Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 020533
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1233 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 219 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A little wet and cloudy along the Iowa border with comparatively
nice conditions farther south across east central Kansas into
central Missouri has been the prevailing pattern for today. However,
the upper level shortwave trough is sliding northeast out of Iowa
this afternoon has induced enough of a return flow on the backside
that low clouds and a few showers are now moving through northern
Missouri. Areas south of the Missouri River where able to bound in
the 60s, but cloud cover and northerly winds farther north have kept
conditions cooler and damper.

Rest of the afternoon through Monday...cool, cloud, and likely
damp,conditions will prevail. While the shortwave in Iowa is moving
away this afternoon, a follow on shortwave trough is expected to
quickly exit the Desert Southwest late tonight, ejecting along a
slightly more southern track than the leading shortwave moving
through Iowa. Ultimately, this should keep the lower clouds and
potential for scattered showers persisting across the region
overnight and through the day Monday as a result. Have tossed in
chance POPs for late Monday morning and the afternoon hours as the
shortwave trough ejects into and through the Southern and Central
Plains. This could make for a soupy day, with low clouds, drizzle
and scattered showers dominating. However, with the exiting of the
secondary shortwave that night, warmer temperatures and less cloudy
skies will prevail in the days afterwards.

Tuesday on into the next weekend...will be dominated by dry weather
and nice temperatures. With the secondary shortwave exiting the
region Monday night into Tuesday the region will quickly get
dominated by a large amplitude ridge sandwiched between two large
cutoff circulations; one over the east coast with the other over the
Great Basin. Temperatures under the ridge will warm into the 70s
with lows in the 50s. Otherwise, given the pattern set up later in
the work week, expect that sometime late in the weekend --but more
likely early next work week-- the Great Basin trough will start
ejecting through the Plains and likely result in our next widespread
chance for storms in the region.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

Drier air slowly working into the region early this morning which is
resulting in a categorical increase back to VFR at most forecast
locations. For now...have decided to play the optimistic card and
currently have a mostly VFR fcst through roughly 14z at all
locations. After this time...daytime heating and the arrival of the
next weather system will result in a brief period if MVFR cigs before
improving by the 18z time frame. As this feature arrives...a brief
shwr or two will be possible at all locations with activity likely
coming to an end by 00z. Winds to remain from the northwest between
5-10 kts.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...32



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