Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 210429

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1129 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Issued at 611 PM CDT MON MAR 20 2017

Latest surface analysis had the cold front south of the forecast
area, extending from central Illinois to south central Kansas at
19Z. The front will move slowly a little further south into southern
Missouri and northern Oklahoma by Tuesday morning. This evening will
start out with mostly clear skies and gradually cooling temperatures
as winds remain from the north to northeast around 10 mph. Later
tonight after midnight expect an increase in clouds as isentropic
lift on the 305K surface transports moisture northeast over the
stalled frontal boundary in southern Missouri. Currently most of the
area will remain dry with an increasing chance of showers after 3 AM
mainly south of a Paola, KS to Sedalia, MO line. Models also show a
weak wave moving across southern Missouri Tuesday morning. Further
north across Iowa and northern Missouri another wave will move
southeast in the northwest upper flow during the day. Models show an
area of frontogenetic forcing developing north of of the Highway 36
corridor northward into Iowa. best chances will be from Mercer
County through Adair by late morning and afternoon. Precipitation
chances will diminish during the mid to late afternoon as the
forcing moves off to the east. Lows tonight will range from near 40
along the Iowa border to the lower 50s south. Highs on Tuesday will
be cooler than today with readings in the 50s amid clouds and
northeast winds.

The long term period is quite active in terms of multiple storm
systems crossing the region. This will also feature multiple
fronts and temperature swings in association with these storm

The first system is a vort max moving out of the northwest from
Nebraska toward northern Missouri. Expect one or more bands of
frontogenetical lift to result in banded precipitation while warm
advection from the south may result scattered showers from eastern
Kansas into Missouri. The northern precipitation may be in an
airmass cold enough to support a rain snow mix, but will be
primarily dependent on how intense the precip falls. If precip is
heavier within a band, there is a better chance of snowflakes
reaching the ground. In the end, this snow potential is rather low
and warm ground temperatures should preclude any accumulation.

Upper ridging builds into the region for Thursday with increasing
warm and moisture advection into the region. The low levels will
remain cool but expect eventual saturation to result in potential
for light drizzle or rain, and there are indications that elevated
parcels may be supportive of an area elevated thunderstorms. The
best chance for thunderstorm activity seems to be late Wednesday
night into early Thursday from east central Kansas into northern
Missouri. If storms develop, there may be a small chance for some
hail but will depend on how impressive elevated instability/shear
profiles become.

A powerful storm system ejects into the Plains late Thursday into
Friday but becomes vertically stacked and occluded over Kansas.
There appears to be a very good chance for precipitation, with
thunderstorms likely as well. Wind shear will be strong but wind
profiles are very meridional and expect convective interaction to
minimize overall severe threat. This may result in some moderate
to heavy rain at times though which will be largely welcome across
the area. If there is a chance of strong to severe storms, it may
focus in the form of low-topped supercells on Friday as the
surface and upper lows cross central and eastern Kansas. The main
question is how far east the instability will extend, and current
indications are that the bulk of instability will hold west of the
KS/MO border. As the storm system passes through, additional
precip will wrap around the north and northwest quadrants of the
upper low and expect a cold rain at this time with upper
temperatures probably too warm to support snow.

Another impressive but quick-hitting system will cross the region
on Monday but it appears that moisture may be limited. Will want
to monitor moisture return from the gulf, and if dewpoints can
make it into the 60s, may have to monitor for severe potential.
Another powerful storm system is likely to impact the region by
the middle of next week.


.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1122 PM CDT MON MAR 20 2017

VFR conditions will persist over the terminals through the
forecast period. High pressure well north will continue to settle
southward and maintain northeasterly winds through Tuesday
evening. Building cloud cover is expected with time, though
ceilings will remain VFR and precip should hold outside of the
terminal areas Tuesday morning.




Discussion...NWS TOP
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