000
FXUS63 KEAX 051711
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1111 AM CST Wed Mar 5 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 AM  CST WED MAR 5 2014

The forecast continues to trend towards a spell of more "good" days,
than "bad" days. Have made several adjustments, mainly to
temperatures, through the 7 day forecast.  In the shortterm however,
we`re continuing to watch a disjointed wave cross the Rockies. Water
vapor imagery indicates the strongest portion of this wave had dug
further south than models initially indicated, moving into western
Texas this morning.  There remains a second piece of energy further
north across Colorado, and it`s this wave of energy that could bring
light precipitation to the area later today.

At the surface, a surface stationary front continues to slope
through northern Missouri and just north of St. Louis. Weak
frontogenesis has produced a few scattered echoes north of the MO
border overnight, in a narrow corridor of mid-level moisture. Short
term models continue to indicate the secondary Colorado wave will
slide eastward later today.  This wave will track east slower than
models indicated yesterday, with the narrow moisture axis over NE/IA
tracking SE this afternoon.  Cross sections indicate a layer of weak
frontogensis moving through the CWA, but with such a narrow,
stretched out corridor of moisture, precipitation should really be
limited. HRRR/RAP suggest that the band of precipitation could be as
narrow as 20 miles wide. Have lowered PoPs today, and reduced QPF
further. The other issue today is regarding temperatures.  Mid-level
clouds won`t stream eastward as quickly as thought, with the areas
south of the stationary boundary having the potential to warm
substantially now that snow is melted.  RAP/HRRR which did a good
job Monday, indicate low to even middle 40s in areas along and south
of the MO river with falling mid-aftn temps.

Thursday:  A decent warmup is in store for the area as we
approach the weekend. By Thursday, shortwave ridging will pass
through the area with a return of southerly winds. Soundings suggest
readings will likely end up in the mid 40s for most.

Friday: The next shortwave to pass through the CONUS has showed a
slowing trend in the latest guidance.  By Friday morning and
elongated surface front will stretch from the Texas panhandle to
Wisconsin. A deep southwesterly fetch is expected to develop ahead
of this trough with a thermal ridge axis aligning itself along and
ahead of this surface boundary by Friday afternoon. While we won`t
tap into the +9 to +11C air at 850 mb, the combination of mixing and
compressional heating ahead of this front could send temperatures
near the 60 degree mark for some.  Colder air will finally begin to
sink into the region late on Friday and during Friday night. A mixed
bag of precipitation will be possible Friday night as the upper
trough passes.  QPF should remain light, but minor snow accumulations
will be possible in northern Missouri.

Saturday-Sunday: Drier air will advect into the region quickly on
Saturday and any ongoing precipitation should have ended.  Have
lowered PoPs for Saturday, which could be lowered further in future
forecasts.  Saturday`s highs will again fall into the upper 30s for
most areas. The good news is that increasing mid-level ridging over
the Central CONUS will spell a warmer forecast as we head into next
week.  By Sunday, once high pressure moves into the Ohio river
valley region winds will turn to the southwest and warmer low-level
air will spill eastward.  The initial warmup on Sunday, given breezy
southerly winds should result in readings in the 50s.

Monday-Tuesday:  The warmest day of the forecast will fall on
Monday.  Strong westerly low-level flow will push 850 mb temps
upwards of 10 to 14C eastward.  Once warm westerly downslope flow
develops Monday morning, temperatures have the potential to climb
into the 60s over a wide area. Point soundings indicate that if we
can maximize mixing and reach the +13C temperatures aloft, a 70 degree
reading could be possible. Have bumped up temperatures over much of
the area, in line with the GFS/EC ensembles. We`ll have a slight
cooldown on Tuesday as a weak front enters the area, but temperatures
should remain above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1111 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

A band of snow/mixed precipitation over northern Missouri will slowly
slide south through the afternoon. But in doing so should also begin
to dissipate as the main upper-level support weakens. So it`s
uncertain whether this will move into the Kansas City terminals at
all. And besides, temperatures have warmed into the upper 30s and
lower 40s so the impact will be minimal anyway with just a light
rain/possible snow mix with temperates too warm to accumulate
anything. The bigger impact should be from MVFR ceilings associated
with the band and moving in behind the area of precipitation. For now
it looks like these ceiling s will be above fuel alternate status.
The MVFR ceilings should lift to IFR late tonight. Winds will be
light throughout the forecast with northeasterly winds becoming
easterly tonight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dux
AVIATION...CDB