Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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534
FXUS63 KEAX 180959
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
359 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 359 AM CST SAT NOV 18 2017

Cold front has just about pushed through the southern portions of
the forecast area as of early this morning. The primary weather
impacts will be 1) continued chances for post-frontal precipitation
in the form of rain during the remainder of the morning hours and 2)
gusty northwest winds on the order of 30-40 mph gusts. Total
precipitation amounts will be light, generally between 0.10-0.25,
with rainfall ending at or before noon. Likewise, clouds will
rapidly clear from west to east during the afternoon hours. Even
with the afternoon sunshine, cold air advection will hold or bring
down temperatures into the middle 40s to lower 50s. The other aspect
to the day will be the windy conditions, with the highest gusts
likely occurring during the morning into early afternoon hours. As
of now, majority of guidance keeps sustained and gust wind speeds
below advisory criteria, with marginal peak gusts for an advisory at
best. Will watch upstream for wind speeds during the next couple of
hours to monitor whether peak gusts can reach upper envelope of
model guidance, and if so, an advisory may then be needed.
Otherwise, with the cooler airmass in place along with clear skies
and winds becoming light, overnight lows for tonight will fall back
down into the middle 20s to near 30.

For the upcoming week, no appreciable weather is anticipated for the
area with dry northwest flow aloft. A cold frontal passage is
expected on Tuesday reinforcing the cool airmass, resulting in mid-
week being the coolest temperatures during the work week.
Thanksgiving Day looks to be seasonably pleasant with highs in the
upper 40s to lower 50s, light winds, and mostly clear skies.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CST FRI NOV 17 2017

Moisture will continue to pool along and ahead of the cold front
which is now pushing through KSTJ and will arrive at the KC-area
terminals within the next few hours. This will result in patchy
fog and stratus ahead of the front, then thicker IFR stratus and
a few light rain showers in its wake. Winds will veer to the
north, then back just a few degrees to the northwest and increase
to 15 to 20 kts, with occasional gusts to 25 kts. Widespread light
to moderate rain will move in from the northwest around sunrise,
impacting all TAF sites between 12z and 18z Saturday. Afterward,
ceilings will scatter out and conditions will return to VFR.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Blair
Aviation...Laflin



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