Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 261738
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1238 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 337 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

Widespread showers and thunderstorms continue to develop and spread
across much of the forecast area this morning. Upstream convection
should ensure several more hours of precipitation. Will continue to
closely monitor flash flood potential, although robust convection
has been limited over the same areas. Dense rainfall network over
the KC Metro shows rainfall ranging from just a few hundredths to
1.60 inches over a 3-hour period. The highest amounts remain still
shy of flash flood guidance, but continued duration will increase
threat of localized flash flooding this morning. Otherwise local
streams and rivers are just now responding to recent rainfall, and
will closely monitor river flooding potential. This activity should
gradually lift to the north and weaken by mid to late morning, with
an overall lull for the forecast area by midday. Thereafter, another
round of thunderstorms should develop by early to mid afternoon
along and north of the surface front that will gradually lift north
from its current position. This places areas along and north of the
Interstate 70 corridor within the highest potential for additional
thunderstorms later today. The active weather pattern looks to
continue through early next week with continued chances for showers
and thunderstorms, although dry periods will certainly be present.
Predictability remains challenging to identify highest chances for
thunderstorms as subtle disturbances and mesoscale features remain
unresolvable at this time scale.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

Combination of MVFR to VFR conditions are currently prevailing across
the terminals, but more thunderstorms are expected to develop later
this afternoon in northeast Kansas and move east late in the
afternoon and evening. This will likely affect the terminals between
22Z and 02Z today. Confidence on timing is alright on timing this
afternoon, but is rather low with respect to the CIG and VIS
parameters. Storms are expected to shift east this evening, but
there might be lingering activity overnight that will require
monitoring.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Blair
Aviation...Cutter



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