Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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109
FXUS63 KEAX 282014
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
314 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 314 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

Visible satellite imagery tracking a weak sfc trough/convergence zone
sinking south across the fcst area this afternoon...with latest radar
trends showing weak convective development along the feature east of
Route 65. Fortunately weak wind fields preclude much concern for
severe this afternoon and this thought should prevail through the
overnight hours despite the expectation for an organizing MCS (now
seen across south-central Nebraska) that will track southeast through
the Central Plains late this afternoon and evening. Latest high-res
models show the core of this activity remaining west of our fcst
area...however cannot rule out some lingering activity sliding into
our far western zones as it continues to track southeast with time.
Models in general show this feature merging in with a frontal
boundary stalled south of our region as the low-level jet increases
out of the southwest overnight...but again...best concentration of
activity should remain south and west of the area. In any
event...have increased pops ever so slightly across the KC Metro and
adjoining areas through the overnight period based on the above
reasoning.

The combination of continued northerly flow...along with lingering
cloud cover from overnight convection...and surface ridging nosing in
from the north...should result in slightly cooler temps on Friday as
highs climb into the low to mid 80s. Shwr/storm chances will continue
through the afternoon as the aforementioned front remains stalled to
our south...but most will see dry conditions through much of the day.
Heading into the weekend...the shwr/storm chances will continue just
about every period as northwest flow prevails over our area and a
front remains stalled south of our area. Periodic shortwave
disturbances should be able to provide enough support to keep the
threat for scattered storms in the forecast in an otherwise
moderately unstable airmass through Sunday night. Overall severe
threat continues to look low however as best wind fields remain west
of the fcst area. Beyond this...main concerns will again return to
the heat as upper ridging finally begins developing across the
Plains and the stalled front lifts north through the area Sunday
night into Monday. The combination of rising heights and strong warm
air adevection should support highs returning to the middle to
possibly even upper 90s across our area through much of next week.
From this vantage point...another period of long duration heat flags
appears likely.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

Main concerns going forward this afternoon involve renewed chances
for convection...especially during the overnight hours as an MCS
likely tracks southeast through the Central Plains. Prevailing thought
right now is that the bulk this activity will track from central
into southeastern Kansas...which agrees well with latest high-res
model guidance. As a result...have elected to hold off on a VCTS
mention for area terminals through the overnight...however radar
trends and later model runs may may facilitate an opposite approach
later on. For now though...confidence remains too low for inclusion.
Otherwise...VSBY restrictions possible once again at STJ during the
early morning hrs but increased cloud cover from Central Plains
convection may limit nocturnal cooling overnight. As a
result...have left restrictions in the MVFR category for now.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...32



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