Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
FXUS64 KOUN 261122
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
622 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016
The 12Z aviation discussion follows....
There is quite a variety of ceiling heights and visibilities this
morning across Oklahoma and north Texas. The general trend between
12Z and 15Z will be toward higher ceilings and better
visibilities. However, thunderstorms are expected to form and/or
spread north across Oklahoma late this morning into the afternoon.
While there is substantial uncertainty regarding timing/location
of these storms, probabilities are high enough to warrant TEMPO
groups for TSRA at several sites from late morning into mid-
afternoon. Additional storms are expected to form later in the
afternoon and overnight. The current forecast places most of the
evening/overnight TSRA southeast of a line from KSPS to KPVJ to
KSNL. Stratus and BR are expected yet again overnight into
tomorrow morning across much of Oklahoma and north Texas.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 410 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/
Warm/hot and humid weather will continue through Sunday, followed
by slightly cooler weather early next week.
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected again today into
tonight as a couple of upper-level disturbances arrive from the
west, and interact with very unstable conditions over the southern
Plains. A few showers/storms, currently over central Texas, may
reach southern parts of our forecast area early this morning. More
widespread showers and storms are expected to develop around noon
as upper-level support arrives and weakens an already relatively
weak capping inversion. As the day progresses, the greatest rain
chances will shift to the southeast.
The main area of rain/storms will continue to shift slowly
southeast into southeastern Oklahoma tonight into Friday. While
storms will probably be much less numerous farther west, there
will still be some risk of severe storms over our entire forecast
area on Friday.
Heavy rain will be possible Friday in our far southeast counties,
as the second upper-level wave passes over the region. The exact
location of heavy rainfall will depend on the location of low-
level focusing mechanisms, and currently the best estimate is
roughly the southeastern quarter or so of Oklahoma.
Saturday will be relatively quiet, but rain and thunderstorms will
likely return to the region on Sunday. At this point, rain chances
look relatively high from Sunday through Thursday of next week.
While widespread heavy rainfall appears unlikely, locally heavy
rain will be a possibility through this period. There is some
significant difference of opinion between the medium-range models
next week, so the risk of severe weather is difficult to determine
at this time.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 84 66 81 63 / 40 50 40 20
Hobart OK 88 64 85 60 / 30 40 10 10
Wichita Falls TX 88 65 86 62 / 50 60 40 10
Gage OK 90 60 84 55 / 30 20 20 10
Ponca City OK 84 67 80 63 / 50 50 40 40
Durant OK 83 68 78 67 / 50 70 80 50