Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 221725

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1225 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Issued at 359 AM CDT WED MAR 22 2017

Satellite imagery this morning shows an amplifying ridge transiting
into the Plains ahead of a large East Pacific trough that is
starting to to make landfall over the West Coast. Aloft, this is
forcing the ridge axis into the Plains, though at the surface a cool
Canadian surface high remains in place across the Lower Missouri
River Valley, which will keeps todays temperatures near seasonal
normal values. The West Coast trough will be a driving factor in
the weather through the rest of the work week and weekend.

For today and tonight...the West Coast trough will keep warm air
advection prevailing across the Southern and Central Plains through
the next 24 hours. However, with the dry Canadian surface high in
place today, the moisture will start over-running and simply
reinforce the cloud cover across the region today. But, by late
tonight/early Thursday morning top down saturation may allow some
light rain to develop from the cloud deck that will be working its
way lower. Have included drizzle in the forecast with showers for
the early Thursday morning due to concerns that the over running
moisture depth will be a bit shallow.

Thursday...showers, or drizzle, that may have started before
sunrise, will likely move north through the day as a warm front
lifts across the region ahead of the West Coast trough that will
be digging into the Four Corners region. This will bring a return
of well above normal temperatures despite the cloud cover and
rain. With the warm front moving north of Missouri Thursday
afternoon, focus for precipitation will go with it, leaving
Thursday night dry. However, this all sets the stage for Friday.

Friday through the weekend...a significant chance of widespread rain
will move across the region as the West Coast trough begins to lift
out of the Four Corners region across the Southern and Central
Plains, which will likely take the entire weekend. Friday into
Saturday currently looks to be the wet days, with the current
model timing pushing the resulting precipitation to the northeast
of our area by Sunday; though a follow on trough will bring more
rain chance Sunday night into Monday. All that said, our focus is
currently on Friday for the heaviest rainfall and highest
potential for severe weather. Currently, the best combination of
forcing and instability looks to generate some strong storms
across southern Missouri and points south by Friday afternoon into
Friday evening. The question is how far north the severe threat
will stretch, as the currently forecast path of the ejecting
surface low into southern Missouri speaks to a limited potential
the farther north you go. However, with some 40 to 60 knots of
shear with a few hundred J/KG of MUCAPE to work with, think there
will be some, though marginal, threat of severe weather in areas
of east central Kansas into central Missouri. Primary threats
look to be strong winds and hail given the linear nature of the
shear. Threat of storms will likely last through Friday night into
Saturday as the upper level trough starts moves in aloft. By
Sunday the ejecting trough should have pushed the focus for rain
up to our north and east, though by Sunday night into Monday a
secondary trough, following on the heels of the ejecting trough,
will be moving through which might squeeze more rain out for us.


.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT WED MAR 22 2017

While VFR conditions will prevail for the remainder of the
afternoon, a stratus deck currently in southern KS/MO is making
its way up toward the terminals. While MVFR ceilings will likely
prevail to start, it is possible for ceilings to drop lower overnight,
particularly in the early morning hours on Thursday, so
subsequent TAFs may very well reflect those trends. Could see some
drizzle and/or light rain as well. Look for some partial clearing
by midday tomorrow.




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