Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 130950
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
350 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

Cold airmass has settled into the region this morning with readings
in the teens and single digits. With increasing clouds today and
easterly low-level flow, temperatures will remain seasonably cold
with highs only in the 20s and even teens across parts of northern
and central MO.

A weak upper wave currently moving into Washington State will rapidly
drop southeast today, reaching far northern Missouri by sunrise
Sunday morning. While the upper wave itself is rather weak, stronger
low-level dynamics will provide adequate lift for some light
accumulating snow across parts of northern and central Missouri
tonight into early Sunday. Combination of deep isentropic ascent and
upper-level support should get the atmosphere saturated fairly
quickly despite a fairly significant dry layer around 850 hpa
initially. However, the fast-moving nature of the system will keep
snowfall amounts fairly limited with generally less than an inch
across all areas to the north and east of the KC metro. The exception
may be near and just northeast of Kirksville where snowfall
forecasts are in the one to two inch range.

As the system departs Sunday morning, veering flow will usher in
quick warm air advection while moisture starts to dry out in the
middle and upper troposphere. This combo of low-level isentropic
ascent and shallow moisture could set the stage for some light
freezing drizzle, mainly across areas to the southwest of the
accumulating snowfall including eastern KS and western MO. For now,
low-level ascent looks limited enough to keep any freezing drizzle
patchy in nature so that any icing would be very light. Not expecting
any significant travel problems at this time but it will bear
watching.

Warm air advection Sunday morning will set the stage for much warmer
temperatures by Sunday afternoon, with some areas near and south of
the KC metro approaching 50 degrees. Temperatures will rise a few
degrees further into the lower 50s for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.
Another weak wave will drop into the region Monday night and Tuesday,
but thermal profiles this time will support mostly rain with perhaps
some very light snow over far northern MO.

Northwest upper flow will eventually give way to broad ridging
across much of the nation toward the end of the work week. This will
allow temperatures to rise into the 60s across eastern KS and western
MO by Thursday, and across the entire area on Friday. It wouldn`t be
surprising to see a few 70 degree readings either day given 850 hPa
temps forecast to rise to between 10C and 15C, very warm for mid
February.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1014 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

Increasing VFR cloud cover will spread from northwest to southeast
across the region while ceilings lower from 12k ft to 6k ft by mid
Saturday morning. Should see MVFR ceilings and snow develop over
northeast MO during the late afternoon hours and continue into the
evening hours. Otherwise modest northerly winds will veer gradually to
the east-southeast by late Saturday morning and increase into the
lower/mid teens late in the afternoon hours.

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...MJ


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