Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 211741
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1241 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 311 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

High pressure centered over Iowa will be the dominant weather feature
today, keeping temperatures near normal and skies mostly clear aside
from some cirrus spilling in from the north. A weak vort max dropping
through this evening could spark off a few showers or storms,
primarily across eastern/central KS where an elevated warm front will
be lifting northeastward. This boundary will reach the KS/MO border
overnight, but by this time the upper wave will have passed through
and is unlikely to bring much if any precipitation to the region.

Warm front lifting through on Sunday will bring temperatures back
into the upper 70s/near 80, though the more noticeable impact will
be a rapid increase in humidity with dewpoints reaching the mid and
even upper 60s by late afternoon. This moisture will then set the
stage for a more active weather pattern heading into next week as the
upper pattern transitions into broad southwesterly flow across much
of the nation. Several weak disturbances within this flow pattern
will likely bring numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms
through much of the week, the first arriving as early as Monday
afternoon and overnight. Despite increasing instability through the
week (CAPE values possibly exceeding 3000-4000 J/kg by mid-week),
tropospheric flow won`t really increase until Weds night into Thurs
as the trough to the west nudges eastward a bit. Thus, wind shear and
overall severe thunderstorm potential look fairly limited through
Tuesday, although some strong storms and/or heavy rain could still be
a possibility due to the instability/moisture alone. Increasing winds
aloft may support a more organized severe potential by Wednesday
night and particularly Thursday/Friday. That is of course still a
ways out so we`ll have to wait to get into any specifics.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

VFR conditions expected through the fcst period as high pressure and
dry air remains over the area this afternoon. Fcst models still
suggesting isolated shwr/storms over central KS later
today/tonight...but majority if not all activity will remain south
and west of area terminals. Lgt southeast winds between 4-8 kts
expected this afternoon and overnight before speeds slowly
increase after 15z.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Hawblitzel
Aviation...32



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