Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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838
FXUS63 KEAX 300522
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1222 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 257 PM CDT WED MAR 29 2017

Main concern this afternoon and evening revolve around severe wx
potential, mainly along and south of the Route 50 corridor. Latest
GOES-16 visible satellite imagery showing a fair amount of
clearing across southern Missouri this hour, with some thinning of
the stratus deck noted further north across our southern portions
of our forecast area. This likely marks the position of a nearly
stalled warm front with upper 50 degree dewpoints noted just to
its south. Per latest SPC RUC analyses, instability generation
has largely been confined to areas south of our area, however fcst
models to include both the RUC and NAM suggest a narrow corridor
of MLCAPE exceeding 500 J/kg extending north into our area later
this afternoon and evening, just south of the warm front. Looking
out west, initial convection now developing over eastern Kansas,
and considering the expectations for the previously mentioned
instability axis extending north in our area, expect this activity
to gradually grow upscale over the next few hours. Wind fields
from various BUFKIT soundings south of Route 50 are impressive,
with stout southeast boundary layer winds overlaid with strong
west-southwest winds centered near 5 kft. This curvature combined
with horizontal vorticity generation along the warm front suggests
an isolated tornado threat will remain with any discrete cells
that develop within the next few hours. As mentioned in previous
forecast updates however, much will remain contingent upon the
degree of destabilization that can occur within the next few
hours. If current RUC and NAM fcsts are accurate, its not
inconceivable to expect mini-supercells south of the KC Metro
with an isolated tornado threat.

Severe convection (if it develops) should congeal more into
multicell structures as the evening hours continue on. After this
exits stage right, deformation band rainfall, now seen western
Kansas and southern Nebraska will begin to shift to the south
before steadily making its way over our area early Thursday
morning. Much of the instability should be gone by then, however
the continuation of an isolated thunder mention appears warranted
given residual MUCAPE aloft. Much if not the entire area should
get involved with this before bulk of precip exits by early
afternoon. This will quickly be followed by increasing heights
aloft and the approach of a shortwave ridge axis which should then
provide for dry weather heading into the early half of the
weekend.

Dry weather won`t last too long as the aforementioned ridge
slides east and the next longwave trough/closed low approaches
Saturday night and Sunday. Again, decent moisture advection in
advance of this feature will help lead to favorable conditions for
precipitation redevelopment by Sunday over much of the lower
Missouri Valley. Overall instability looks to once again be
lacking, however cannot rule out isolated thunder activity with
this system as it slowly marches east. Dry weather looks to return
by Monday afternoon with the next system expected to dive
southeast from the Northern Rockies by midweek, bringing yet
another chance for rainfall to the area as the very active
jetstream pattern continues...

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT THU MAR 30 2017

Combination of IFR and LIFR conditions are developing across
western Missouri and eastern Kansas. Conditions are expected to
remain rather poor for the next 24 hours as low clouds and showers
move across the region with the upper level low that is currently
spinning over eastern Kansas. However, while flight conditions
will be poor through Thursday, confidence on the specifics in the
TAF is low and will likely require much amending.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...Cutter



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