Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 301151
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
651 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 337 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

Quiet conditions and seasonable temperatures are expected to continue
today and through tomorrow, as upper-level low pressure spins and
slowly retrogrades across the Mississippi Valley, keeping the region
entrenched in northerly flow. In general, the response of the west-
ward creeping upper low will be to increase cloud cover particularly
across the eastern half of the CWA, and possibly allow a few very
light, very isolated rain showers to develop east of Hwy 65. Lighter
surface winds may allow low-level moisture to pool and temperatures
to cool in clear areas tonight into early Saturday morning, pointing
to the possibility of some light fog across portions of northeast KS
and northern MO, possibly spreading as far south as the KC metro.

The upper low will transition northeastward this weekend as ridging
builds into the center of the country, allowing temperatures to begin
a warming trend Sunday through Tuesday. Currently, both Monday and
Tuesday look like candidates to reach the 80 degree mark across the
western third of the forecast area as southerly winds increase in
response to building low pressure across the High Plains.

Changes are ahead by the end of the forecast period as lee-side low
pressure ejects out to the northeast and drags a strong cold front
across the CONUS. Most models are focusing a fairly robust line of
convection along a pre-frontal trough that could edge into our CWA as
early as Tuesday evening, but more likely during the overnight hours
leading into Wednesday morning. Severe potential will depend on the
track of the surface low and timing of convection, but will be at
least possible near the surface low and extending southward to where
the upper jet noses into the central CONUS. Models differ on the
extent of the cold air that fills in behind this system, but it
appears the chilliest air will remain further north as the surface
low lifts quickly into the Great Lakes region by the end of the
period.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 651 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

VFR conditions and light winds are anticipated today. Some light fog
is possible at KSTJ and possibly KMCI by early Saturday morning, but
the probability is too low to warrant a mention at this time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...Laflin



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