000
FXUS63 KEAX 101721
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1121 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2013

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 258 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

A clipper system will dive southeastward through the Dakotas and
into Iowa tonight, bringing light snow to that region. There may be
some snow that spreads into extreme northern Missouri overnight but
don`t expect anything to accumulate as the best forcing is to the
north in Iowa. The bigger story with this system will be the strong
cold front with another blast of bitterly cold air moving in behind
it. The front looks to be through the forecast area early in the
morning on Wednesday and there will be very strong cold advection
behind the front as yet another very strong high pressure area surges
down the Plains. The cold advection will offset most, if not all, of
the diurnal warming and temperatures may only rebound several
degrees, if that at all, during the day. High temperatures will
either be set overnight or early in the morning in most locations
and then fall through day. Despite the 1040+ mb high moving right
across the area, it looks like it won`t settle over us overnight, but
rather progress through rapidly and be to our southeast by Thursday
morning. So while lows will again be flirting with zero in some
locations, it doesn`t appear to be as bad as it could be due to winds
likely not decoupling. Surface winds will shift to the southwest
during the day as the high pressure area will be well to the
southeast of the area. This will allow for a decent rebound in
temperatures and parts of the forecast will very likely get into the
middle 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 258 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

Main concern in the extended period continues to be the potential
for a winter storm on Friday/Friday night. Cold air which has been
firmly entrenched over the air the past six days will continue to
reside over the area by Friday morning as morning lows will be in
the mid teens to lower 20s. However, WAA will be underway early
Friday out ahead of an upper level shortwave moving through the
central/southern Plains. Gulf moisture will stream northward into
the area and this cold air. GFS bufr soundings show a pronounced
warm nose above the surface with below freezing temperatures at the
surface Friday morning and most of the day Friday which would lead
to a freezing rain scenario. The ECMWF is warmer than the GFS with
highs warming above freezing across the entire CWA on Friday
afternoon. As such, have light freezing rain in the grids for Friday
morning. But, to account for the cold GFS solution and the warmer EC
solutions have added freezing rain/or rain across the southern CWA
with snow or ice pellets along and north of the I-70 corridor. A
cold front will work through the CWA Friday night advecting cold air
into the region and we will see precipitation change over to snow.
Snow totals currently look like they will be light for Friday night
ranging from half an inch across the western CWA to an inch and half
across the eastern CWA.

The rest of the extended time frame looks benign as far as
precipitable weather however, it looks to be continually cold. Have
trended to the cold side of guidance with the potential for there to
be snow on the ground. Saturday, cold air advection will keep highs
in the lower 20s to lower 30s. Another cold surface high pressure
will build into the area on Saturday night and will reside over the
area on Sunday with highs only reaching the upper teens to upper
20s. Monday, temperatures will moderate somewhat with a return to
southerly flow with highs in the mid 20s to mid 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1120 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

VFR conditions are expected at all the terminals for the next 24
hours. Only issue to watch might be bumpy conditions late tonight as
the nocturnal jet gets going. The nose of tonight`s jet will be
focused across central into eastern Missouri, so have kept low level
wind shear out of the terminals for now.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...Cutter