Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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903
FXUS63 KEAX 220514
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1114 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 243 PM CST WED FEB 21 2018

Another day, another wintry mess heading our way. Water vapor
imagery shows a shortwave trough lifting northeastward across TX and
western OK. Regional radar imagery shows echoes moving into central
OK with surface observations confirming a mix bag of precipitation
being reported. This central OK portion may weaken before making
it makes it into the forecast area. It`s the precipitation
showing up from southwestern KS into the TX/OK panhandles that
should be the main onset of precipitation in our area.
Temperatures have struggled today with the northerly/northeasterly
flow reinforcing the cold air. Throw in persistent higher cloud
cover and there has been little warm up. This should keep the area
below freezing through the onset of precipitation later this
evening. There may be some precipitation in eastern KS and western
MO in the 9 pm to midnight window, but chances will really start
to increase closer to midnight and through the remainder of the
overnight hours. Overall, it looks like much of western MO and
eastern KS will see another tenth to two tenths of an inch of
freezing rain and northwestern MO and northeastern KS will see
half an inch to as much as two inches of a combination of snow
and sleet. The higher amounts, which will be more snow
accumulation, will be farther to the northwest. This wintry mess
will transition into all liquid from south to north through day.
But this transition may stall along the highway 36 corridor before
temperatures start to cool again around sunset.

For Friday, temperatures may be cooler than currently depicted. But
this will have a lot to do with how much snow and ice is
accumulated. If we`re cooler, this will affect the amount of melting
that occurs. It could even throw off the next round of precipitation
Friday night/ Saturday morning since there would be minimal
temperature recovery with minimal warm advection leading into that
round. Regardless, this looks more like a drizzle/freezing drizzle
episode, with minimal impact, depending on how temperatures pan out.

The main upper level storm system will finally move through the
region Saturday. There is some uncertainty about how far north the
wave and the associated surface low will be. This impacts the
amount of warm/moist advection into the area. For now, think there
is a chance for storms, mainly in the southeastern two- thirds of
the forecast area. It seems this period will need to be monitored
for the potential for some strong storms. The GFS and NAM bring a
robust shortwave through the area that takes on a slightly
negative tilt. With strong dynamics, if temperatures and moisture
can advect more strongly into the region, there could be a period
of strong storms in the eastern third of the forecast area.

The remainder of the forecast looks relatively quiet with
temperatures a bit above normal.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1113 PM CST WED FEB 21 2018

A weather system will be pushing into the area with a mix of
precipitation with mostly freezing rain, freezing drizzle, and
ice pellets south of the Missouri River and snow to ice pellets
north of the River. KMCI will be right on that line with mostly a
mix of ice pellets and snow transitioning to all freezing rain by
8-9Z. This freezing rain looks to last 4-5 hours and may cause
issues in the morning with take off and landing. This will
basically be the case with all the airfields in the morning
timeframe until the system pushes out around 14-15Z. A total of
between 0.05-0.1 inches of ice accumulation are possible for the
southern terminals with more snow and ice pellet accumulation to
the north. To go along with this wintry mix of precipitation will
be an IFR ceiling that will reside from around 8-9z until the end
of the period. Ceilings look to lower slightly at the end of the
period and may result in some of the airfields beside KMCI going
into an alternate minimum category. A second round of
precipitation is expected to push into the region around 21z and
surface temperatures will drive what type of precipitation falls.
It looks like the freezing line will push just north of KMCI,
leaving everything south to be rain while everything north will be
freezing rain. If this freezing line shifts south then
precipitation would result in freezing rain. With only one or two
degrees making the difference this period will be monitored and
updated with the latest temperature forecast in subsequent
forecasts. Ceilings will drop below alternate minimums between
00-03z which will last through the end of the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Thursday for KSZ025-057-
     060-103>105.

     Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Thursday for KSZ102.

MO...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Thursday for MOZ028>033-
     037>040-043>046-053-054.

     Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Thursday for MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025.

&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...Barham



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