Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 120909

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
409 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2015

Issued at 409 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2015

The pleasant and nice weather from this weekend will persist
through the work week, though temperatures will be a bit closer to
normal. A rather flat pattern is in place across the Nation this
morning with a notable trough moving east along the Canadian border.
This trough is resposable for the cold front that is slowly sweeping
into northern Missouri early this morning. The front is not pushing
south very aggressively as the main trough driving it is moving east
leaving pressure rises behind the front across the Plains rather
modest. Still, the front will slow sweep across eastern Kansas and
northern Missouri this morning allowing some relatively cooler and
drier air, though still warmer than seasonal normal, to spread across
the region which will place our focus today on fire weather
conditions, the details of which you can find in the Fire Weather
section below.

In general, for the next several days, some slightly cooler air will
be filtering through the Plains behind a cold front that is sweeping
across the region today. However, "cooler" is a relative term as
absolute values will still be above seasonally normal readings with
highs in the 70s likely to persist through Thursday as the core of
the westerlies remains to our north. Otherwise, temperatures look to
cool off to around or just below normal at the end of the work week
and through the weekend as another dry cold front sweeps through the
Plains late Thursday. This late work week shot of cool air will
likely knock afternoon readings down into the 60s, with overnight
lows in the 30s. Frost is not currently expected, however interested
parties with frost concerns north of the Missouri River should start
paying attention to Saturday mornings forecast low.

Issued at 409 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2015

Conditions behind the cold front today will be quite a bit drier
than we have seen of late, as dewpoints are expected to drop from
around 60F to around 40F behind the front. This will be coincident
with strong winds; sustained northwest wind with speeds around 20MPH
gusting to 30MPH by this afternoon. However, while available fuels
have begun to dry out the lack of a frost or freeze as of yet has
left much of the fuel bed still a bit green, so fuels are not
currently critical at this time. Putting all this together you get
weather conditions that will border on critical thresholds but fine
fuels that are not. Therefore will hold off on any specific fire
product for now and highlight the issue in a Special Weather
Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015

Cold front is close to St. Joe and will push through the KC area
through the next couple of hours. No precipitation will occur with
the front, nor even any clouds for that matter. Expect northwest
winds behind the front with occasional gusts to near 25 kt during the


.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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