000
FXUS63 KEAX 270515
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1215 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 255 PM CDT WED JUL 26 2017

Widespread cloud cover and scattered showers have persisted
through the day likely in response to a mid/upper trough which is
currently pushing through the area this hour. The axis of this
trough appears to be over central Iowa and north central  and
will continue to move east with time. Ahead of the main cloud
shield temperatures have continue to rise to around 90 degrees
with dew points in the 70 to 75 degree range. This has allowed for
ML CAPE values to rise into the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range, and may
trigger some thunderstorm activity into central Missouri. This
likelihood is low mainly due to surface winds already veering
that area, but its still worth keeping an eye on that area for
later development. Behind the clouds temperatures have struggled
to make it to 80 degrees, thus the heat advisory concerns have
been minimized and the heat advisory cancelled earlier in the day.
Also behind this area of clouds have generally mitigated the
destabilization of the atmosphere in this area, and minimized the
chances for any severe weather later this evening. Despite the
minimized severe weather concerns the surface boundary that will
be the main player for activity later tonight is currently located
over SE Nebraska and will sag southward through the evening and
overnight. H85 winds out of the southwest will pick up later
tonight and be oriented roughly parallel to the surface boundary.
This will likely cause a second round of thunderstorm development
later tonight, mainly along the HWY 36 corridor, and more
generally across northern and western Missouri. PWAT values in the
2 to 2.5 inch range will make for efficient rain rates and
perhaps some training of storms. Expect widespread amounts
approaching 1 to 2 inches, with perhaps some isolated amounts or
narrow corridors having higher than 2 inch amounts. Flash flood
guidance across that region around 3 inches for 3 hours have
precluded much in the way of concern for widespread flash
flooding, but considering the conditions of the atmosphere and
potential for training storms have kept the flash flood watch in
effect through Thursday morning.

Once these storms move out of the area and the boundary sags south
cooler conditions will persist through the rest of the week and
the weekend. Next chance for rain comes early to middle part of
next week, but at this time it`s looking like low end chances
across the region.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT THU JUL 27 2017

Forecast on track for continued SHRA and TSRA overnight although
further south than previously thought. Some IFR cigs and vsbys in
heavier showers and residual fog in early morning possible. By
later in the am expect MVFR to VFR conditions. Winds will remain
light from the north or northeast today.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for KSZ025-057-
     102>105.

MO...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for MOZ012>014-017-
     020>025-028>033-037>039-043-044.

&&

$$

Discussion...Leighton
Aviation...Adolphson