Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 252000
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
300 PM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

For tonight, the main concern will be precipitation chances along
several surface boundaries that currently linger around the northern
CWA border. The surface cold front associated with a low pressure
system now north of the Canadian border was reinforced by convective
outflow this morning, and has settled along the MO/IA border. A few
other preexisting outflow boundaries have pushed into the areas
between the IA border and Highway 36, but are not associated with
much low-level convergence. Convection is expected to develop along
and north of the surface cold front where upper level subsidence
associated with the upper high is weaker and midlevel lapse rates
are a bit steeper; however, a few isolated storms are possible
further south along the existing boundaries, or if outflow from
tonight`s storms pushes south and initiates convection. Have kept
low end PoPs as far south as the northern KC metro, but expect the
majority of precipitation to stay along and north of Highway 36.

For Tuesday, the focus shifts to temperatures as the upper level
ridge continues to position across the forecast area and 850 hPa
temperatures remain in the 20 to 22 C degree range. Outflow/cloud
cover associated with any storms tonight could hold temperatures
down across the northern half of the CWA and push the effective cold
front into the northern tier of counties, so have chosen not to
extend the heat advisory for areas north of the KC metro to Moberly.
Elsewhere, the advisory continues for one more day as moisture
pooling south of the boundary and another afternoon of temperatures
in the mid 90s supports max heat indices in the 100-105 degree range.

Slightly more widespread storms are possible Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning, creating another potential for clouds/cooling for
much of Wednesday. In addition, 850 hPa temperatures cool another
degree or two and allow temperatures to top out in the lower 90s
across most of the region. As a result, heat indices are not
expected to exceed 100 degrees Wednesday, and do not anticipate
extending the advisory past Tuesday evening. Storm chances will
continue through the daytime hours on Wednesday and into Thursday,
but how far storms can extend and how widespread any precipitation
will be is still very uncertain. Another upper low will finally kick
the surface cold front through the region sometime Friday or
Saturday, increasing storm chances and decreasing temperatures for
the end of the week into the weekend. Severe weather is not
expected, but periods of heavy rain are possible.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period. A
few isolated storms are possible across far northern Missouri between
09z-15z Tuesday, but are not expected to impact any of the TAF sites.
Winds will remain out of the south or southwest this afternoon and
evening, then will become light southeast during the night.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ057-060-103>105.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-102.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ028>033-037>040-
     043>046-053-054.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-
     020>025.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin






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