000
FXUS63 KEAX 241711
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1211 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 310 AM CDT MON JUL 24 2017

A relatively cooler and noticeably drier air mass is moving into the
region currently, setting the stage for a relatively pleasant
start to the work week. Highs today will be close to normal with
temperatures in upper 80s to near 90 degrees. But dewpoints in the
middle 60s, vs the middle to upper 70s from the past week, will
help conditions feel more comfortable. This more comfortable air
mass won`t last long though. By Tuesday, the upper ridge expands
back east and low level flow will turn back to a southerly
direction. This will help to advect 70+ degree dewpoints back into
the region which will undoubtedly be aided by the recent rainfall
in parts of the area. So as highs climb back into the low to mid
90s and dewpoints climb into the lower 70s, heat indices will
climb back to around 100.

Wednesday is a little trickier of a forecast. It has the
potential to be equally as hot as Tuesday but with higher dewpoints
making it feel even hotter. However, there is potential for showers
and storms during the day which would keep temperatures in check.
The precipitation chances are a result of upper level shortwave
trough approaching the area from the northwest and strong low level
flow ahead of the trough. The lift associated with the trough may be
enough to get precipitation going, especially across northern MO. If
precipitation and cloud cover is more widespread, temperatures will
need to be adjusted downward. But for now, it looks like the
southern half of the forecast area will see highs in the low mid
90s. Add in dewpoints in the middle 70s during the afternoon and
heat indices could climb as high as 105. Fortunately, the upper
shortwave trough will help push a cold front through the area and
the rest of the week looks cooler with drier dewpoints. The trade
off though is that there will likely be storms along/ahead of the
front as it`s moving through Wednesday evening and overnight. Several
thousand J/kg of CAPE and decent shear suggest the potential for
strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms. Steep low level lapse
rates coupled with high theta-e depressions suggest a good
potential for strong to damaging winds.

For Thursday through Sunday, temperatures will return to seasonal
levels with drier air settling over the area. Highs should be in the
middle to upper 80s through Sunday with dewpoints falling into the
low to mid 60s Friday through Sunday.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT MON JUL 24 2017

Surface high pressure to the northeast will maintain dry
conditions through the forecast period. Easterly winds will veer
slightly Tuesday morning as high pressure pushes eastward. Shallow
fog may develop over the terminal sites early Tuesday morning,
though increasing surface winds during this time may minimize this
to some extent.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...Welsh