Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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850
FXUS63 KEAX 310459
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1159 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 310 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

Thunderstorms have popped up across southern and western portions of
the forecast area with additional smaller cells making an appearance
across NW MO. The trend over the next few hours will be for these
areas to continue to see activity until after sunset, at which point
intensity and coverage should wane as these storms are primarily
diurnally-driven. Plentiful instability and steep lapse rates have
been assisting the storms to quickly pulse up toward sub-severe to
perhaps just shy of severe levels but quickly comes back down in
intensity. Shear is rather weak and the storms have had a history of
becoming outflow dominated shortly after their maturation so any
severe threat is expected to be on the low side with any stronger
storm that may develop. As for heavy rain potential, that is
certainly a possibility for these storms given the increasing PWAT
values throughout the day. Latest SPC mesoanalysis indicates 1.4 to
1.5 inches of precipitable water values creeping in across the
southern third of the forecast area. These values are within the 90th
percentile as compared to normal for this time of year. All of this
said, the primary hazards will be gusty to perhaps damaging winds,
hail, and locally heavy rainfall. With a 700mb ridge just off toward
the east of the area, storms will generally follow the south-to-north
movement they`ve been on but flow at this level is rather weak so
they`ll not only be slow to move, but potentially allow themselves to
become latched onto localized boundaries that may linger in the area.
Coupling the aforementioned discussion about heavy rain with the slow
movement of these storms, flooding will be a possibility tonight,
especially in areas where flash flood guidance is rather low, thanks
to all of the recent rainfall.

For tomorrow, chances for storms to become strong to perhaps severe
look better given the incoming upper-level trough axis swinging
through, assisting with keeping a frontal boundary moving along.
Moisture out ahead of the front will be abundant and once again
coupled with plentiful instability and steep lapse rates, storms
pulsing up in severity will be possible. Again though, the limiting
factor will be the lack of decent shear. Front looks to start coming
through the NW part of the forecast area tomorrow afternoon into the
evening hours, making most of its way through the area by Wednesday
morning. Can`t rule out continued precip chances well into Wednesday
across the south and east, even though the front may have cleared, as
the aforementioned trough aloft traverses through.

Once the upper trough moves through, the latter half of the week will
be drier and seasonably warm as surface high pressure takes control.
The next chance for storms arrives next weekend with the next frontal
boundary anticipated to move through. More details as that time
approaches.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

A little bit of a challenging fcst going forward early this morning
as fcst models continue to hint at reduced visibilities by early
morning. Main caveat seen right now is upstream cloud cover
associated with Central Plains convection that will continue sliding
east during the early morning hrs. Due to this uncertainty...have
elected to offer MVFR restrictions at the three KC terminals...while
leaving out any mention out of STJ as model progs show the best
potential for fog across southeastern Kansas and west-central
Missouri. Beyond this...main shwr/storm activity expected to move
through the area during the mid-afternoon hrs with restrictions
down the MVFR and potentially IFR likely. Activity should come to an
end after the 03z time frame or so with improvements likely through
the conclusion of the fcst period.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...lg
Aviation...32



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