Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 032059

359 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Issued at 358 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Temperatures have warmed quite a bit across the area on Thursday
afternoon as southerly winds have picked up, bringing good
warm/moist air into the area. Heat indices have peaked in the middle
to upper 90s making for an uncomfortable afternoon. Given the
continued influence of the mid to upper level ridge through the rest
of the week and into the weekend, expect at least a few more days of
this uncomfortably warm/moist weather. With the mid level ridge
solidly in place expect the late week and weekend period to be
rather dry across the forecast area, with the lack of any real
synoptic or mesoscale focus for ascent.

The pattern will undergo a pretty dramatic change for the first part
of next week as the mid level ridge gradually breaks down, allowing
for SW flow aloft to move in, followed by eventual zonal flow
through the middle part of next week. Initial chances for rain will
likely form across the northwestern part of the CWA (NW MO) Sunday
night into Monday morning as a broad trough drops into the area. The
surface pattern indicates a surface ridge forming over the northern
plains, dipping into the area. This would likely serve as a focus
for showery activity for the Sunday night and Monday morning time
period. By Monday into Tuesday a surface trough will move into the
southern plains, which will bring a warm front back into the area
along with some mid level ascent, associated with the aforementioned
broad trough. These concurrent features will likely bring the best
chances for rain over that period, with the new forecast going with
"likely" PoPs for the Tuesday night and Wednesday period. By the
middle to latter part of next week, a surface front will drag
through the area, probably keeping rain chances going through at
least the middle part of the week, tapering off perhaps in to the
Wednesday night through Thursday night period as a more continental
air mass takes over. After a couple cooler days return flow
commences late next week, which might reintroduce more rain chances
in the Day 7+ time period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Little change to the ongoing aviation discussion. Backed off on wind
gusts for today, but introduced some higher wind around mid morning
on Friday. Otherwise VFR conditions anticipated for remainder of the
forecast period.




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