Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 181052
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
552 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Overnight MCS over central KS dissipated rapidly as it encountered a
dry airmass over our area. This airmass should allow the remnant
cirrus shield to gradually thin through the day with skies generally
partly to mostly sunny. Meanwhile veering low-level flow will bring a
surge of warm air at 850 hPa into eastern KS and western MO through
the day, supportive of temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s
across much of the area this afternoon.

Tonight a weak front will sag south out of Nebraska and Iowa toward
northeast KS and far northwest MO. Overall lift along the front will
be weak, and may not be able to overcome fairly strong capping
associated with the aforementioned surge of warm 850 hPa
temperatures. However, last few runs of the NAM and GFS have been
indicating a low-level jet may develop toward 06Z and feed into the
front over northeast KS/northwest MO later this evening. Lift ahead
of this jet is strong enough in the NAM, GFS and a few WRF runs to
break the cap and get a potential convective complex going over much
of the forecast area overnight. Confidence in this actually happening
is not terribly high given the degree of capping in place, so kept
PoPs limited to 30 to 40 percent for now. Should storms develop, mid-
level winds and elevated instability above the CAP could be strong
enough for a few robust storms capable of strong winds and perhaps
some hail.

The story beyond Monday turns to heat as ridging begins to build
into the center of the country. An associated warm front lifting
through the area Tuesday night could spark a few storms especially
north of I-70, otherwise the primary storm track should shift north
of the area through the remainder of the week. Trended a bit warmer
than model guidance for the Wednesday through Sunday period with
highs in the lower to middle 90s for the entire area. Can`t rule out
a few upper 90s later this week for areas south and west of the KC
area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 55 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Areas of dense fog have developed across central Missouri this
morning, with the western edge about 50 miles to the east of MCI/MKC.
This fog should remain to the east of the KC area airports and will
gradually lift by 9 AM.

Once fog clears out, the rest of the day looks generally clear with
perhaps a few cumulus in the afternoon. There is the potential for a
thunderstorm complex to develop over northeast KS and northwest MO
later this evening which could spread into central MO overnight,
possibly impacting the KC terminals. This may be an "all or nothing"
situation with storms possibly failing to materialize at all. Current
thinking is there is about a 40 percent chance that these storms
will develop, and will handle this uncertainty with a VCTS group for
now.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel






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