National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KEAX 162350
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
650 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 306 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

The biggest challenge for this portion of the forecast deals with
placement/track of possible MCS this evening and particularly
overnight.

Ongoing and increasing convection in western Nebraska and South
Dakota may be the beginnings of a possible MCS that is then expected
to track to the southeast into central Kansas later this evening and
southeastern Kansas/northern Oklahoma/southwestern Missouri
overnight. There is a fair amount of instability aloft across
northwestern Missouri with greater amounts over Kansas and southern
Missouri. This trend should persist as we`ve been clouded over
throughout the day with the weak surface front straddled across the
area. The potential convective system should track along and south
of the boundary and this generally corresponds to the axis of
greatest moisture from 925 to 850 mb. With the notion that the
strongest convection would track to the west and eventually south of
the forecast area, possibly clipping west central Missouri and
eastern Kansas, have placed the highest POPs from our far west
through our south through the night. Depending on how expansive any
precipitation shield is with the associated convective system, POPs
may need to be spread further north but given the uncertainties with
the timing and track have just kept the best chances west and
south. The threat of severe weather looks rather low at this time
given the anticipated track of the MCS but parts of west central
Missouri and eastern Kansas, which could see the eastern edge of the
strongest storms, could see strong wind gusts.

The decaying remnants of the MCS may linger in our southern zones
through much of the day Monday. The biggest impact of this seems to
be its affect on temperatures. Have trimmed temperatures slightly
across the area with the greatest trimming in our south where
precipitation cloud cover would linger the longest.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

Monday night-Wednesday: A minor shortwave will pass through the
Upper Midwest Monday night pushing a surface front southwest through
the area.  The influence of high pressure behind this front over the
Great Lakes should keep most of Tuesday and Wednesday dry with near
to slightly below normal temperatures.   There should be ample cloud
cover both days as the 850 mb ridge axis remains overhead.

Wednesday night-Thursday: Model guidance indicates that shortwave
energy will eject northeast out of the Southwestern CONUS Wednesday
night, inducing warm advection thunderstorms over much of the
mid/lower Missouri River valley on Thursday.  This activity will
diminish through the day on Thursday as mid-level height rise and a
stout cap advects into the region.

Friday-Sunday:  Models are beginning to advertise a warmup into the
90s for much of next weekend as the low-level thermal ridge moves
overhead.  Southwesterly surface winds and 850 temps from 22C to 24C
would promote above normal temperatures.  Several shortwaves will
likely eject out of the Southwest and move across the ridge axis,
while the highest potential for convection remains north of the CWA
wouldn`t discount some deviation southward.  Still a very uncertain
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 650 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

VFR conditions are currently expected for the entirety of the this
TAF cycle. What ceilings will be out there should remain high enough
to remain clear of aviation concerns. However, the one caveat will be
early Monday morning as a progressive line of storms slides across
Kansas. At this time thoughts are that the line of storms will pass
south and west of the terminals between 07Z and 15Z Monday morning,
but this will require careful watching overnight. Otherwise, look for
our southeast wind to veer to the southwest for Monday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...Dux
AVIATION...Cutter