Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 230923
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
423 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 422 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

Today - Tuesday:

Excessive heat and high humidity will continue to be the primary
theme/concern into the early portion of next week. H8 temperatures
will be little changed during this period while dewpoints in the
low/mid 70s today will drop off into the middle to upper 60s owing
to deeper mixing. So, while daily highs through Tuesday will not see
much day-to-day change the relative humidity is expected to fall
sufficiently to keep heat index readings below advisory criteria
after today.

A pronounced upper level ridge currently runs north-south through MO
while a sharp upper level trough lies over the northern
intermountain region. This latter feature is progged to lift
northeast through Sunday forcing the northern portion of the upper
ridge to lean eastward. A quasi-stationary boundary lies across
northern MO this morning with scattered convection along and north
of it. A low-level jet over the Central Plains is progged to veer to
the southwest today and enhance isentropic ascent on the 310K
surface. This may be sufficient to overcome minimal CIN and generate
widely scattered convection over west central MO this morning with
the activity shifting quickly northeast. H7 temperatures warming to
12C this afternoon should then effectively cap the airmass and end
the convective threat.

As the intermountain upper trough lifts into the Northern Plains on
Sunday it will likely force a cold front east across NE and KS. This
front may reach into northwest MO Sunday night and then stall over
this region on Monday before lifting back north.

Tuesday Night - Thursday:

Still looking at this time period when we finally break the back of
the heat/humidity. Another sharp upper trough is expected to move
into the northern intermountain region but this time the medium
range models march it due east and push a cold front into the CWA
Tuesday night and Wednesday. Scattered convection is expected to
accompany the front. The ECMWF and GEM models are signaling a
stronger and slower system which would prolong the rain threat into
Thursday. The current modest PoPs are a bit conservative but there
is plenty of time to increase them in future forecasts. High
temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s are expected during this
period.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Challenging aviation fcst going forward this evening as latest fcst
models continue to suggest developing convection in the predawn hrs.
Current line of thinking is that convection will be possible at all
terminals between 10-13z as secondary frontal feature moves through
the area. For now...have included a VCTS mention at all sites to
account for this. After daybreak...any convection should quickly exit
to th east and northeast with dry conditions expected through the
duration of the fcst period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-
     020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...32






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