Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 210808
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
308 AM CDT Tue May 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
The main upper-level low is still spinning in the Upper Missouri
Valley but the cold front associated with the upper storm system may
almost be out of our forecast area by this afternoon. So the best
chances for storms looks to only be our southeastern zones. The NAM
hangs the front up this afternoon further north but even with the
slower NAM, the instability is very weak and shear is marginal at
best for storm organization. So any storms we do see are not expected
to become severe.
Outside of the small convective chances for our southeastern zones,
the forecast for today and tonight looks quiet. Cooler and drier air
will move into the region with highs in the low to mid 70s expected
across much of the area.
The persistent upper low will finally begin to move east but as it
does, may bring a small chance for showers and thunderstorms to
northern and northeastern Missouri. Being that it`s May, with surface
temperatures expected to be in the 60s across northern Missouri, and
the colder air aloft associated with the upper low moving closer to
the forecast area, some diurnally driven showers and few storms look
possible. Severe weather is not expected with this activity.
Quiet, comfortable weather is expected for Thursday as high pressure
builds into the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes area. This
will bring drier northeasterly winds to the area with highs in the
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
Near to above normal temperatures and somewhat unsettled conditions
are expected through the long-range forecast period as a shallow
ridge builds over the eastern Plains and several shortwave troughs
ride over the ridge axis.
The first shortwave trough should push into the area by late Friday
or early Saturday, bringing scattered thunderstorms chances into the
forecast area for the end of the work week and into the weekend. The
best chance of precipitation should be Saturday as the main trough
axis moves through. A frontal boundary may linger across northern or
northeast portions of the region on Sunday and Monday, stretching
precipitation chances through the remainder of the weekend and into
early next week, but the overall chance of precipitation will be
much lower with this more subtle feature. Another shortwave trough
will head into the region late Monday and into Tuesday, which could
bring another round of showers and thunderstorms into the region for
the end of the forecast period.
Highs will start out in the lower to mid 70`s for Friday, then will
warm into the upper 70`s and into the 80`s by the end of the period
as the ridge strengthens across the region. Lows should also be a
few degrees above normal in the mid 60`s as a result of cloud cover
and precipitation around the area.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
VFR conditions are expected at the terminal through the entire valid
period. High level clouds from thunderstorms south of the region will
continue to move east and thin over western Missouri. There may be
some afternoon clouds around 5k ft build by noon or so but any
thunderstorm activity should well off to the east of the region.
Skies should become clear during the evening but there is chance that
lower clouds could move into northern Missouri associated with the
upper low over the northern Plains. The better chance of this
occurring looks after this valid period however, so have cleared
things out after 01Z or so.