Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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808
FXUS63 KEAX 161007
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
407 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 407 AM CST SAT DEC 16 2017

Satellite imagery this morning shows a split flow, that models have
been advertising lately, has developed across the western half of
the Nation with the help of a modest ridge across the Rockies and a
cutoff circulation --trapped under the ridge-- in northern Mexico.
Down stream, shortwave ridging from the Mexico circulation has
already resulted in a return of southerly winds to the Central
Plains, which will help fuel a little warming trend as highs jump
well into the 50s to low 60s this afternoon. However, as is common
this time of year, warmer temperatures will only arrive with the
help of breezy winds, which will prevail from the southwest today.
And, as is common with breezy winds, boundary layer mixing and the
general nature of the continental airmass will likely result in low
humidity values this afternoon. As a result, expect fire weather
concerns to be a bit elevated today as the lack of moisture lately
has left the fine fuels across the region receptive to any sparks.
Areas most at risk for elevated fire concerns are along and south of
I-70, where the combination of winds and low humidity values will
converge. However, while today my be a bit dry and breezy, those
self same winds will help bring a bit of moisture north from the
western Gulf, setting the stage for the exiting Mexico circulation
to bring some widespread rain to the region.

Expectations persist that the Mexico circulation will quickly get
kicked out into the Plains thanks to the shortwave trough currently
making landfall across the West Coast early this morning. This will
result in a broad region of decent isentropic lift advecting
northeast across the Plains, which will bring some light
precipitation accumulations to eastern Kansas and Missouri
between midnight and noon Sunday. While confidence is rather high
that some rain will fall across the region, expectations are that
accumulations will be on the light side, with only a trace to few
hundredths of an inch likely in far northwest Missouri, while
areas in central Missouri get a couple tenths of an inch.
Temperatures through the period will be warm enough to preclude
any significant threat of wintry precipitation in northern
Missouri. That said, temperatures cool enough to result in a bit
of wintry precipitation will be just to our north in Iowa. Cooler
temperatures will arrive with the cloud cover and rain Sunday
--highs in the 40s--, but as the system quickly moves out, warmer
temperatures will make their return with 50s prevailing through
the front half of the work week as the prevailing westerlies shift
back to the north.

Looking late into the work week, models continue to advertise
another "clipper" like system moving across the Plains as the
prevailing westerlies interact with another Eastern Pacific trough.
Confidence is starting to grow that this will provide another round
of precipitation Thursday. Focus for the late work week system will
likely be across the Northern Plains, but the activity may swing far
enough south to bring another round of precipitation to areas north
of the Missouri River, and temperatures Thursday morning and/or
evening may be cold enough for snow. Given the limited residency
time for this expect clipper, precipitation --and snow particularly--
totals at this time are expected to be rather low.



&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1052 PM CST FRI DEC 15 2017

VFR conditions will continue to dominate through this TAF period
with increasing SW winds being the primary aviation concern. These
winds are anticipated to slacken slightly after sunset Saturday,
although upper-level clouds will be on the increase simultaneously.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...lg



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