Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 231115
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
515 AM CST MON NOV 23 2015
Issued at 303 AM CST MON NOV 23 2015
Warming trend continues today thanks to persistent southerly flow
which will bring temperatures into the middle 50s this afternoon
under mostly sunny skies. Similar conditions expected again on
Tuesday, perhaps a degree or two warmer.
This warm air advection pattern will continue into Tuesday night and
Wednesday when a stream of thick low-level moisture will advect into
the region from the Gulf of Mexico. This moisture plume could
produce areas of drizzle as early as Tuesday night across western
parts of the forecast area, with better chances for light rain or
drizzle spreading into much of the region Wednesday and Wednesday
night as the moist layer expands vertically and isentropic ascent
Thursday looks just plain wet everywhere, with a strengthening low-
level jet advecting copious amounts of moisture into the region.
Precipitable water values could reach as high as 1.4", something much
more typical of late spring or early summer instead of late November.
This deep moisture coupled with strong vertical ascent on the curved
side of a strong upper jet to the north will result in widespread
rain across the area throughout most of Thanksgiving Day. In fact
given the anomalously high moisture content and the expected
duration/magnitude of the best lift, most areas should see at least
an inch of rain with many areas approaching 2".
A fairly strong cold front will sweep through the area Thursday
evening shunting most of the precipitation to the east. However both
the GFS and ECMWF hint at enough moisture lingering behind the front
that a little bit of light wintry precipitation could occur Thursday
night in response to some weak lift along a post-frontal elevated
boundary. The westward-sloping nature of this boundary could result
in anything from light freezing rain or sleet to snow behind the
front. The better synoptic-scale ascent will have pushed east of the
area by this time, so that any post-frontal precipitation should be
light, but it certainly bears watching especially if we end up
dealing with any icing at all (during the early morning hours of
Black Friday no less). The most likely areas for any wintry
precipitation are roughly near and northwest of the I-35 corridor.
Any light precipitation behind the front will taper off through the
morning hours Friday, when temperatures will likely start rising
above freezing. While the cold front will continue pushing into the
Southern Plains over the weekend, upper-level flow will remain
southwesterly into early next week which could set the stage for
additional precipitation chances particularly Sunday into Monday.
Some of this could be wintry in nature with a shallow cold airmass in
place, but a lot of details are yet to be determined given the model
spread this far out.
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 515 AM CST MON NOV 23 2015
No aviation hazards through Tuesday with mostly clear skies. Light
southwest winds will become southeasterly this afternoon and tonight.