Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 251128

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
628 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Issued at 327 AM CDT TUE APR 25 2017

Today will be another fairly windy day, as a surface low in
western KS approaches eastern KS/western MO. At the upper levels,
a trough is deepening over the western CONUS, ejecting energy over
the Central Plains. These features in conjunction with an 850 mb
low- level jet are already producing some light precipitation in
eastern KS and NE. This will move northeast, clipping northeast KS
and northwestern MO. By late morning, everyone should be dry.
Warm air advection will increase this afternoon, helping
temperatures reach the 70s and even low 80s in the southern half
of KS/MO and eastern half of MO.

Our attention then turns to the storm and severe weather chances
this evening into the overnight hours for eastern KS and
western/central MO. The WAA will help create sufficient
instability across the entire area (1500-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE and
SBCAPE), but a moderate cap will be in place for most of the day
until the cold front associated with the system enters MO/KS and
breaks the cap this evening. Moisture will not be lacking as
dewpoints climb into the upper 50s, and low 60s. Finally, the 0-6
km shear will also be sufficient, with values between 50 and 60
kts. The shear vectors are mostly parallel to the cold front;
therefore, some discrete cells may develop initially but a linear
system will be the dominate storm mode. High Res models are
indicating convective initiation should start around 7 PM along
I-35 in eastern KS and move east into MO. The primary threats
today are large hail and damaging winds. The tornado threat can`t
be completely ruled out, but is minimal at this time. Once the
cold front moves through, the severe weather threat will diminish
but post-frontal showers and a few non-severe storms will be
likely, especially south and east of I-35. They should last
through most of the day Wednesday.

We will see a break from the rain Thursday, but on and off
showers and storms return Friday through Sunday. A broad trough
over the northern Rockies will begin to deepen while a surface low
will develop over the southern Rockies. This system will
eventually move into the Central Plains creating a surface
boundary that will be the focal point for the weekend showers and
storms. Right now, it appears to settle south of I-70, producing
several round of fairly heavy rain. There is plenty of time though
for the location and timing for this system to change.

The weekend system should exit the area by Monday as a surface
high settles in behind it. This is short-lived though as another
rain maker sets up for Tuesday/Wednesday.


.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 625 AM CDT TUE APR 25 2017

VFR conditions are expected for the first part of the period with
MVFR and then IFR ceilings expected after 03Z when a cold front
sweeps through the area from the northeast. A surface low over
central KS/OK is approaching the area and will set the stage for
this period`s weather concerns. During the afternoon, the
southerly winds will be sustained between 10-20 kts with gusts
20-30 kts. The strongest winds will be south and east of I-35.
The gusty winds will diminish around sunset. The cold front
should enter northwest MO/northeastern KS and start veering winds
to the northwest around 21Z, and should be in central MO around
06Z. A line of showers and storms is expected to develop near the
I-35 corridor in eastern KS around 00Z and move east with the cold
front. Widespread MVFR ceilings and then IFR ceilings will move
in behind the cold front through the end of the period. Some areas
could even see LIFR ceilings after 06Z but will let later TAFs
address this as there is still some uncertainty.




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