000
FXUS63 KEAX 052334
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
534 PM CST Wed Mar 5 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014

This Afternoon - Tonight:

An area of frontogenesis will continue to weaken through the late
afternoon/evening with the associated area of light precipitation
weakening in response. As this decaying area advances southward it
will encounter warmer air as temperatures climbed into the middle
40s across the southern half of the forecast area. So even if some
light precipitation falls, it should be in mostly liquid form for
the southern half of the forecast area this evening with no
accumulation expected. Any lingering precipitation that survives
further south is expected to dissipate by midnight with overnight
lows falling into the teens and 20s.

Thursday - Friday:

Quiet weather is expected through this period of time with shortwave
ridging moving across the region. This will allow for thicknesses to
increase and with low-level winds out of the south to southwest we
should be able to climb into the mid/upper 40s Thursday and upper
40s to upper 50s on Friday.

Friday Night - Saturday:

The upper-level shortwave ridging will be replaced with a broad,
positively tilted trough. This troughing will allow for a chance of
rain and snow across the area as it elongates and eventually shears
out south of the region. Fortunately, we are starting out much warmer
and there is not a push of very cold air behind the system. This will
lead to some light snow mixed with rain overnight with this
transitioning to rain during the day as temperatures warm. Also,
with the weak nature of the trough and limited forcing, precipitation
looks rather light with only several hundredths to a tenth of an inch
expected through the entire event.

Sunday - Tuesday:

The upper ridge over the eastern Pacific and West Coast will begin
to broaden out as it 1) gets undercut by the shearing trough from
Saturday and 2) has its western edges pinched by a trough building
into the eastern Pacific. This will allow the ridge to expand
eastward through the central portions of the CONUS with a subsequent
taste of spring ensuing. Temperatures will be near to above normal on
Sunday, with highs generally in the lower to middle 50s. But Monday
will be much warmer, with temperatures in the upper 60s and possibly
approaching 70 in our southwestern zones. These well above normal
temperatures will be short-lived as a weak front should move through
the area Tuesday, knocking temperatures back to more seasonal levels.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 534 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014

Light snow currently falling at STJ and MCI with light rain/snow at
MKC. Snow will come to an end by the valid TAF time with snow
continuing through 01Z and MCI with reduced vsbys to 2SM. MKC will
continue to see a mix of rain and snow at the terminal through 02Z
with vsbys reduced to 5SM. Model bufr sounding as well as GFS LAMP
and NAM MOS guidance are indicating that MVFR cigs will persist
through mid morning tomorrow with the potential for vsbys to be
reduced to 5SM-6SM with haze or light fog. Otherwise...after 15Z
conds will become VFR with just scattered high cirrus. Winds will be
out of the NNE tonight between 5-10kts gradually veering the south by
tomorrow morning but remaining between 5-10kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...73