Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 281117
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
617 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

Today - Wednesday:

There are a few concerns in the short term. The first of which will
be the continued heat today. Similar 850mb temperatures in
comparison to yesterday with much less cloud cover will yield highs
in the low to mid 90s. Factoring the humidity and the heat index
will rise into the 102 to 109 degree range. As such, have continued
to maintain the excessive heat warning and heat advisory we have in
effect until 9PM. Relief from the heat however, will be on the way
this evening in the form of a cold front. This morning, an upper
level low and associated upper trough is moving through northern
Montana. This upper trough will swing into the northern Plains today
forcing the cold front into northwestern Missouri around 00Z. Model
soundings suggest the cap will hold through the day today however,
it looks to weaken this evening. Thunderstorms will develop across
the area this evening as the cold front begins to move through the
area. Organized severe potential looks low at this time as forcing
and shear (both 1km and 6km) look weak. Instability, however, will
continue to be strong with 2000-3000J/kg of MUCAPE across northern
Missouri. That being the case, there will be the possibility of
isolated severe storms capable of producing damaging winds and
perhaps some marginally severe hail. Although the set-up does not
scream flash flooding, with PWAT values hovering around 2" any
stronger storms that do develop should be efficient rain producers
and could be capable of producing local flash flooding. This front
will then continue to sink across the forecast area overnight with
storms weakening. These storms are expected to exit the area by
early Wednesday morning. Surface high pressure will then look to
build into the area Wednesday afternoon bring lower humidity and
much more pleasant highs in the low to mid 80s.

Wednesday night Saturday:

Surface high pressure will remain in place through Friday keeping
conditions dry. Temperatures will be seasonable with highs in the
mid 80s to around 90 on Thursday and Friday. Saturday, we will being
to see a pattern shift as an upper level ridge that is entrench over
much of the southern CONUS through the end of the work week will
begin to shift to the west and build. This will put the area on the
periphery of the lee side of the ridge. Highs Saturday will still
remain in the mid 80s to near 90.

Saturday night - Tuesday:

This period looks to potentially be more active as the area remains
on the eastern edge of the ridge over the western CONUS. Although
there is little agreement on timing between the GFS and EC, both
models do suggest several shortwave will round the ridge and bring a
few rounds of thunderstorms to the area through this period.
Although much will depend on the evolution of any thunderstorms
activity, highs Sunday and Monday are forecast to range from the mid
80s to the lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 617 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR conds will prevail through this evening with just a few-sct high
clouds. Tonight a cold front will push through the terminals between
04Z-07Z. Thunderstorms are expected behind the cold front which may
reduce vsbys to 5SM however cigs should remain around 5kft. Winds
will be out of the south around 10kts this morning but will increase
to 10-15kts with gusts btn 20-25kts by this afternoon. Winds will
diminish this evening and veer to the SW as the cold front approaches
before shifting to the NW behind the front btn 5-10kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ057-
     060-103>105.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-102.

MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ028-
     029-037>040-043>046-053-054.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ005>008-013>017-
     020>025-030>033.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73


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