Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 130515
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1115 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 244 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2018

Northerly flow at the surface is keeping a steady stream of cool
air trickling into the area. Despite ample sunshine temperatures
have struggled to reach 20 degrees, with some locations not even
making it to 15 degrees this afternoon. To the northwest there is
some very light snow making its way into the northwest part of the
state, generated within a weak shortwave. Forecast soundings
across the area indicate some saturation in the H7 to H8 layer
with pretty dry air beneath that layer. There could be a few snow
flurries that survive that dry air. Not anticipating much, if any,
in the way of accumulation from this activity.

Two rounds of precipitation will be possible later this weekend,
the first in response to a quickly moving clipper that pushes
through the area Sunday morning. Expect a few hours of very light
snow through the morning into the afternoon hours on Sunday. It
will struggle to find some moisture, so QPF amounts are expected
to be below a tenth of an inch. With the very cold air mass in
place snow ratios will be in the 15 to 20:1 range, which could
result in around an inch of snow Sunday. Some areas could see
slightly higher amounts, perhaps reaching 2 inches, but generally
looking at around an inch with this Sunday activity. The second
round of snow will likely come Monday morning, into Monday
afternoon. Low/mid level frontogenesis associated with another plunging
mass of cold air, along with a lobe of mid level ascent will be
responsible for another quick hitting round of light snow. Once
again, moisture will be at a premium and duration of the event
will be rather short, so QPF will be on the order of around a
tenth of an inch, resulting in perhaps another 1 to 2 inches of
snow. All together the Sunday and Monday light snow events could
result in 1 to 3 inches of snow across most of the area.

Cold air remains in place through at least Thursday, perhaps as
late as Friday, before another push of warm air reaches the area.
Tuesday morning will be the coldest morning across the area, with
northern Missouri dropping well below zero, and areas along and
south of the MO River perhaps dropping to around zero. Light winds
will make wind chills on Tuesday morning drop to around 25 below
zero in northern Missouri, with 15 below zero closer to the MO
River/I-70 corridor. Models have been fairly consistent with a
push of warm air ahead of another mid level and low level trough
late next week. At this point it doesn`t look like this will be a
high impact weather maker, considering the warm temperatures, but
much can change in the next 5 to 7 days, so will keep an eye on
how the system evolves.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1109 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2018

Low to mid-level stratus will continue to advect overhead tonight
from the northwest, though ample dry air beneath 5kft will
maintain VFR conditions through the forecast period. Increasing
low level moisture will commence Saturday night ahead of the next
wintry storm system. Precipitation should hold off until Sunday
morning after the 06Z time frame.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Leighton
Aviation...Welsh



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