Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 210809
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
309 AM CDT Thu May 21 2015


.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Clouds are clearing out from north to south this morning with high
pressure building in from the northwest. Sun will provide a 10 to 15
degree warmup from yesterday but temperatures will still be about 10
degrees below average.

Warm air advection will spread into the region on Friday with the
surface high shifting eastward, although an accompanying increase in
moisture and isentropic ascent will usher in clouds and a few light
rain showers particularly across areas near and west of the KS/MO
state line. This will likely keep temperatures down into the 60s for
these areas while areas further east should rise into the 70s.
Saturday will see a better chance for scattered showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm or two with continued isentropic lift and slightly
better moisture. None of this precipitation looks strong enough to
lead to any real flooding concerns and a lot of the day should be
dry.

Saturday night into Sunday will be the rainier/stormier period of
the Memorial Day weekend with the main upper trough approaching from
the west. Meridional flow throughout the troposphere could support
some training of north/south-oriented thunderstorm bands which could
lead to locally heavy rain and perhaps flooding concerns,
particularly across eastern KS into western MO. This continued
precipitation will likely result in poor lapse rates and low
instability, which combined with the lack of strong wind shear should
keep Sunday`s severe storm threat on the low side.

Forecast remains rather stormy heading into early next week with
several impulses embedded within broad southwest upper flow tracking
into the area. Warmer temperatures and higher instability could set
the stage for a few stronger storms during this time and additional
heavy rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Forecast for tonight at the area terminals is a bit tricky given
the ceilings on the cusp between MVFR and IFR. Clearing is making
its way down across NE and western IA as surface high pressure
inches closer to the region. This clearing from north to south
through tonight could cause some fog issues at STJ, MCI, MKC, and
depending on timing, IXD. Look for a reduction in ceilings and
visbys into IFR and possibly LIFR conditions, particularly at STJ
since the terminal should be clearing out within the next couple
of hours. Any fog and low stratus early this morning will clear
out shortly after sunrise, leaving VFR conditions at all four
terminals for the remainder of this TAF period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...lg
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...lg





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