Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 251156
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
656 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 344 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

Scattered rain showers are ongoing across the area this morning, as
a mid level trough slowly pushes east through the Mid Missouri River
Valley this weekend. At the surface, a cold front is positioned
along a line generally from KOMA to KDDC. Behind this cold front
much cooler and drier air is present across the northern and central
plains. By Sunday afternoon this cold front should push through the
area. The result will be an effective end to the chances for rain
from W/NW to E/SE as the dry air moves in and subsidence aloft
builds in behind the departing trough. In the mean time, while the
trough axis is still to the west of the area and warm/moist air is
still present we will continue to see scattered showers. By this
afternoon some modest instability could build back into the area,
which will cause some of these showers to become a bit more robust
than the showers ongoing through the early morning hours. Thunder
within these showers should pick up through the day. Not
anticipating much in the way of strong or severe storms, there could
be some rumbles of thunder today along with brief periods of
moderate to heavy rain. Minor river flooding is ongoing among a few
local creeks and streams, but the amount of flooding through the day
is not anticipated to increase much. As mentioned earlier the cold
front will move through the area later this afternoon which will end
the chances for rain upon its passage. The cooler/drier air behind
the front will bring much needed relief from the recent much-above
normal temperatures. We are looking at around normal highs through
the week with max temps likely being in the middle 70s. Usable
moisture appears to be lacking through the extended forecast period,
so will keep PoPs minimal (dry) through the next 7 days.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 651 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

Off and on rain will continue through the morning hours before moving
out of the area later this afternoon. There are a few pockets of IFR
CIGS that could bring some brief IFR conditions to the terminals
through the next few hours, but confidence on these areas of low
stratus making their way into the terminals is rather low. Cold front
moves through later this morning/afternoon marking the end of the
rain and the beginning of gusty northerly winds around 10 to 20 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Leighton
Aviation...Leighton



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