000
FXUS63 KEAX 181056
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
556 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Friday - Sunday:

We`ll start the weekend with warm and dry weather as short-wave
ridging moves across the center of the country. Surface and low-level
flow will be weak today as high pressure slowly moves east. With
anticipated near full insolation, the area should be able to climb to
or just above normal temperatures with highs int he upper 60s to
near 70 degrees. Winds will be stronger on Saturday and from the
south. With the upper ridge moving over the area, thickness values
increase and this should result in high temperatures that are well
above normal. Highs are expected to be in the mid to upper 70s across
the forecast area.

For Sunday, another very mild day is expected but the possibility of
more cloud cover and precipitation later in the day makes the
forecast a bit more complicated. Thicknesses may be slightly lower
but mid-level temperatures may be several degrees warmer as warm
advection persists ahead of a weak upper system. So thinking
temperatures should again top out in the mid to upper 70s by the
time any precipitation moves.

With regards to precipitation chances for Sunday, the main trend has
been to slow things down a bit and keep the better chances to the
west. The system coming from the southwest is rather weak and
doesn`t lead to a strong low-level jet. What little LLJ there is, is
more focused into Nebraska and may just clip far northwestern
Missouri during the overnight hours. That LLJ dissipates during the
day and with no real upper jet pushing the southern wave east, its
progression is slow and thus any forcing for ascent associated with
it will be delayed as well. So during the day time, have kept the
highest PoPs to the western forecast area and removed them for our
eastern tier or two of counties.

Better precipitation chances will come during the overnight as the
upper trough moves overhead. But again, this entire system looks
rather weak with little jet energy associated with it. So the best
chances will closely tied to the weak surface/low-level boundary
moving into/through the area.

Monday - Friday:

This period of time looks to become more active, especially towards
the mid to late week time frame. A deep and nearly cutoff low will
develop over the western CONUS with persistent southerly flow
bringing increased moisture into the region. Through the middle of
the week this should mainly set up warm advection, mostly nocturnal
convection as the LLJ really intensifies over the Plains. However,
by Thursday into Friday, that trough begins to eject across the
Plains with widespread convection becoming more likely. But, there
are significant timing and structure issues between the GEFS, GFS
and ECMWF. The ECMWF is the farthest east and also indicates a
negative tilt and thus more dynamic system. The GFS is about a day
behind and more neutral to positively tilted. The GEFS mean is
somewhere in between from Thursday into Friday but eventually shows
better agreement to the GFS by the very end of the week. Given the
uncertainties, confidence is not especially high at this point time
for any particular solution.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 556 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Light winds associated with an area of high pressure centered over
the region as well as what is likely smoke from Flint Hills burning
has led to light fog/ haze over western Missouri and eastern Kansas.
Isolated dense fog is possible in northern to northeastern Missouri,
mainly sheltered and cold air drainage areas. Conditions at the
terminals are still expected to be VFR. STJ my briefly dip into MVFR
this morning but this should soon dissipate within several hours of
sunrise.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB