


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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421 FXUS63 KEAX 131756 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1256 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Isolated to scattered showers and storms today, mainly south and east of a Kansas City to Macon, MO line. - Locally heavy rainfall is possible with any storm that develops. * Several additional chances for showers and storms this week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 249 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Water vapor imagery with 500mb heights plotted shows a positively tilted shortwave trough from northern MO into TX and potentially a closed low over northern OK. 00Z soundings from TOP, SGF, and OUN, show precipitable water values of roughly 1.6" at TOP, 1.8" at SGF, and 1.9 at OUN. At the surface, a weak front was stalled over the area that appears to be oriented from central OK northeastward into northeastern MO. Showers and a storms have developed in the vicinity of this front. Even the low to mid-level circulation is notable on the regional 0.5 degree reflectivity plot. This shortwave will slowly track eastward through the day and as a result, we should see an increase in coverage of the convection as the day progresses and the boundary layer becomes more buoyant. With only about 1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE and weak shear, the threat of organized severe weather is nil. However, given the airmass, water-loaded down drafts are possible. Additionally, locally heavy rainfall can be expected in any shower or storm that develops given the high precipitable water values, high freezing levels, and slow movement. By late this afternoon into this evening, it looks like the shortwave will be moving east of the forecast and that should lead to a winding down the showers and storms for our forecast area. With thick cloud cover today associated with the showers and storms, temperatures will be cooler than normal, especially for the southeastern half of the forecast area. We`ll see a lull in activity Monday as we temporarily have a drier (for July) airmass over us. Things change Tuesday into Wednesday. Models continue to show a mid-level shortwave moving northeastward into the area from OK. However there is some variability in the location and thus the location for potential heavy rainfall. The GFS is further east, keeping the best rain chances south and east of the area. The NAM is further west, stronger, and tracks the shortwave right over the forecast area with heavy rain associated with the wave. Most other models are weaker and closer in line to the GFS. This leads to the NAM being an outlier for rain amounts with this system with it showing pockets of 2-2.5 inches. While some of the higher end ensemble members have backed off their rain amounts for midweek, there are still some members in the GEFS showing 24-hour totals of 2.5-3". While this is unlikely to occur, it remains a small possibility so we`ll need to continue to watch this system given the environmental parameters. Ensemble guidance continues to show mean precipitable water values of around 1.8" with the 75th percentile near 2". While temperatures look more seasonal Monday and Tuesday, highs may climb into the low 90s across eastern KS and western MO on Wednesday. And with increased humidity, heat index values will climb to around 100 again. For late in the week, temperatures return to more seasonal levels with highs in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Weak flow and a storm system to the east continues to pass some low clouds over the terminals. Isolated showers also linger around IXD and to the east of MKC/MCI. These are expected to move eastward through the afternoon as a wave passes through the region. Sky coverage opens as thus wave moves through. Overnight, calm winds, clear skies, and saturated air presents a favorable environment for fog development. Uncertainty remains high in anticipated VIS impacts, but areas near valleys and bodies of water look to be the most likely to see significant VIS impacts. Fog clears out past sunrise with VFR conditions persisting through the remainder of the period. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDB AVIATION...Pesel