELS SUGGEST AFTER ALL. WE ARE HANDLING THIS
WILL A MODEL BLEND...WHICH HAS CHANCE POPS CENTERED ON FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE ECMWF SUPPORTS MAINLY A STRATIFORM RAIN
EVENT...I WILL KEEP WITH CLIMATOLOGICALLY SUPPORTED SHOWERS AND
STORMS...BUT WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF STORMS OUT OF THE HWO SINCE
THAT CHANCE OF RAIN (20 TO 40 PERCENT)...IS MUCH HIGHER THAN MY
CONFIDENCE ON LIGHTNING OR ANY OTHER STORM IMPACT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE PLAINS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED
15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...HAASE



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