Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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924
FXUS63 KEAX 272325
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
625 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 254 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

A quieter afternoon for much of the area so far with much weaker
forcing for thunderstorms than we`ve seen the last few days. While
this should generally remain the case overnight, the airmass remains
very unstable and uncapped so it wouldn`t take much to spark off a
few showers or storms later this afternoon or this evening. The most
likely area to see any such activity looks to be across east central
KS into western MO near the Missouri River where a congested cumulus
field can be seen bubbling up along and just south of a subtle
surface boundary. It`s possible that a few storms could pop up along
this feature over the next few hours as a very weak wave comes out of
central KS. Shear is very weak so any storms that do develop should
be unorganized with brief downpours and some lightning the main
threats. The lack of organized forcing and shear should prevent rain
on a large enough scale that would cause any additional flooding
problems this evening.

Sunday will be similar to today with an unstable airmass developing
by afternoon but no defined forcing mechanism to focus any organized
thunderstorm activity. Will therefore maintain 20-30 percent PoPs for
the afternoon when isolated storms could again pop up, but again no
signal is in place for any heavy rain or flooding concerns at this
time.

Thunderstorm chances will increase Tuesday through Thursday as the
upper ridge in place begins to break down a bit and allows a stream
of weak upper waves to pass to our north. This will set the stage for
more widespread rainfall particularly by Weds and Thurs when a weak
front will slide in from the northeast. Increasing deep-layer
moisture could favor some pockets of heavy rain by this time,
although for now there`s not any clear signal that a heavy rain event
will set up next week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

Isolated showers and storms from east central KS into west central MO
are expected to dissipate by mid evening. Expect torrential
downpours with VFR ceilings but MVFR/IFR visibilities with the
strongest storms. From mid evening through the overnight hours into
late morning we should see limited cloud cover and dry conditions.
We again could see isolated convection pop up just about anywhere by
mid Sunday afternoon. Outside of any storms we should see VFR
conditions.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Hawblitzel
Aviation...MJ



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