Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 181136
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
636 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Today/Tonight: As of this morning, a line of thunderstorms stretch
from Salina KS to Joplin MO, with a gradual southern drift away from
the CWA. Only a slight chance of precipitation is expected for the
remainder of the morning hours over far southwest sections of the
forecast area, where an isolated shower or stratiform blowoff could
drift into the area. Otherwise, the focus has been on an expansive
area of low stratus developing over the area. In addition, areas of
fog have developed with many locations between 1 to 3 miles. The
increase in stratus along with the cirrus canopy from upstream
convection have seemingly helped temporarily mitigate widespread
dense fog from forming. There is also a slow advection of drier air
upon easterly winds, but the temperatures have cooled at nearly the
same rate. At this time, expect some areas to experience patchy
dense fog less than one-half mile prior to 14Z, especially in
low-lying areas, but uncertainty remains how much more widespread
dense fog will develop. Will continue to closely monitor dense fog
trends. Otherwise, low clouds may hold through at least early
afternoon, keeping temperatures initially slow to rise, eventually
reaching the lower to middle 70s by late afternoon. Dry conditions
will prevail through the afternoon into the early evening. The
western portion of the stationary front to our southwest over SC KS
will begin to retreat northward tonight, with increasing warm air
advection and isentropic ascent focused over the western portions of
the CWA overnight. Persistence in the pattern would suggest a third
night of convection north of the stationary front, and models also
hint at a similar scenario. Have inserted thunderstorm chances over
the western quarter of the CWA tonight. Up to 1500 J/KG of MUCAPE
may reside over this area, but with marginal deep layer shear, only
a couple strong storms may be possible early in the lifespan of
storms.

Friday/Friday Night: Upper level ridging will shift into the central
CONUS. A long clockwise-curved sfc-H85 trajectory will advect deeper
moisture into the region, with surface dewpoints returning to the
upper 60s. Low clouds may persist through late morning before deeper
mixing commences, with a few scattered thunderstorms remaining north
of Interstate 70 before noon. Otherwise, no precipitation is
expected during the afternoon or evening hours. Afternoon high
temperatures will be notably warmer in the upper 70s to middle 80s,
with lows remaining in the middle to upper 60s.

Saturday: The upper pattern will feature a closed low developing
over southern California, with a well-defined vort max from the
remnants of the tropical system Odile heading northeast from the
Desert Southwest. To the north, a strong shortwave trough will
quickly dive towards the Great Lakes states and begin to amplify
into a large trough over the eastern CONUS. The model trends have
continued to look less impressive for widespread heavy rainfall for
the CWA, although chances of rain certainly look warranted. Models
have been slower with the arrival of Odile`s remains, and tend to
shift the track further south and keep it over the Southern Plains.
This places the CWA to the south of the strongest ascent from the
upper trough and to the northeast of the strongest influence of
Odile, greatly reducing confidence for widespread heavy rains. The
majority of the precipitation may be focused along the frontal
slope, which is expected to enter northern Missouri by Saturday
afternoon. To the south of the front, precipitation is more
uncertain until the front moves southward. With this in mind, have
increased temperatures, with highs in the lower to middle 80s
Saturday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Long advertised cold front to be working south through the area at
the start of the fcst period. This should allow scattered shwrs and
storms through early Sunday morning with dry weather then
anticipated through the remainder of the weekend into early next
week with the arrival of high pressure. A fairly cool airmass
should accompany this feature with some long range models
advertising highs in the upper 60s early next week. Beyond
this...west coast upper low to slowly track east into the Plains by
midweek...with shwr chances increasing across the western zones late
Wednesday into Thursday. Temps should begin to moderate during this
time as southerly flow returns in advance of aforementioned west
coast system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 630 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Complex short-term forecast with a range of MVFR to LIFR conditions.
Expect IFR to LIFR ceilings, with occasional reduction in visibility
to under 2 miles, to persist through 14Z. A gradual improvement
should occur thereafter, but with still IFR stratus through midday.
A return to VFR is expected by the afternoon hours with some remnant
scattered stratus. Expect to see stratus fill back in later this
evening, with at least MVFR returning. Slight chances for convection
will exist near/west of terminals late tonight, but uncertainty
precludes mention in forecast at this time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ006>008-
     015>017-023>025-031>033-039-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...32
AVIATION...Blair





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