Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 102210
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
410 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 408 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

Quite a temperature gradient across the CWA this afternoon with
highs in the 20s and low 30s throughout the northeast half and 40s
and low 50s across the southwest. A quick little clipper system
moving through strong northwest flow aloft brought a quick inch of
snow to much of north-central and central Missouri. This snowband
will rapidly taper off over the next several hours. Further to the
southwest, moderate mixing down of 850 mb temperatures have led to
gusty southwest winds advecting much warmer temperatures into eastern
Kansas and western Missouri. This has also helped to erode much of
the cloud cover across this area.

Low stratus deck will build back over the CWA tonight as surface low
drops southward into Oklahoma and surface high migrates southward
out of the Northern Plains. Winds will become more northerly tonight
behind the departing system and will allow for sufficient mixing in
the boundary layer to mitigate the potential for fog. Another quick
moving clipper type system overnight Thursday will bring another
shot for light snow across northeast portions of the CWA through
Friday morning. The coldest day this week will arrive Saturday as
Canadian high pressure surges down into the central US. High
temperatures will only make it to the teens across the northeast
half of the CWA with 20 to maybe low 30s further south and west.

The next system to keep an eye on will impact the region Saturday
night and Sunday with the potential for rain, snow, and a wintry mix
throughout the day. Long-range models still have a few differences
in timing and location of the system, and this will affect the
timing of precipitation and potential precip types. Right now
temperatures look to stay near or slightly above freezing late
Sunday morning and afternoon, so timing will be an important factor
in precip impacts. For now have kept a rain/snow mix in the forecast
for areas that look to reach near to above freezing.

After the weekend system moves out, above normal temperatures return
to the region and might lead to a bit of spring fever as highs
approach the 50s and 60s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1104 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

Stratus deck has been scattering out through the morning across
eastern KS and western MO. Mixing along and and south of this stratus
deck has led to breezy surface winds and clearing skies. Most, if not
all terminals, will clear by this afternoon but models build stratus
deck back across the region as high pressure moves into the region
overnight. Short term guidance and bufkit soundings try and develop a
brief period of light fog between 9-12Z. With terminals on the
western edge of high pressure, believe that winds will stay up enough
overnight to mitigate fog development. Stratus deck will try to erode
by late in the period.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PMM
AVIATION...PMM


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