000
FXUS63 KEAX 051138
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
538 AM CST Thu Dec 5 2013

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 316 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

Light snow showers will continue to taper off early this morning as
a weakening frontal band sinks southeast and the lower atmosphere
continues to dry out. Any additional snowfall accumulation with this
early morning system should be less than a tenth of an inch at most
locations.

The main concern in the short term will be additional snow chances
this evening through Friday afternoon as a shortwave trough lifts
out of the southern Plains and overrides the existing, slow moving
frontogenesis over portions of northern AR and southern MO. Model
agreement is generally high on the dynamics and moisture associated
with this system, and keep most measurable snowfall along and south
of the southern CWA border. Some lift will still be present over the
CWA with non-zero midlevel frontogenesis and at least some of the
energy from the shortwave trough; however, advection of dry air
throughout the profile will prevent saturation even as temperatures
cool over the region, except on the southern and southeastern border
of the forecast area where shallow saturation is possible around
800-700 mb late tonight into early Friday morning. Have included a
chance of a few flurries to give a bit of wiggle room for where the
shallow saturation may occur especially with favorable dynamics, but
expect any accumulating snow to occur in a very narrow corridor in
our forecast area. Amounts will vary sharply from a trace to nearly
an inch over tens of miles, but no location in the CWA should see
much more than an inch when all is said and done.

As frontogenesis pushes southward on Friday, any chances for light
snowfall will quickly taper off during the afternoon hours, leaving
behind chilly and temporarily quiet conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

Primary concern in the medium/long range period is
precipitation/snowfall potential Sunday and the continued bitterly
cold temperatures. After a lull in the weather for Friday night and
Saturday, confidence is increasing for light accumulating snowfall
across most of the forecast area beginning Saturday night and ending
Sunday night as an upper disturbance moves across the area. While
differences still exist with the various model outputs, a recent
theme has been confining the best lift and respective highest QPF
over the northern 2/3rds of the forecast area, generally along and
north of the I-70 corridor. Preliminary total snowfall accumulations
are forecasted to range from 1 to 3 inches over the area, with the
higher amounts residing in the northern half of the CWA. With this
system still several days away, additional sampling to resolve
driving mechanisms and vertical moisture content will allow for a
better refinement of snowfall amounts, timing, and locations within
subsequent forecasts.

As for temperatures, a bitterly cold and persistent airmass will
remain over the region into middle next week. Saturday morning and
Tuesday morning look particularly chilly with morning low
temperatures in the single digits. Anticipated snow cover may
exacerbate cold airmass Monday and Tuesday. High temperatures each
day will only reach the teens and 20s, with a return to readings
near the freezing mark on Thursday. Wind chill readings are expected
to fall to near or below zero several nights in the extended
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 538 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

VFR conditions are expected to persist across most of the region
this morning through the afternoon, before MVFR ceilings begin to
build in from the southeast this evening. A few light snow showers
are possible across far southern and southeastern portions of the
forecast area this evening through the end of the TAF period, but
should not impact any of the TAF sites. Northwest winds will remain
sustained at 10 to 15 kts through this evening, then will gradually
diminish Friday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...Laflin