Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 251115
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
615 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 230 AM CDT TUE JUL 25 2017

Upper ridge over the southwestern US will deepen and shift east
into the Plains today, bringing a return to hot and humid
conditions. 850 hPa temps rising to near 21-22 C will be
supportive of surface temperatures in the lower to middle 90s
across much of the region this afternoon. Meanwhile easterly
surface winds have brought dewpoints down into the 60s, but
gradual veering through the day will bring them back into the
lower to middle 70s through the afternoon. This will yield heat
index values anywhere from 100 to 104 for areas near US 65
westward, while areas toward Macon and Kirksville still enjoy a
more comfortable day similar to Monday.

Ridging will begin to break down on Wednesday and allow a frontal
boundary to sag southward into northern MO late Weds evening.
Veering/downslope flow and moisture pooling ahead of this front
could conceivably yield a very hot day with highs in the
middle/upper 90s and heat index values in the mid to upper 100s if
skies were to stay sunny. This however is far from certain as
there is a decent chance that a convective complex over Nebraska
and Iowa could send clouds and even some showers and storms into
northern Missouri as early as late morning and significantly cut
back on heating across much of the area. Will therefore hold off
on any heat advisories for Wednesday until the timing and
placement of clouds and precipitation becomes more clear.

An intensifying low-level jet will feed into the anticipated
convective complex to the north Wednesday evening and could result
in a large MCS capable of damaging winds and widespread heavy rain
as it tracks east-southeast Wednesday night. Right now eastern Iowa
and western Illinois appear to be the most likely areas for this
activity, but will need to watch far northern and northeast
Missouri for heavy rain potential in case this takes any southward
shift. Additionally, depending on how clouds/precip play out
earlier on Wednesday, there`s the potential for a strongly
unstable airmass to support strong to severe storms further south
ahead of the front across eastern KS and western/northern MO
Wednesday evening. Downburst parameters such as DCAPE and
sfc/mid-level theta-e differentials do not appear nearly as
supportive of widespread damaging downbursts as compared to last
Saturday, but still some hail and strong winds could be a
possibility in some storms.

Frontal boundary will continue to push south on Thursday setting
up a very pleasant end to the week. High temperatures Thursday
through Sunday will only be in the lower to middle 80s, while
dewpoints could drop into the lower 60s and even upper 50s for the
first time in weeks.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 615 AM CDT TUE JUL 25 2017

Quiet weather next 24 hours with just a few cumulus developing
this afternoon. Light south-southeast winds and VFR through the
period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Hawblitzel
Aviation...Hawblitzel



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