Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 121114

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
614 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2015

Issued at 409 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2015

The pleasant and nice weather from this weekend will persist
through the work week, though temperatures will be a bit closer to
normal. A rather flat pattern is in place across the Nation this
morning with a notable trough moving east along the Canadian border.
This trough is responsible for the cold front that is slowly
sweeping into northern Missouri early this morning. The front is not
pushing south very aggressively as the main trough driving it is
moving east leaving pressure rises behind the front across the Plains
rather modest. Still, the front will slow sweep across eastern Kansas
and northern Missouri this morning allowing some relatively cooler
and drier air, though still warmer than seasonal normal, to spread
across the region which will place our focus today on fire weather
conditions, the details of which you can find in the Fire Weather
section below.

In general, for the next several days, some slightly cooler air will
be filtering through the Plains behind a cold front that is sweeping
across the region today. However, "cooler" is a relative term as
absolute values will still be above seasonally normal readings with
highs in the 70s likely to persist through Thursday as the core of
the westerlies remains to our north. Otherwise, temperatures look to
cool off to around or just below normal at the end of the work week
and through the weekend as another dry cold front sweeps through the
Plains late Thursday. This late work week shot of cool air will
likely knock afternoon readings down into the 60s, with overnight
lows in the 30s. Frost is not currently expected, however interested
parties with frost concerns north of the Missouri River should start
paying attention to Saturday mornings forecast low.

Issued at 409 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2015

Conditions behind the cold front today will be quite a bit drier
than we have seen of late, as dewpoints are expected to drop from
around 60F to around 40F behind the front. This will be coincident
with strong winds; sustained northwest wind with speeds around 20MPH
gusting to 30MPH by this afternoon. However, while available fuels
have begun to dry out the lack of a frost or freeze as of yet has
left much of the fuel bed still a bit green, so fuels are not
currently critical at this time. Putting all this together you get
weather conditions that will border on critical thresholds but fine
fuels that are not. Therefore will hold off on any specific fire
product for now and highlight the issue in a Special Weather
Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 612 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2015

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours with only high
clouds to note. Otherwise, expect gusty northwest winds to persist
today behind the cold front that moved through the terminals early
this morning.


.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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