Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 190833

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
333 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Issued at 333 AM CDT THU OCT 19 2017

Operational models remain consistent and as such very little change
has been made to the forecast. With southwesterly flow becoming
established and the forecast area residing in a broad warm sector,
the warm temperatures already experienced this week will continue
for the next three days. Afternoon readings will comfortably reach
the 70s each day, some 10-15 degrees above normal. Weather-wise, a
strong pressure gradient will develop across the Plains states on
Friday into Saturday with surface high pressure anchored over the
Appalachians and a lee trough forming over the High Plains. This
will bring breezy conditions on Friday and Saturday, along with an
increase in moisture with dewpoints returning to the 60s by
Saturday. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be
possible by late Friday night into Saturday morning as a 50 kt, H85
low-level jet and insentropic ascent materialize over the forecast
area. The main focus will be on a cold front as it sweeps through
the area late Saturday afternoon and evening, corresponding to
widespread showers and thunderstorms. With strong linear forcing and
upper ascent in place, confidence is growing that a squall line will
develop during the mid to late afternoon hours over far northwest
Missouri into eastern Kansas. While the greatest reservoir of
instability will be located to the southwest of the forecast area in
southeast Kansas into Oklahoma, sufficient instability is anticipated
to be in place to support convection in the strong shear
environment. The degree and geographic corridor of instability will
be later determined by the amount of destabilization that can
occur, especially with some potential of pre-frontal showers and
thunderstorms during the day on Saturday. That said, vertical wind
shear will be more than sufficient to support robust convection, and
the strong near-unidirectional wind fields and linear nature of
convection yields some concern for damaging wind gusts. Currently,
the greatest threat for severe storms is across the southwestern
half of the CWA.

The cold front will push through the CWA Saturday night, with some
lingering post-frontal precipitation during the overnight hours.
Still, the progressive nature should clear rain out of the area
before or shortly after sunrise Sunday for most areas, with clouds
clearing and a return of the sun by midday Sunday. Cooler and drier
air will advect into the region, with another reinforcing shot by
Tuesday as a large upper trough amplifies and digs into the
central/eastern CONUS. The end result will bring back high
temperatures closer to seasonal averages.


.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT WED OCT 18 2017

VFR conditions expected through the forecast with light south
winds overnight and into the day tomorrow. The one exception may
be KSTJ where overnight temperatures in the mid 40s and calm winds
may promote some river valley fog around sunrise.




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