Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 141957

257 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2014

Issued at 257 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

Already seeing an expanding area of clouds and a few showers across
parts of NE and northern KS this afternoon where warm air advection
is increasing. While these showers may weaken later this evening, a
more solid area of rain and a few thunderstorms should expand and
push into northern parts of KS and MO late tonight into Monday
morning as WAA becomes enhanced by a developing low-level jet. Feed
of higher theta-e air within the jet will also bring some elevated
instability to the area late tonight and Monday morning, with some
models now showing MUCAPE values as high as 1000 to 2000 J/kg. Shear
and low-level forcing do not appear particularly favorable for strong
or organized storms, but could still see a few storms capable of
producing brief heavy rain through late Monday morning.

A cold front will slide in from the northwest through the day Monday
and bring a gradual drying trend through late afternoon. Airmass
behind the front won`t be quite as cold as the one that gave record
lows Saturday morning, but will still bring temperatures 10 to 15
degrees below normal with lows in the middle and upper 40s Monday
night. This could also yield to areas of fog toward sunrise Tuesday
similar to what happened Saturday morning.

Tuesday will be the coolest day of the week with post-frontal
temperatures in the upper 60s to near 70. A steady warming trend will
then set in after this point with highs reaching the upper 70s and
lower 80s by Friday. Could see a few showers or thunderstorms during
this warm air advection pattern, particularly Wednesday afternoon and
evening. With dry high pressure dominating the Great Lakes and Mid
Mississippi Valley through this time, the better chances for any rain
will be across far western Missouri and westward into Kansas. Better
chances for more widespread rain will arrive next weekend with the
arrival of another cold front.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

Quiet conditions next 12 hours with just a few stratocumulus around
8000 feet near and south of the Missouri River. Rain and a few
thunderstorms expected late tonight into Monday morning especially
near and north of the KC-Kirksville corridor. Storms not expected to
pose any significant wind hazards.




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