Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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525
FXUS63 KEAX 220908
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
308 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 308 AM CST WED NOV 22 2017

Tranquil weather continues to be the trend with this package as the
forecast looks dry for the foreseeable future. Temperatures, on the
other hand will be quite variable. The low point, as far as
temperatures go, will come this morning as high pressure moving into
the area allows for good radiational cooling. Temperatures will
start the day in the mid teens to lower 20s. High pressure will
remain over the area which will allow for copious sunshine however
mixing will be weak so temperatures will remain below normal with
highs in the low to mid 40s. A brief period of warm air advection
will get underway tonight as high pressure shifts eastward however,
another area of high pressure will move back into the area for the
Thanksgiving holiday. Temperatures will not start as cool Thursday
morning and general height rises across the area will allow
temperatures to rise into the 50s. Strong WAA will get underway as
that surface ridge of high pressure slides east Thursday night into
Friday. This will make for a very mild but breezy day Friday with
highs in to mid 60s to near 70.

Late Friday/Friday night a upper level trough will dig from the
Canadian Plains into the Great Lakes. This will force a cold front
through the area. However, will little cold air behind the front,
temperatures will still remain above normal on Saturday as high
pressure builds into the region. Expect highs in the 50s. High
pressure will remain over the area Sunday with highs remaining in
the 50s. Monday is expected to be another mild and windy day as
upper level ridging builds into the region in response to a upper
level trough digging into the Rockies. A cold front associated with
the upper level trough will develop across the western Plains Monday
as WAA develops out ahead it affect the local area. Temperatures
inherited by the model blend suggest highs in the mid 50s to lower
60s however, that may be begin muted a bit by climatology as other
guidance suggests highs possibly in the mid 60s to near 70.

The best chance for precipitation may come on Tuesday next week as
the upper level trough over the Rockies will eject out into the
Plains and force the aforementioned cold front through the area. The
EC is much further south with the upper level feature than the GFS
and would bring much cooler air back into the area. The GFS solution
is warmer. Moisture is meager with both solutions however the EC may
bring a slightly better chance for precipitation.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1049 PM CST TUE NOV 21 2017

VFR conditions and diminishing winds are expected for the TAF
period. Wind direction will be variable throughout the day
Wednesday, at speeds less than 5 kts.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...Laflin



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