Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 231735

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1235 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Issued at 331 PM CDT FRI JUN 23 2017

Scattered showers and storms finally made their way into the
forecast area within the last couple of hours. They have formed
along a cold front, which is working its way southeast. We could see
some small hail out of a couple of storms, but mainly expect
general thunderstorms. Storms will continue to move southeast with
the cold front and should be out of the area by late morning.
Moving in behind the storms and cold front, is a surface high
pressure. This will bring cooler temperatures and drier air for
the next several days. Highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s,
with lows in the 50s. Both the highs and lows are below normal for
this time of year.

The broad upper level trough over the Great Lakes, which is
influencing our weather this morning, will not move much over the
next couple of days. This may bring storm chances back into the
area Sunday into Monday, as upper level energy moves overhead on
the trough`s southern periphery. There also looks to be some warm
air advection creeping into the area, supporting some storm
development. There is fairly good agreement among long range
models, but the 00Z NAM doesn`t show much in the way of warm air
advection or precipitation. Will have to wait and see how future
model runs handle this timeframe. If storms do develop, there`s
not much in the way of CAPE right now, so potential storms will
likely be sub-severe. On Tuesday, an upper level ridge will move
over the region, while at the surface, we transition into the warm
sector of a surface low developing in the Northern Plains. This
will increase temperatures into the upper 80s for the end of next
week. Mid-week, multiple upper level shortwave troughs will move
overhead, resulting in multiple rounds of storms through the end
of next week. Still too early for specifics, but there is
potential for some of this activity to be severe.


.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT FRI JUN 23 2017

VFR conditions expected through the period, with gradually
decreasing clouds and decreasing wind speeds.




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