000
FXUS63 KEAX 210438
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1138 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 113 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2017

Warm temps are expected for the remainder of the work week as modest
warm air advection continues underneath increasing zonal flow.
Precip-wise, just a very slight chance of SHRA or -TSRA as we
have very limited instability to work with,a CAP and no
forcing/support aloft. The better chances appear to be well west
and east of the CWA for later this afternoon and evening. Tomorrow
should be nearly a carbon copy of today, but with a better shot
at SHRA/TSRA tomorrow evening across our northern third as a low
amplitude short wave trough passing by to our north.

Of interest will be Thursday night into Friday as a cold front
moves in from the north as an amplifying upper wave translates
across the northern Plains and Great Lakes region. This should
allow much of the area to receive SHRA/TSRA during this time
frame. A severe threat doesn`t appear overly large as the region
has limited moisture to work with given the northerly low level
flow down to the GOM associated with surface ridging to our
southwest and TS Cindy. Something to keep an eye on as we move
closer in time. Speaking of TS Cindy, that should be pulled
northeast as the aforementioned trough moves by keeping what is
left of the system well southeast of the CWA.

Once the front moves through much cooler temps are in store for
the weekend and into the early work week. There maybe some
lingering precip chances on Saturday, but those should be light
and spotty in nature. Temps slowly modify back to normals going
into the following week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast. Latest radar and
satellite imagery showing the diffuse convergence line across
northern MO with isolated showers and ACCAS developing. With
strengthening southerly flow, this area should lift northward
through the overnight hours. So have kept the terminals dry with
only a scattered AC deck of clouds. Only mid to high level clouds
are expected tomorrow as low level moisture is very limited.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Pietrycha
Aviation...CDB