000
FXUS63 KEAX 082054
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
254 PM CST Sat Mar 8 2014

.SHORT TERM...This Evening through Sunday
Issued at 252 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

A rain and snow mix will continue to scrape the far southern edge of
the forecast area this afternoon, then should gradually diminish as
it pushes southward out of the area this evening. Little to no snow
accumulation is expected.

Otherwise, quiet conditions are on tap for the area this evening and
into Sunday as surface high pressure drifts southward and longwave
ridging builds overhead. High temperatures should climb into the mid
to upper 50s by late Sunday afternoon as the high transitions south
and increasing southwest winds help mix down 925 temperatures in the
+8 to +10 degree C range, especially across our northwest and far
west. Mainly clear skies will also help the warm-up even in areas
that don`t see the wind shift until early in the evening; hence the
widespread 50s across the CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 252 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

Above normal temperatures are expected Monday through Saturday, with
the exception of Wednesday, with afternoon temperatures primarily in
the 50s and 60s. Upper ridging from an approaching positively-tilted
upper trough over the Intermountain West will commence Monday, with
warm H85 temperatures overspreading much of the Central Plains.
Relative humidity values may fall into the upper 20 percent range,
but do not anticipate widespread fire weather concerns. The upper
trough will move into the Plains on Tuesday, with much of the CWA
remaining in the warm sector through the afternoon. An associated
cold front has been a little slower than previous model solutions
and is expected to push through the CWA Tuesday evening, ushering in
cooler air upon breezy northerly winds with an increasing pressure
gradient. Primary weather challenge during the forecast period
remains on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. There remains a
moderate spread among model members with regards to overall
precipitation coverage and the vertical temperature/moisture
profile. The general model consensus suggests post-frontal
precipitation will develop Tuesday evening and overspread much of
the forecast area overnight. Initial precipitation may fall in the
form of rain as a warm nose of +4C around H8 remains as the layer
saturates. Cold air advection rapidly cools the layer with time,
with precipitation potentially switching to all snow prior to drier
air ending the precipitation. The biggest model uncertainty remains
with the speed of the column cooling and the arrival of drier air
ending the precipitation, both of which will have a profound effect
to the anticipated weather type and accumulation. Cooler weather is
expected for Wednesday with the departing upper trough, before a
period of weak ridging develops with warmer weather returning
Thursday into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

MVFR stratus will continue to stream east northeast early this
afternoon, but will also gradually erode from northwest to southeast.
Scattered to broken stratus with bases between 3-4 kft will also push
southeast this afternoon, eventually clearing out this evening. All
TAF sites should become VFR by 21z, and remain VFR through the rest
of the forecast period. North winds at around 10 kts will diminish
this evening, becoming light northeast.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...Laflin