


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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040 FXUS63 KEAX 101953 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 253 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Warm/hot remainder of today and Friday, cooler into weekend. - Fri: High temps low-mid 90s, Heat Index mid 90s - low 100s - Weekend: Cool/cold front brings highs down into 80s - Early Next Week: Temps warm back into upper 80s/low 90s * Multiple chances for storms thru Saturday - Tonight/Friday AM: Mainly NW/N Missouri, low severe threat for wind - Friday PM/Evening: Strong/severe possible, hail and wind main threats - Saturday: Lingering shower and storm activity, strong/severe threat not anticipated && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 253 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Forecast confidence continues to be a mixed bag with the ongoing/continued, somewhat bust prone, large scale flow pattern over the region. As such, confidence in details degrade rapidly with each round of showers/storms potentially carrying large ramifications for subsequent round(s). So, bear with this discussion as the most likely scenario(s) attempt to be laid out... Remnant/decaying MCS this morning did tend to outperform majority, if not all, CAM guidance with regards to how far southward it would progress, reaching the fringes of the KC metro/I-70 corridor before rapidly completing its decay. Fortunately, it did not/has not carried much in the way of ramifications this afternoon and evening as it lacked any substantial outflow boundary to lay up over the region. This has resulted majority clear skies today and temperatures to rising into the upper 80s/lower 90s. Do anticipate quite conditions into/through the evening as well with broader forcing remaining displaced westward and a thermal cap in place that appears poised to hold. CAM guidance has also suggested this in most recent runs, and do not see a reason to deviate from that at this point in time, at least through about midnight LT. While quiet locally this evening, portions of Nebraska/South Dakota/Iowa are expected to see robust convection develop in the vicinity of a warm front draped in/around that tri-state area. Without going into those details, environment is conducive all hazards initially and is expected to congeal into an MCS that may be capable of very strong/severe winds. Wind profiles/general steering flow and initial mid-level shortwave progression will take bulk of the activity due eastward across Iowa. The item of note here is that there are some suggestions that cold pool/outflow generation may work southward and be able to initiate convection into the CWA. 12z CAM guidance and HRRR runs through the day have tended decay activity right along/near the Iowa-Missouri border. Given recent history and CAM tendencies, am skeptical of this solution. Adding to the skepticism, thermal profiles appear conducive for strong cold pool generation and low level flow (surface through LLJ/850mb-ish) will be oriented toward/perpendicular to any outflows approaching from the north. Do not expect severe potential with this potential progression into the CWA overnight, given broader lack of supportive deep layer flow and forcing, but does at least appear prudent to have PoPs in an otherwise predominantly dry NBM and other CAM guidance. Have thusly coordinated with TOP/OAX/DMX to allow for a PoPs progression into Missouri overnight around/after 06z, gradually diminishing through the overnight and early morning hours. Will casually note evening storm activity over western/central Kansas too will drift eastward, but good consensus in various guidance in the frontal boundary and associated mid-level shortwave not making substantial progress eastward, allowing convection to move out ahead of it and into a much less favorable environment for sustained activity. Looking into Friday daytime, these details will hinge to at least some degree on how above mentioned/overnight convection behaves. Including not just whether it does get into the CWA, but how far and how strong outflows/cold pools area. This would effectively shunt the warm front southward out of Iowa and could call into question how far northward front may return during the daytime. That said, prevailing solution at the moment remains for warm front to work back into southern/central Iowa as secondary shortwave enhances existing High Plains cyclogenesis and begins to spread influence eastward. Within the warm sector, do expect low level flow to see increased moisture advection and mostly clear skies, allowing strong destabilization potential. Deep layer wind/shear profiles should improve a bit, but largely remain marginal before cold frontal passage later Friday evening. Deeper lift too may remain displaced far enough westward to keep cap from breaking and prevent any open warm sector convection. So, this points toward the warm front and cold fronts for strong/severe potential. Revisiting the warm front, should a strong overnight cold pool prevail, it is not out of the question to see warm front end up over northern Missouri and allow for convection during/through the afternoon and an increasing strong/severe risk as instability increases. This too would introduce all hazards risk potential. Do not think that is the prevailing solution, as the increasing surface cyclogenesis may be enough to push warm front back into Iowa regardless. Later in the evening, storms are widely expected in the vicinity of the cold frontal passage. Frontal and initiation timing will dictate primary hazard risks. Meaning, initiation west of the CWA may limit hazards to wind and heavy rain as storms are expected to congeal within a shear/mean wind orientation more parallel to the front versus all hazards potential with initiation within the CWA potentially allowing initially isolated convection to organize as deep layer shear increase >25-30 kts. A noted sneaky threat may be flood potential with HREF and other extend CAM guidance all depicting pockets/areas 2-4"+ with activity associated near/along the cold front. This would be attributed to slow passage of this boundary, PWats increasing >1.75", and training potential near/along the front. Activity to gradually ease through the night/overnight. Days 2 SPC Slight and WPC Slight ERO are both in place over the area. Into Saturday, front slowly sags through the area as parent forcing drifts E/NE. A reinforcing push associated with a larger northern stream shortwave trough will finish frontal push through the area as an associated surface high builds in behind. This means scattered shower/non-severe thunderstorm activity will continue across portions of the area as the frontal boundary sags. Expect temperatures to fall back into the lower-mid 80s in most cases, continuing into Sunday, but drier by that point. Large scale pattern continues to lack dominant large scale features over the area, yielding additional shortwave passage opportunities into middle of next week, albeit with low confidence in details. Temperatures will drift back warmer, into the upper 80s/lower 90s, but may see a more significant cold down mid-late week as synoptic guidance shows fair confidence in a deeper longwave trough moving through the region. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Generally quiet/VFR two-liners for this TAF issuance for the trio of KC metro sites. KSTJ too is a two liner, but do have a PRBO30 for possible decaying MCS overnight/early Friday morning. Confidence wanes southward, resulting in the null mentions for KC metro sites. Otherwise, gusty southerly winds at times today with gusts into the lower 20kts, easing around/after sunset. Southerly winds remain through overnight, around/less than 10kts. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Curtis AVIATION...Curtis