Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 241147 AAA
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
547 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

.AVIATION...
24/12Z TAFs. IFR-LIFR conditions expected to continue much of the
morning at most terminals, with improvement from southwest to east
during the day. TSRA will affect KSPS/KLAW up through KOKC into
KPNC terminal areas through 18Z, ending from west to east. MVFR
to VFR conditions expected to spread from west to east after 18Z
as winds become westerly and drier air moves over region. Winds
will remain light most of the forecast period. Gusty west and
northwest winds expected across western Oklahoma terminals this
afternoon behind weak cold front. Fog will not be included for
late in the forecast with this issuance, but there appears to be
at least some concern for shallow fog toward end of forecast
period from KSPS/KLAW up through KOKC.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 358 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Given GFS bias of lowering pressures/cyclogenesis in region of
shallow cold air in place, GFS essentially discarded first 24-36
hours and ECM/NAM blend followed. Primarily impact will be lowered
high temperatures for today given slower erosion of cloud cover and
influx of colder air from the north/west this afternoon. Speaking
of colder temperatures, temps hovering near the freezing mark
across northwest Oklahoma will continue through at least 8 or 9 am
with potential for at least patchy freezing drizzle. No advisory
is anticipated with marginal temperatures, but if we can get some
ground truth of any problems, one will be issued for the early
morning hours.

This will also confine lower RH values and stronger winds over a
smaller portion of southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas.
Given recent moistening of fuels/surface layer, ERC-G values have
dipped and no Red Flag is anticipated. We will issue a fire danger
statement for portions of our northern Texas counties and perhaps
a couple of southwest counties for this afternoon.

Storms over south-central and southeast Oklahoma this morning
through early afternoon will remain elevated with primarily a
marginally severe hail threat. Heavy rainfall will continue to be
the main impact through early afternoon over areas that have seen
two to almost 5 inches of rain this week. The Flood Watch was kept
intact, but we did segment the watch to allow areas along and west
of I-35 to fall off at noon since any activity that gets going
should be east of those counties this afternoon.

We will need to watch for potential for areas or widespread ground
fog tonight and early Sunday, especially over areas that have
received heavy rainfall the past several days. Models all bring in
enough dry air to prevent dense fog conditions, but we will watch
closely for inclusion in later forecasts.

Both the GFS and ECM have slowed next week`s system down, with the
ECM cutting off upper system off and showing impacts through
Thursday. PoPs were extended through Wednesday night and will
likely be extended into Thursday if this slower trend continues.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  52  30  60  32 /  70   0   0   0
Hobart OK         57  30  61  29 /  30   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  61  33  64  31 /  80   0   0   0
Gage OK           48  28  57  26 /  20   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     46  25  57  28 /  60   0   0   0
Durant OK         63  36  63  40 / 100   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through this afternoon for OKZ032-042-043-047-048-
     051-052.

     Flood Watch until noon CST today for OKZ041-045-046-050.

TX...Flood Watch until noon CST today for TXZ090.

&&

$$

06/11


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