Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 311651
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1151 AM CDT Sun May 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

Quiet conditions and below normal temperatures are expected for
several days in the wake of yesterday`s cold frontal passage,
bringing a needed break in rainfall for the forecast area through at
least Wednesday. Widespread cloud cover will gradually depart to the
southeast today, allowing temperatures to warm into the mid 60s to
near 70 by late afternoon despite continued cool temperatures aloft.
The coldest temperatures will then shift east of the region for the
beginning of the work week as an upper trough glides out of the
Plains and into the Ohio River valley, allowing temperatures to
gradually warm into the lower 70s by Monday and the mid 70s Tuesday.

Longwave ridging building over the High Plains will bulge eastward
during the mid- to late-week timeframe, continuing the warming trend
and keeping precipitation chances low. High temperatures will reach
the lower to mid 80s area-wide on Thursday, and possibly the upper
80s on Friday as the thermal axis edges into northeast KS and far
western MO. A few very isolated storms could sneak into portions of
northwestern MO Wednesday through next weekend, but the highest PoPs
will remain west and north of the CWA with the upper jet focused to
our north.

Models indicate the ridge breaking down beyond the end of the
forecast period, possibly allowing wetter conditions to develop
early next week. Until then, precipitation chances remain below 50
percent through the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1143 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

Will see VFR conditions through the afternoon with steady winds out
of the northeast. Aside from KSTJ, stratus cloud layer will likely
remain in place through the period. Clearing just northeast of the
terminal sites may bring a period or two of scattering clouds, though
developing broken layer to the northwest will move over the region
Sunday afternoon. Afternoon mixing will keep this layer above 3 kft,
but once the winds settle overnight, ceiling heights look to return
to MVFR through the remainder of the period. Could finally scatter
out toward the very end of the forecast, and will revisit this
possibility for the 00Z issuance.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Welsh





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