Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 250454
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1154 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 338 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

Tonight - Monday:

An extensive area of mid thick mid level cloud cover with embedded
light showers/sprinkles will continue to spread east across northern
MO with increasing high-based mid level clouds advancing through
west central MO. Lacking a push from the north and a hot and steamy
airmass to the south a weak cold front has made little progress
today. The boundary lies between MCI and STJ and extends through the
northeast corner of the CWA and to the west southwest into central
KS. A very warm elevated layer has kept convection in check. Believe
we have a small window between 23z and 02z for surface based
convection to form along the front. Should this activity fail to
develop we may have to wait until after midnight for any convective
activity to move in from the west. Have lowered PoPs some due to
closing window for surface based convection as well as the possible
delay until after midnight.

Tuesday through Sunday:

Compared to this past week next week continues to look rather
unsettled with multiple periods of precipitation chances after
Tuesday night. As the broad upper high reforms/retrogrades westward
into the intermountain region the flow becomes increasingly
dominated by northwesterly winds with embedded shortwaves/impulses
dropping southeast and through the Upper MS and mid MO River
Valleys. A nebulous surface pattern will exist with high pressure
shifting east and allowing a constant flow of moisture northward.
So, lacking timing consistency and surface boundaries am forced to
broadbrush PoPs throughout the forecast. Also favor going with
seasonal temperatures which is handled by the models.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist in the
vicinity of Kansas city and southward through the first few hours of
the forecast, until a slightly drier airmass moves in pushing the
activity to the south. Temporary IFR restrictions are possible
within a storm and at this time have carried a TSRA mention in the
KIXD forecast with storms blossoming over eastern KS. Once the
activity pushes south later in the night, VFR conditions are
expected through the remainder of the forecast.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...MJ
Aviation...CDB



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