Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 241142
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
542 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 306 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2017

Surface low currently centered near NE MO will continue its
northeastward trek this morning. Behind it, much colder air is
filtering into the forecast area with today`s highs occurring this
morning as a non-diurnal temperature curve sets up for today.
Mid- to upper-level low displaced from the surface low is
currently over central to eastern NE and will graze across
northern MO later today. As it does so, it`ll open up the
opportunity for precip to move through with it. Initially, the
precip is anticipated to fall in liquid form before transitioning
to wintry precip as the colder air takes over. The better chances
for precip will reside along and north of U.S. Hwy 36, although
have mentionable PoPs through two-thirds of the forecast area. Any
snow that does fall today into early tonight will have a tough
time sticking to the rather warm surfaces; up to a half inch of
accumulation for the north is on the generous side. As the upper-
low/trough exits the area tonight, so will the precip, leaving dry
conditions through the first half of the weekend.

From Sunday through the first half of next week, models are
depicting an unsettled period, potentially allowing for a few
rounds of precip to fall. However, as much as the precip is needed
to combat the rather dry grounds, there is a lot of uncertainty in
chances as well as amounts. The GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models
are all struggling to agree with each other during this time
period, translating to it being difficult in nailing down the
finer details. That said, temperatures do appear to remain low
enough early Sunday morning and again overnight Sunday into early
Monday for wintry precip. With highs reaching well into the 40s
and 50s during those days though, no accumulation is expected.

Speaking of temperatures, despite how chilly it may feel as
compared to the last several days, they`ll be close to normal
this weekend for late-February. For next week, temps will again
rise well above normal, although not quite as warm in comparison.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 521 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2017

Ceilings early this morning have been in the MVFR to IFR range and
are expected to continue in these conditions for the next few
hours. While ceilings are anticipated to rise by mid-morning, the
cloud cover will likely stick around through much of the day, with
perhaps some light showers in the area, although the better precip
chances should remain near and north of MCI. As cold air filters
into the region throughout the day, light wintry precip (should
any fall) will become the more dominant type to fall. Look for
gusty NW winds today, slackening later tonight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...lg
Aviation...lg


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