Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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248
FXUS63 KEAX 261142
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
642 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 313 AM CDT MON JUN 26 2017

Scattered shwrs beginning to develop across east-central Kansas
this morning is modest isentropic ascent and weak frontogenesis
interact with an area of low-level moisture convergence. So far
this activity has been in shwr form, and considering the lack of
any appreciable instability this morning per latest SPC meso page,
we expect this trend to continue through sunrise. Further to our
north, precip developing nicely across portions of Iowa and
Nebraska as the next inbound shortwave dives southeast towards our
area. As a result, expect precip to gradually expand in coverage
as the wave inches closer to our region, and have increased pops
up along the Iowa border this morning to account for this
development. Later today, fcst models continue to show additional
activity developing across northern Missouri as a weak surface
boundary starts moving into the region from the north. Inspection
of several fcst soundings again yields very weak instability this
afternoon with MLCAPE values generally less than 800 Joules. As
such, expect any developing storm activity along this feature to
remain below severe thresholds with activity gradually coming to
an end this evening from north to south. Afternoon highs today
will remain below normal, with mid & upper 70s expected. It
shouldn`t be a washout but shwrs/isolated storms will definitely
be on the radar through a good portion of the day.

High pressure to temporarily build south into our region tonight
with dry conditions expected through much of Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Southerly winds will begin to become re-established later
in the day on Tuesday as high pressure begins sliding off to our
east and pressure falls occur across the central and northern High
Plains. As a result, Tuesday`s highs will be a few degrees warmer
than today`s, with highs topping out in the lower 80s.

Big changes on the way by Wednesday as a very unsettled weather
pattern develops over the Nation`s midsection. Main culprit
continues to be a strong ridge of high pressure across the north-
central Atlantic, which will lead to a general blocking pattern
upstream across North America. As this occurs, a trough of low
pressure is expected to descend into southern Canada & the
Northern Plains, with this feature having little chance for
eastward progression until the end of the work week. Meanwhile
closer to the surface, western Atlantic high pressure combined
with a trough of low pressure across the Great Plains will lead to
healthy return flow up through the upper Miss Rvr Vly. Low/mid 70
degree dewpoints combined with passing shortwaves and eventually
a stalled frontal boundary will lead to several rounds of showers
and storms through the end of the week, with the heavy rain threat
looking more ominous with each passing model run. By week`s end,
several locations could be looking at rainfall totals in excess of
2-4 inches, especially across far northern Missouri.

Upper low is finally able to start moving east later in the day
on Friday which should drag a trialing cold front through our
area. This will result in return to dry weather for through
Saturday, with rain chances again increasing by Sunday as another
front stalls across our region.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 641 AM CDT MON JUN 26 2017

A busy weather day is expected across the region as a disturbance
and associated cold front lead to scattered shwrs and isolated
storms. Activity currently up along the Iowa border is forecast to
settle to the southeast with time, likely missing area forecast
sites. Additional activity is expected to track southeast from
south-central Nebraska later this morning, with best timing
suggesting possible impacts as early as 16-17 at STJ, with steady
southward progression expected at remaining KC area terminals
through the early to mid afternoon. With any storms that impact
airfields, short duration reductions to MVFR or IFR visibilities
will be possible. Activity should quickly clear by late
afternoon/early evening from north to south with dry conditions
expected through the overnight. The only other concern going
forward will be for possible fog development at STJ after 6z,
however confidence this far out remains too low for a mention at
this time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...32



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