000
FXUS63 KEAX 270506
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1206 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 251 PM CDT MON JUN 26 2017

A weak surface trough will push through the region this afternoon
increasing the chances for scattered rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms.  No severe weather is expected with these storms as
the instability is just not enough to support stronger updrafts.
Earlier storms sent an outflow boundary through the region
increasing winds from the NE and decreasing temperatures over the KC
metro area. Due to this the high temperatures have been dropped 3-5
degrees into the low to mid 70s to account for the colder airmass,
cloud coverage, and precipitation. This precipitation is expected to
move to the south by the late afternoon leaving the region cloud
free with a light northerly wind overnight. The clear skies will
allow enough nocturnal cooling with temps into the lower to mid 50s
creating the possibility of lower visibilities in fog near sunrise,
especially over areas that got precipitation today.

The pattern will start to shift into a more active pattern Wednesday
as a shortwave exits the Rockies helping to develop a surface low
pressure system over eastern Colorado. A strong LLJ will develop
along the warm sector of the low over the central plains.  This low
and associated LLJ will move east into western Missouri Wednesday
afternoon increasing dewpoints into the lower 70s and temperatures
into the mid to upper 80s with strong southerly winds sustained
around 20mph gusting to 30-35 mph. This LLJ will help to create some
nocturnal convection Tuesday into Wednesday morning over north
central Kansas which will weaken and dissipate in the early morning
over northern Missouri. The extent of this precipitation may have
major impacts to afternoon convection depending on how fast the
cloud coverage dissipates.  A capping inversion will be present but
the added lift from the upper level shortwave and lower level
convergence along with an elevated cold front pushing through in the
afternoon may break this feature. If that occurs there will be
plenty of instability (~3000J/kg of SBCAPE) and shear (0-6km bulk
shear near 40kts) available for severe weather.  With 0-1km shear
values near 20kts and SRH values above 100 all storm modes could be
in play Wednesday afternoon and evening mainly north of the I-70
corridor. This boundary will stall over northern Missouri and
actually lift north as a warm frontal boundary Thursday due to a new
low pressure over western Kansas providing another round of southern
winds and WAA.  This newly develop warm frontal boundary is where
the next round of potential severe storms and heavy rain will focus
Thursday into Friday. Once again there will be plenty of instability
and even stronger shear along the frontal boundary to create
scattered severe weather.  Low level shear is slightly stronger
along this warm frontal boundary so the tornado threat may be
slightly higher during this period if guidance continues with
this solution. Another threat with this boundary will be the
potential for flash flooding as storm motion will be along the
boundary allowing for potential training storms. Currently
northern Missouri is expected to get 2-3 inches of precipitation
through Friday morning. The main threat for severe weather and
flooding appears to be over northern Missouri mainly north of the
Missouri River.

This low pressure and frontal boundary will push to the east with
some residual PoPs remaining over central Missouri Friday morning
before ridging and a drier NW flow pushes into the region Friday
afternoon.  A frontal boundary is expected to form over southern
Missouri keeping most of the precipitation through Saturday south of
our area but any northern push of that feature will increase
precipitation chances over the early holiday weekend. This boundary
will lift back through the area Sunday night into Monday with
precipitation occurring over the area most of Sunday night into
Monday afternoon.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT TUE JUN 27 2017

Clearing skies could allow a few areas of fog/haze to develop
tonight, particularly across areas that received a few tenths of
an inch of rain on Monday. Otherwise VFR conditions for the next
24 hours before weakening storms approach from the west late
Tuesday night.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Barham
Aviation...Hawblitzel