Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 142054
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
254 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 254 PM CST WED FEB 14 2018

Stratus is finally beginning to mix out (just in time for sunset)
and will provide a very brief window of warming before nightfall.
However, the break in the stratus will make it just a bit more
difficult to redevelop overnight, at least until the early morning
hours. Stratus and perhaps some light fog and patchy drizzle is
possible from early through at least mid-morning Thursday as warm-
air advection pushes through the region, and a few light rain
showers are possible across central MO where lift is stronger.

A cold front will push through during the late afternoon, but
increasing southwest winds and hopefully a bit of sunshine will
help temperatures rise into the 60s to near 70 degrees by the time
the front passes. Temperatures will drop gradually in the evening,
then cold air will continually filter in and hold temperatures in
the 30s on Friday. Chilly temperatures are still expected to
moderate over the weekend, while high pressure dominates in the
wake of the cold front and keeps weather conditions quiet.

The system Monday into Tuesday is still on track but continues to
trend warmer with a more glancing blow from the upper trough and
thus warmer temperatures aloft. Precipitation type looks like
mainly rain at this point, and even an isolated rumble of thunder
could be possible Saturday afternoon across central MO, depending
on the setup of the system and any heating that occurs.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1137 AM CST WED FEB 14 2018

Difficult low cloud forecast this afternoon as persistent stratus
hangs on longer (and over a larger area) than depicted by many of
the short-term guidance products. Will still hope for some mixing
at the lowest levels to raise ceilings to VFR by late afternoon;
otherwise, if low stratus does not mix out prior to sunrise it
may persist through the whole forecast period. Winds will remain
out of the south to southwest, but will only really increase in
speed or become gusty if clouds can mix out this afternoon. Low-
level wind shear is possible by early Thursday morning when winds
at 2-3 kft increase to around 50 kts out of the southwest.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...Laflin



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