Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 281038
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
538 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A well defined upper short wave trough diving south through the
Midwest is bringing light mixed precipitation to mainly the eastern
half of the forecast area. This precip should persist through just
after sunrise before vacating the area and leaving dry conditions
through the remainder of the day. Temperatures should be able to
climb into the 40s to lower 50s this afternoon. Another ridge-riding
shortwave, currently moving ashore in the Pacific Northwest, will
move through the area late tonight and early Sunday. This wave and
its associated front will bring another good chance for light
precipitation across the region. There won`t be much of a cool down
associated with this front given the Pacific nature to the airmass.
So highs Sunday should still be able to upper 50s and 60s.

Monday and Tuesday actually look quiet at this point. But the
region should still be in a northwesterly flow regime so there may
be an embedded shortwave move through that isn`t resolved,
potentially spreading some light activity over the region. Otherwise,
temperatures look to be mild with highs in the 60s and 70s.

Our next chance for precipitation may come Wednesday into Wednesday
night. A weak southern system may help to spread moisture northward
in time for a stronger northerly flow system to interact with it.
That system will track across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest
with a trailing cold front surging southward. While there may be
some showers or storms during the day Wednesday, the better chances
for more widespread precipitation may come Wednesday night as the
cold front moves into/through the area. Models begin to diverge
significantly after this time with the ECMWF developing a rather
deep surface low, ahead of stronger northern stream shortwave, over
the Great Lakes region. This helps to spread additional
moisture/precipitation over the region Thursday night. The GFS
however, has a surface high pressure building into the region with a
shortwave ridge building east. Confidence greatly decreases late next
week and as a result have not deviated from the forecast
initialization.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 538 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR conditions look likely through the forecast. Overcast mid-level
clouds this morning should become scattered this afternoon. That
should persist through most of the rest of the forecast. However
another storms system will move into the region late tonight and
spread lower clouds into the area. The main factor will be timing the
front which for now looks to occur after this forecast. So ceilings
should remain VFR but are dependent upon the timing of a front late
in the period. Winds will veer throughout the day and increase in
speed overnight with southerly winds expected potentially gusting in
the 20 to 25 kt range by late tonight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB






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