000
FXUS63 KEAX 152112
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
412 PM CDT Wed May 15 2013

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 409 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

Afternoon satellite imagery shows a large cutoff trough moving
through the Southern Plains. Warm air advection ahead of the trough
continues to pump moisture north into Missouri, but convergence
along the frontal boundary wallowing across northern Missouri is
poor at best, and without any kind of triggering disturbance aloft,
capping across the region has proved too robust for what instability
is out there this afternoon. This evening the slightly closer
proximity of the trough might help with assent up and across the
boundary in northern Missouri, though with shear values rather low --
0-6KM 10 to 20 knots -- any storms that do get going will be
disorganized and sub-severe in nature. Any activity overnight might
be able to linger into the daylight hours of Thursday as the frontal
boundary slowly lifts into Iowa. However, as Thursday grows old, the
slow moving trough across the Southern Plains will still be making
its presents felt as diurnal heating keeps some instability across
the region. Potential for storms looks best across southern and into
eastern Missouri, and to our north in Iowa --near the frontal
boundary--, but might leave our area stuck in between. Have continued
to trim POPs from the afternoon hours of Thursday as a result, simply
limiting chance POPs to the eastern and southern border areas of the
forecast region for Thursday afternoon.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 409 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

Next chance for storms arrives late in the weekend as a large trough
digs into the western CONUS and begins to shift east into the Plains.
Medium range models continue to advertise this trough bringing these
storms by Sunday afternoon. The parent trough to all this activity
wont be moving through the Plains States very fast as it develops
into something akin to a Rex Block as advertised by some models. This
could keep stormy weather in the vicinity of eastern Kansas and
Missouri into Tuesday of next week, though the strongest storms
--those with the best potential for severe weather-- look to be
limited to Sunday afternoon and evening owing to the decent
instability in the warm sector ahead of the cold front that will
sweep through Monday. And, speaking of cold fronts, once again we
might find our region with below normal temperatures in the wake of
the front Tuesday and Wednesday, though lows in the 50s are all that
are expected at this time.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

VFR conditions will prevail through the daylight and evening hours.
However, continue to carry a low confidence forecast for VCTS at the
terminals as some showers or thunderstorms might develop across far
northern Missouri this evening near a stalled front. Early Thursday morning
visibilities might drop in the MVFR category as moisture continues to
pool south of the stalled front. Otherwise, expect generally
southerly winds at less than 12 knots over the next 24 hours.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cutter
LONG TERM...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter