Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 051140

640 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Issued at 408 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

While the surface ridge has essentially moved out of the forecast
area there is still only a weak surface pressure gradient over
eastern Kansas and western Missouri, which is preventing the surface
flow from really picking up. As a result of the calm surface flow and
a decent inversion some hazy conditions linger into the morning
hours, with some of it coming by way of some patchy light fog and
smoke from Canadian wild fires and perhaps some influence within
urban areas of overnight firework consumption. At any rate, within
the next few hours the surface pressure gradient will tighten up
between the eastern surface ridge and a decently deep surface trough
over the western High Plains. This southerly flow will get winds
going and bring in warmer/moister air into the area. The best chance
for any rain for Sunday will be along the far western fringe of the
forecast area where some modest isentropic lift will supply some
lift. While the western CWA will see the best chance for rain those
chances will remain low as forecast soundings don`t indicate much in
the way of column saturation, despite being mostly uncapped.

By Monday a cold front will be stationed just off to the northwest,
and will eventually move southward into the forecast area, likely in
the Monday evening to Monday night time frame. The main change to
this forecast package is to hold off on the timing of this broad mid
level trough and it`s associated surface cold front. Generally,
expect the far northwest corner of MO to see the frontal boundary
Monday evening, with the KC Metro and areas of central and southern
Missouri to see the front during the late evening to overnight
period. The main hazard with this round of showers will be more
flooding, as the area remains a bit damp after recent rains. PWAT
values still anticipated to approach 2 to 2.5 inches will allow for
very efficient rain rates, allowing for some areas to get several
inches of rain during the overnight period on Monday. With ample
moisture in the area instability will be rather high, however deep
layer shear is not anticipated to be very large, so the synoptically
driven severe weather concerns are rather low. That being said, with
the large coverage of strong storms micro/mesoscale factors with
storm interactions and potential cold pool organization could result
in some isolated wind concerns. By Tuesday afternoon the front
should reach the southern edge of the forecast area, drying out a
large portion of northern and central Missouri. Parts of southern
Missouri, mainly between I-70 and I-44 could see some showers and
thunderstorms hang on through a good portion of the day on Tuesday.

The wet pattern will likely hold on through the week, mainly in the
previously mentioned south-of-I70 area as the boundary stalls in
that corridor. With southwest flow aloft taking form as well as a
few shortwave troughs, it will bring a prolonged period of
off-and-on rain showers through the rest of the week. As the week
progresses the boundary will eventually push north, allowing the
corridor for heavy rain to move back to the I-70 area by mid to late
week. With the mostly zonal flow over the area not really going
anywhere for the week, there will be several periods of moderate to
heavy rain, again most likely along or just south of the I-70
corridor. Specific timing and details of this rainy period can be
nailed down in upcoming forecasts, but it does appear to be a rather
rainy period with several inches of rain falling across a large
portion of the CWA through the week next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 628 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

Early morning haze will eventually improve to VFR levels. Thereafter
expect winds to pick up to around 10 to 15 kts through the day,
relaxing around sunset to around 5 to 10 kts.




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