Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 130517
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1117 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 301 PM CST TUE DEC 12 2017

The main concern for the short-term forecast continues to be the
high fire danger for tomorrow. The antecedent conditions remain
extremely dry across the area due to limited precipitation for
the last month to two months. That is coupled with the seasonal
trend in native grasses going dormant. Conditions will become
windy, both ahead of a weak front/trough and even more so in the
wake of that feature. Humidity values for the western half of the
forecast area will fall into the 30 to 40 percent range during
the afternoon. Winds will also be in the 15 to 20 mph range with
25 to 30 mph wind gusts. This should lead to high to very high
fire danger across mainly the western half of the forecast area.

We`ll remain in generally a northwesterly flow regime through the end
of the work week. Given this pattern there will be several upper
level shortwave troughs race southeast across the middle of the
country. The first in this series will move through tomorrow,
leading to the strong and gusty winds and fire danger. It
otherwise will be dry for us. The second looks to move into the
area late Thursday afternoon or into the evening. Moisture will
again be limited with this feature but with a more southwest
position to its track, the stronger forcing will move right over
the forecast area. Thus, we should see some thicker mid level
clouds and may even see light precipitation out of it. This looks
most likely in far northwestern MO and northeastern KS, but
sprinkles and/or flurries could spread across the entire forecast
area during the evening and overnight hours.

The northwesterly flow will weaken by Saturday and Sunday as the
western upper ridge retrogrades to the west. This will allow for a
series of upper level short wave troughs to deepen into the Four
Corners area. Even with this pattern shift, we only see strung-out
positively tilted vorticity maxima moving through early next week,
with little to no precipitation. Late in the forecast period and
into the middle to later portions of next week there is an
indication that deeper troughing will develop over western North
America as the ridge amplifies in the eastern Pacific. But there
remains considerable uncertainty with just how the pattern will
evolve through this period of time and much can and will change.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1116 PM CST TUE DEC 12 2017

Increased surface winds are expected through the overnight, with
gusty conditions commencing by the mid-morning hours ahead of a
weak frontal boundary. Once the boundary pushes through the area,
northwesterly flow will persist through the remainder of the
period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...Welsh


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