Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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178
FXUS63 KEAX 242323
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
523 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 233 PM CST FRI FEB 24 2017

An area of light snow, associated with the main upper shortwave
trough and strong vorticity advection, will continue to push east
through the afternoon and evening. Amounts with this feature should
be light as the system continues to be stretched out and overall
is weakening. Amounts will likely be less than in an inch across
far northern Missouri and generally less half an inch. Late
tonight, precipitation will come to an end as subsidence on the
back side of the upper wave.

The upper pattern across the CONUS will become more zonal over the
weekend and as a result there should be several quick-hitting
shortwaves move through, leading to several chances for
precipitation. The first chance looks to be Sunday as a subtle
shortwave trough moves through the area. Temperatures initially
will support light snow, mainly south of I-70, but temperatures
will warm above freezing by midday, changing any snow to rain.
Another subtle wave will move through Monday but temperatures with
this system look warmer so for now just expecting light rain
across the area. The emphasis for both of these systems is just a
chance for light precipitation.

For mid to late next week, quiet weather is expected with a trend
back to above normal temperatures. The upper flow will be split
across the region with the subtropical jet to our south and the
polar jet to north, combining over the East Coast/western
Atlantic. Given the pattern, it looks fairly quiet. Temperatures
should be able to climb into the mid/upper 50s through the end of
the week with southwesterly low level flow.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 523 PM CST FRI FEB 24 2017

Snow showers will continue to slide southeast across all TAF sites
this evening, then drier midlevel air will gradually erode snow
from west to east over the next several hours. Ceilings will also
lift as snow departs, leaving behind midlevel stratus and then a
transition to clearing skies after 06z. Winds will remain out of
the northwest overnight, remaining greater than 12 kts with
occasional gusts to 20 kts this evening, then beginning to
diminish by early Saturday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...Laflin



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