Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 271703
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1103 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Not much change to the forecast philosophy through the weekend, with
relatively benign weather expected outside of brief cold and warm
spells. Low clouds present this morning will gradually have some
breaks as the day progresses. Even with some insolation, cold air
will remain in place as a surface high pressure axis centers over
the CWA by midday. Highs will only reach the middle 20s to upper 30s
this afternoon. Initial northerly winds will become calm as the high
pressure axis moves through, before becoming southerly by late this
afternoon. Dry weather will prevail today into tonight.

Friday into Saturday will feature a notable warmup as weak upper
ridging, flattening and becoming westerly flow, across the western
two-thirds of the CONUS materializes. The low-level thermal axis
will develop over the central Plains and expand into our area early
this weekend. The end result is a quick warmup, with the warmest day
expected on Saturday, with highs reaching the middle 50s to middle
60s across the forecast area. Precipitation is not expected during
this multi-day period of warm weather, making for an optimal time
for any outdoor activities. There may be some stratus that forms
across portions of the CWA Saturday morning upon increasing moisture
advection, but these clouds should gradually mix out by midday.

As models gradually converge closer to a consensus on Sunday, a
fairly impressive temperature gradient is expected across the
forecast area. A cold front will push through the CWA beginning
Sunday morning. Areas over far northwest Missouri may see the warmest
temperatures around sunrise, with falling temperatures thereafter.
Warmer weather is expected with southern geographic extent with a
longer duration in the warm sector ahead of the front. Highs on
Sunday will range from the middle 30s far northwest MO to near 60
over central MO. Best probabilities of light precipitation should
exist to the southeast of the CWA.

The work week ahead looks cool, with temperatures generally below
normal. Substantial differences develop between model solutions after
Monday, with a temperature difference spread of 8C at H85 by
Thursday among several members. This leads to high forecast
uncertainty towards the end of the forecast period. Blended approach
keeps temperatures cool, but could certainly see a more aggressive
temperature swing in one direction or another depending on the the
eventual synoptic evolution, progressive versus highly amplified.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1053 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period. Mid-level
clouds will remain in place through much of Thursday prior to
scattering out overnight. Winds will vary initially while
becoming southeasterly and increasing slightly with time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Welsh





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