Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 212316
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
616 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 417 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Tonight - Thursday:

This period will bring an end to our 8+ day dry spell. Weak mid
level warm air advection could generate some sprinkles very late
tonight and Wednesday morning. Much better rain chances arrive late
Wednesday night.

Upper ridge axis from MN through east TX will translate eastward
while progressive shortwave over the intermountain region lifts
northeast and through the Northern Plains/Upper MS Valley. Surface
ridge will give way to a gradual shift to a southerly flow by
Wednesday night. Increasing moist warm air advection aided by a
disorganized disturbance now over West TX will combine to generate a
band of convection which will translate from west to east across the
CWA beginning late Wednesday night and ending Thursday afternoon.
Weak elevated instability, MUCAPES < 400J/kg, will likely support a
few embedded thunderstorms.

A weak frontal boundary will accompany the convection but will mark
mark nothing more than a wind shift from south to southwest.
Thursday temperatures will be defined by amount of residual cloud
cover and expect slightly warmer than average temperatures.

Friday - Sunday:

The upper ridge will quickly rebuild from the Rockies into the
Plains with a corresponding influx of warmer h8 temperatures of +14C
to +18C threatening to send max temperatures to 80 over western MO.
See no chance of precipitation during this period.

Monday - Tuesday:

Medium range models are on the same track for the start of next week
with a well-defined upper trough tracking east through the Plains
and MS Valley. Model trends seem reasonable enough to raise PoPs.
This system will have a stronger cold front associated with it and
the post frontal airmass will likely support below average
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 612 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Expecting VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Winds should stay
high enough through the night to preclude much in the way of fog
development. Some low level clouds will work their way into the area
during the early morning hours. This will likely create a broken or
overcast deck around 4000 to 5000 feet. Some isolated to scattered
light showers could form within this deck, so have gone with a VCSH
group for KSTJ, where the better chance for rain appears. The KC
metro terminals might see a few sprinkles, so held off for now on
mention of precip, but will readdress perhaps a VCSH group on the 06z
issuance.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Leighton






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