Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 261108
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
608 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 358 AM CDT FRI MAY 26 2017

A cluster of thunderstorms coincident with a mid-level shortwave
over northwest Missouri will continue to lift eastward through the
early morning. One particular cluster of storms over the southern
CWA continues to maintain strengthening trends, and appears to be
driven along the edge of an EML. This activity should continue to
advect eastward and support potential large hail across the
southern counties. By the mid-morning, all activity will lift
northeastward as a downstream ridge continues to build, with upper
level flow subsequently becoming southwesterly. As the shortwave
lifts into eastern Iowa, early afternoon convection will be
favored for areas across northeastern Missouri. However, low level
convergence is expected across the I-70 corridor near a stalled
frontal boundary. A surface low currently over north central
Oklahoma will lift northeastward during the afternoon, with
subsequent warm advection expected along and south of the frontal
boundary near I-70. Convection is possible along the boundary,
though should generally be limited to areas well east of the
Kansas City area. Existing steep mid-level lapse rates and
building MUCAPE values ranging from 3000 to 3500 J/kg along and
south of the boundary may support deep convection, though a weak
cap and marginal forcing should hinder widespread severe
potential. Regardless, isolated severe storms are possible along
the boundary, with large hail and strong winds being the primary
hazards. With stout warm advection in place as the surface low
lifts northeastward, high temperatures will rise into the lower
80s by the afternoon hours.

Attention will then turn to Saturday as a potent storm system
approaches the Southern and Central Plains. A large upper-level
trough will advect out of the Central Rockies and approach the
local area by the late weekend. Models continue to advertise an
MCS developing across southwestern Nebraska and eventually moving
into northwest Missouri by Saturday morning. The aforementioned
warm front will undergo little northward movement during this
time, permitting a moist and unstable airmass to build south of
the boundary by Saturday afternoon. Increasing low-level moisture
will send dewpoint values into the mid 60s to lower 70s for areas
south of I-70. MUCAPE values may exceed 4000 J/kg with 0-6 km
shear values ranging from 40 to 50 kts. Any mesoscale boundaries
driven by the MCS, along with a shortwave advecting over the
stalled boundary will trigger deep convection within a highly
unstable environment Saturday afternoon. While there is some
uncertainty in storm mode, anything that does develop will likely
be severe given the favorable environment. Primary hazards will
reside with large hail and damaging winds, and cannot rule out
tornadic potential near the warm front across central Missouri.

Dry conditions will quickly return to the area Sunday and through
the remainder of the holiday weekend, as temperatures peak in the
mid to upper 70s across the area. While isolated showers and storms
are possible by Tuesday and Wednesday, better chances will hold off
until the latter half of next week as another progged upper trough
advances over the region.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 603 AM CDT FRI MAY 26 2017

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period with
precipitation chances remaining east of the terminals. Surface
winds will generally vary in direction as a surface low
strengthens to the southwest and lifts into the area by the late
weekend. Low level cloud cover will advect into the local area
Saturday morning ahead of the next storm system, which will impact
all of the terminals by Saturday afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Welsh


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