Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 252333

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
633 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

Issued at 342 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

Short Term (Today through Friday night):

Showers and thunderstorms from this morning/early afternoon have
dissipated and the remainder of the evening is expected to remain
dry. Convection is expected to develop along a dryline out across
central Kansas late this afternoon and spread eastward tonight.
These storms will be in a weakening phase as they approach the area
however the western portion of the CWA may experience scattered
showers and thunderstorms tonight. Overnight...a shortwave moving
through the base of a trough across the northern Plains will force a
back door front towards the area and showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop along this front and sink into northern
Missouri. These storms are also expected to be in a weakening phase
as they sink into the CWA. The best chance for severe weather will
occur late tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night. This will occur
as an upper level trough ejects out into the central High Plains.
This will provide the forcing for thunderstorms to develop along a
dryline out across western Kansas and then move east-northeastward
along a warm front which be progged to extend near the KS/NE border.
All modes of severe weather will be possible west of the area with
hail and damaging winds the main threats across the local area
tomorrow evening into tomorrow night. Storms are expected to
continue into Friday morning. The upper level trough will move into
the central Plains on Friday and weaken as it does. Consequently,
with morning storms helping to limit instability and a weakening
trough, severe potential should be minimized. Thunderstorm chances
are however expected to continue Friday into Friday night.

Extended Term: (Saturday through Wednesday):

The extended period looks to be a continuation of the unsettled
weather pattern. Saturday and Sunday the upper trough will slowly
move through the eastern Plains and into the Midwest continuing
scattered thunderstorm chances through the weekend. By the beginning
of next week the pattern reverts back to a similar one to the one at
the beginning of this week with a trough over the southwestern CONUS
and southwesterly flow aloft across the local area. Several
shortwaves ejecting out ahead of the trough over the southwestern
CONUS will continue scattered thunderstorm chances for the first
half of next week.


.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 633 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

VFR conditions will start the evening, but might give way to just
barely MVFR skies as cloud cover out of south central Kansas moves
across western Missouri later this evening, which will also bring
the onset for any VCTS that might bubble up tonight. Confidence on
specific timing is low, but in general think the low level jet
tonight should generate some storms somewhere across western Missouri
late tonight. Then we could have some lower MVFR clouds stick around
through the morning hours before scattering out Thursday afternoon,
just in time for afternoon thunderstorm development. Additionally,
winds Thursday afternoon might get a little gusty as clouds clear and
boundary layer mixing works with a tightening pressure gradient.


.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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