Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 032324

624 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2015

Issued at 308 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

Very quiet 24 hours or so in store for the forecast area as
surface high pressure moves in and takes control for the holiday.
Lingering moisture across the southern portions of the forecast
area this afternoon as shortwave trough makes its exit could be
enough to generate some light showers with perhaps a rumble of
thunder but any precip will be isolated in nature. With drier air
moving in from the north, it will be a rather pleasant evening as
skies continue to clear out from north to south and dewpoints in
the 50s take over. The pleasant early July weather will continue
through tomorrow with mostly sunny skies lasting all day.

As the high moves off toward the east on Sunday, southerly flow
will return, along with the increasing heat, humidity, and chances
for convection. Plentiful instability will have worked its way
back into the region later in the day on Sunday and with just
enough shear to maintain decent updrafts, could see some stronger
storms possible Sunday late afternoon and into the evening hours
across the western portions of the forecast area. Frontal boundary
working its way down from the NW still looks to cross much of the
forecast area on Monday before slowing and potentially
washing/stalling out somewhere in central to possibly southern MO.
Very good moisture transport into the region will force PWATs to
increase quite a bit ahead of the boundary. This setup looks
reminiscent of yet another potential moderate to heavy rainfall
event but with models wavering on agreement from about Tuesday
onward, still looking for the details to come into better view for
higher confidence on this event`s evolution and local impacts.

As alluded to, models diverge on handling things from the middle
of next week onward. The GFS and GEM seem to be lining up with
each other while the ECMWF depicts a different output. Regardless,
the pattern still generally looks a bit unsettled, opening up the
door for convection chances each day as zonal flow dominates and
perturbations traverses through.

High temps will be on the cooler side for typical early July
temps, reaching the mid 80s for Independence Day. Return to near
normal highs arrive on Sunday and possibly into Monday (at least
across the southern portions of the forecast area), before cooling
back off a bit behind the fropa on Tuesday. Eighties look to
dominate through the latter half of the week and lows will be in
the 60s and 70s, with lower 60s expected tonight.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

Morning fog is only possible concern for the next 24 hours. With
light winds under clear skies overnight...there is a possibility of
some IFR or LIFR fog...but, this is most likely only going to be a
factor at KSTJ for a couple of hours around sunrise. The other three
terminals should have enough dry air advected in that will not plan
to put in TAF. Will have to watch for moisture trapped near the
ground from so much rain over the past several days that could form
some light fog over the area over the other three terminals in addition
to KSTJ. After any fog that forms burns off...VFR with light winds
will prevail over at least the next 24 hours.




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