Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 292054
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
354 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 353 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

Post-frontal activity has diminished over the CWA as the cold front
continues to push south over southern Missouri and northern
Arkansas. Behind the boundary, northeasterly winds will continue
bring dry air into the region as surface high pressure moves in from
the northwest. As a result, dew points will top off in the low to
mid 60`s, making for much more pleasant conditions throughout the
next few days. Afternoon highs will reach the mid 80`s Wednesday
afternoon and Thursday, gradually increasing to the upper 80`s by
Friday.

A shortwave trough on the periphery of the southern ridge axis will
trigger convective activity over central Kansas and southern
Missouri on Thursday. Surface high pressure should keep this
development out of the area, though the extreme southern CWA could
see thunderstorm development Thursday morning. A deepening trough
currently positioned over southwest Ontario and extending south into
the Northern Plains will continue to undergo development through the
end of the work week. This in turn, will cause the ridge over the
Southern Plains to retrograde by Friday evening, bringing northwest
flow over the CWA once again. As the upper-level trough moves
southeast near the Great Lakes, a cold front will approach northern
Missouri Friday night into Saturday morning. This could trigger
convection during the overnight hours, though models are in
disagreement with the southern extent of the frontal boundary. With
existing saturated surface conditions, flooding issues over northern
Missouri could become an issue. However, dry air near the surface
and below the mid-levels should help to mitigate any flooding
potential along this frontal boundary. As the weekend progresses,
additional convective activity is possible as several shortwave
features affect the area.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

The start of the weekend should continue to be benign as compared to
recent patterns and trends, although model discrepancies are
becoming evident from the start of the long-term, particularly in
the lower third of the atmosphere. What can be agreed upon is
general northwesterly flow aloft with perturbations running through
the overall flow. Additionally, does appear that a frontal boundary
will provide a focus for convection chances early next week with
unsettled weather returning in general by the middle of next week.
Models really disagree at the end of this forecast period with the
upper-level pattern but are fairly consistent in showing the
unsettled weather chances between each other as convection fires up
along the periphery of ridging.

As for temperatures, they will be rather seasonable with highs in
the upper 80s to lower 90s and overnight lows in the 60s and 70s. At
this time, there is no clear indication that the humidity/dewpoints
will drive afternoon heat indices back up to where they`ve been in
recent weeks but it is still too far out to have decent confidence
in those details. Moisture return looks meager compared to past
events, with hints of PWATs remaining closer toward seasonal
climatology.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

Residual low-level clouds should continue to dissipate as the early
afternoon progresses. Surface high pressure will keep conditions dry
through the period as nearby activity continues to diminish. Mid-
level clouds over Kansas should move over the region through the
afternoon, before finally lifting through the evening hours. There is
some potential for MVFR fog development at KSTJ early Thursday,
given the saturated surface coupled with weak winds. Otherwise winds
will vary overnight before picking up out of the southwest by the
end of the period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Welsh
LONG TERM...lg
AVIATION...Welsh


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