000
FXUS63 KEAX 221723
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1223 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 330 AM CDT SUN OCT 22 2017

Post frontal, trailing stratiform rain, with embedded, isolated
thunder continues across the region early this Sunday morning,
aided mostly by the passing of the stout mid/upper wave and a
generally weakening and eastward translating low level jet. A very
well defined back edge of the precipitation is currently rolling
across the KS/MO state line, and should be clear of the KC metro
within the next hour or two. This back edge will continue to move
east as the dry air works into the backside of the system, and
likely be clear of central Missouri shortly after sunrise. The
progression of the rain to the east has been a bit slower than
anticipated, so the longer duration of light to moderate rain has
bumped up totals into the 1.5 to 3 inch range over a large portion
of the area. There could still be some isolated streams with some
nuisance flooding as well as some roads across the area with
ponding and minor flooding.

For Sunday and the rest of the weekend, fair weather with
alternating warm and cool days as a series of surface ridges and
mid/upper troughs push through the area. A lack of moisture across
the area will likely render any passing trough relatively
ineffective with respect to precipitation production. Associated
surface ridges will push through with the passage of these mid
level troughs, bringing cool days on Tuesday, then again for the
end of the week. Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday will be on the
warmer side, with highs in the 60s to 70s, however Tuesday will be
a bit cooler with highs in the 50s, then Friday through next
weekend will be much cooler with highs in the 40s/50s. The coolest
airmass of the young cool season is likely on tap for the area by
Saturday and Sunday as a strong surface ridge of Canadian origin
will nose into the area with sub freezing or near sub freezing
temperatures. GFS is most aggressive with the cold temperatures
for Sat/Sun mornings, with progged lows in the middle 20s to lower
30s. These values are backed up by the Canadian model with a
similar output. Official forecast for Saturday morning reflects a
bit more of a moderate air mass, with lows in the lower to middle
30s. This may make a little more sense considering the lack of
snowfall north of the area, thus more of a modified air mass as it
dives southward. At any rate, it does appear that a large portion
of the area - likely areas north of I-70 - could see their first
freeze of the year. Areas south of I-70 aren`t currently progged
to be much warmer than areas further north, so if the air mass
comes in more like the GFS, among other models, have it, then even
areas in and around KC and areas south could see their first
freezing temperatures of the season Saturday, then perhaps again
on Sunday morning.

There is some signal, mainly within the output of the GFS that the
mid/upper wave associated with this plunge of cold air could bring
some isolated precipitation. Right now it looks unlikely that
there will be enough moisture in the atmospheric column over NW MO
and NE Kansas to warrant much in the way of PoPs Saturday morning
when low/mid level temperatures would support any kind of snow
production. That being said, given how cold the air mass
potentially could be, and given the support for ascent in the
mid/upper levels, a snow flurry or two can`t be completely ruled
out if everything comes together Saturday morning. For now the
forecast reflects a dry forecast for that time period.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT SUN OCT 22 2017

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Northwest winds
will go a bit light and variable overnight, turning to the south
for a few hours Monday morning before a dry cold front sweep south
and brings gusty northwest winds back to the region.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Leighton
Aviation...Cutter