000
FXUS63 KEAX 191129
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
629 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Saturday - Monday:

Great weather will persist through much of the weekend with highs
today likely 10 degrees or so warmer than yesterday. Southerly winds
will increase later this morning and this, combined with mostly
clear skies, warmer temperatures aloft and increased thicknesses will
allow temperatures to climb into the upper 70s. A few areas may climb
to near 80 degrees. Winds will decrease some overnight but winds
should remain in the 5 to 10 mph range which will keep the boundary
layer mixed enough to allow for relatively warm overnight with lows
in the lower to upper 50s.

Temperatures remain more complicated for Sunday. A weak frontal
boundary will be the focus for precipitation from northern Kansas
through Nebraska and into Iowa. Some of this may work as far south
and east to move into far northwestern Missouri late Saturday night,
aided by a weak low-level jet nosing into Nebraska. Aloft, a weak
upper-level shortwave trough will move into the Southern Plains
through the day. There will be little southward movement of the
surface boundary throughout the day, assuming stronger convection
doesn`t develop to our north and force any boundary further south.
With the slow eastward movement of the upper trough, it`s growing
more likely that precipitation chances will remain in our western
zones and especially across Kansas. So have continued to trend the
highest PoPs further west, keeping the eastern two-thirds of the
forecast area dry throughout the day Sunday. With the delayed onset
of precipitation and persistent warm advection, we should see highs
similar to Saturday in most areas. So at this time mid to upper 70s
look likely into Sunday. The one caveat is if cloud cover is thicker
than anticipated, high temperatures would not be nearly as high.
CAPE/shear combinations don`t look strong enough to support severe
weather Sunday with 0-6km shear generally less than 25kts and CAPE
generally less than 1000 J/kg.

Precipitation chances will linger into the day on Monday as the weak
upper trough slowly tracks through the area. Again the combination
of weak shear and modest instability suggest the threat of any
severe storms looks very low. Precipitation is expected to end from
northwest to southeast through the afternoon with cloud cover
thinning in a similar fashion. This complicates the temperature
forecast and areas in northwestern Missouri should see highs that
are warmer than central Missouri.

Tuesday - Friday:

We`ll see relatively cooler, though still close to normal,
temperatures Tuesday compared to the weekend. High pressure will
settle into the Plains/Upper Midwest so despite shortwave ridging,
temperatures in the mid 60s to lower 70s look likely at this point.
That high will quickly shift to the east by Wednesday and the
shortwave ridge will start to be replaced by a trough moving into
the Northern Rockies. A strong low-level jet will develop in
response to the eastward moving trough. This should mainly focus
north of the forecast area but there may be some precipitation move
into northern Missouri as a result. The shortwave will then push a
cold a front through the area on Thursday. Depending on the timing
of the front, which is very uncertain due to large model
variability, there may be some potential for strong to severe
storms Thursday. The most favorable model solution for this is the
GFS, which brings the front through the area through the afternoon
hours allowing for good instability to build with favorable shear.
However the ECMWF is faster, moving things through the area much
earlier in the day. For now, will just continue a low chance mention
of severe weather until models come into better agreement.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 629 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the entire forecast period. Light
southerly winds this morning will increase by mid morning with winds
becoming sustained from the south around 15 to 20 mph with gusts of
25 to 30 mph. Winds will decrease around sunset but with the boundary
layer not completely decoupled should remain around 10 kts through
the night. A frontal boundary well to the northwest of the terminals
may bring convection into far northwestern Missouri/ far northeastern
Kansas. Any convection late in the valid period is expected to remain
well to the northwest of the terminals.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB