Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 020917
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
417 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 416 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

Today - Monday:

Band of scattered convection has developed from east central NE
through southeast MN in response to a h7 vorticity lobe noted in 00z
NAM. This activity precedes a cold front which will eventually move
into the CWA. Other isolated cells precede this band into north
central MO. Short range models have not picked up on this
convection. NAM does weaken this vorticity lobe so expectation is
the accompanying convection will also weaken/dissipate as it moves
into far northern MO.

Later this afternoon scattered convection expected to form along the
approaching cold front from NE through IA. Models show strong
instability with MLCAPES in excess of 4000J/kg along the front
during peak heating. A weak cap, h7 temperatures of +10C to +12C,
will temporarily hold back convection but do expect it to form by
late afternoon. 0-6km shear of 25-30kt barely supports severe
threat. Far northern MO will hold the best chance of seeing an
isolated severe storm with damaging winds the primary concern.
Lacking much forcing think convection will weaken through the
evening hours as it and the cold front drop southward through the
CWA.

As the cold front will linger over the CWA through the day on Monday
will paint slight chance PoPs over most of the region.

Boundary layer winds veering to the southwest today will allow
slightly hotter air to spread into the CWA so max temperatures in
the low-mid 90s likely. Saving grace from oppressive heat/humidity
will be dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. With the cold front
likely bisecting the CWA on Monday cooler and slightly drier air
will reside across the northern 1/3 of the CWA while hot and humid
conditions will continue over the far southern CWA.

Tuesday - Saturday:

Not much change seen in the extended forecast as the pattern remains
unsettled with Tuesday into Wednesday presenting the best chance for
precipitation as a stronger shortwave tracks east out of the Central
Rockies. Below average temperatures likely through Friday due to
rain chances and extensive cloud cover.

GFS/ECMWF build the upper ridge northward through the High Plains by
Saturday while high pressure builds southwest from the Great Lakes
and dries out the region. A favorable by-product will be cooler
temperatures as well with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the period with
southerly winds becoming southwesterly and increasing slightly by
Sunday afternoon. A frontal boundary over Nebraska will work its way
southeastward Sunday afternoon and could trigger some evening
thunderstorms for KSTJ. As of now, current thinking is that this
activity will remain north of the area at least through the end of
the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Welsh


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