Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 300212 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
912 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
SOME SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE REST OF THIS EVENING INTO
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONT FOR SE PARTS OF THE FA FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HOURS. WITH THIS IN MIND ADDED
POPS/WX FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AND AFTER 6Z PERIOD. ADJUSTED
SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FA. OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. UPDATES OUT
SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE OF THE DAY.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...THINK THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY...SURFACE HEATING...AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WEAK
COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS NEAR AND SOUTH OF A QUANAH
TEXAS TO WAURIKA TO ATOKA LINE. SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY...
THOUGH THEY MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCAL DOWNPOURS AS THEY
WILL BE SLOW MOVERS. KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCE IN THESE AREAS. STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE AT BEST AND MAY NOT OCCUR AT ALL AS
CAPPING IS RATHER STRONG.

AFTER 10 PM TONIGHT...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING
SKIES ARE EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA...MAINLY EAST OF AN ALVA TO WAURIKA LINE...BUT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS A MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL
GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE TOO LOW TO
MENTION.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  91  67  95 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         63  95  66  98 /  10  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  98  71  99 /  20  10   0   0
GAGE OK           57  93  62  97 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     63  89  66  93 /   0  10   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  96 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/30



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