Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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559
FXUS63 KEAX 180903
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
403 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 326 AM CDT MON SEP 18 2017

Southeasterly flow at the surface this morning helping advect some
moist air into the area, ahead of a shortwave trough, which will
push through the area today. PWAT values are rather high - in the
1.50 to 2.00 inch range - due to a connection to the EPAC and
tropical storm Norma. These high PWAT values will make any rain
today rather efficient in its accumulation production. Widespread
rain should move into the area from the west, perhaps as early as
15z, but more likely toward the 18z to 21z time period. NAM
indicates that the trough axis will likely reach the MO/KS border
around 18z to 21z, which will likely bring the period of heaviest
rain to eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Given the high PWAT
values, decent mid level support for ascent expect perhaps some
areas of 1+ inch amounts. As the trough progresses toward the
north and east expect the chances for rain to increase toward the
north and east with its progression. Given the early arrival of
the trough and cloudy conditions instability will likely be
limited, thus the concern for severe storms will be minimal. That
being said, should there be any clearings ahead of the trough,
perhaps east of KC toward central Missouri, it could lead to some
stronger updrafts, and perhaps an isolated strong storm or two,
capable of producing small hail and gusty winds.

Despite the broad trough to the west, and the southwest flow
aloft, there does not appear to be much in the way of appreciable
chance for rain through the mid week. Models have since backed off
a bit on the eastward spread of the large trough and it`s ascent,
so the bulk of the forecast area will likely remain under low flow
at the mid levels and perhaps even some shortwave ridging between
the tropical system off the Atlantic coast and the large upper
trough over the NE CONUS. Should the trough make a little progress
eastward and break down the ridge more than models anticipate
there could be a few chances for rain this week, but for now will
go with a predominantly dry forecast through the week. In the
meantime, expect temperatures to be on the warm side, with highs
in the middle to upper 80s, as the area remains under the
localized ridging. Higher chances for rain appear toward the
weekend or early next week as a cold front pushes into the area.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1055 PM CDT SUN SEP 17 2017

The period will start off VFR for all locations but this will
change quickly as an area of lower moisture and precipitation
push into the area Monday morning. The lower MVFR ceilings will
push into the area ahead of the precipitation with some IFR
possibilities up near KSTJ near sunrise. Showers and thunderstorms
will start to push into the area around 15Z and may impact the
lower ceilings to make them temporarily lower with added moisture
in the lower levels. This band of precipitation is expected to
move out of the TAF areas and into central Missouri by late
afternoon. Ceilings should start to improve from west to east and
south to north indicated that KIXD will clear first and KSTJ will
clear last. By the late afternoon all TAF locations should be
relatively precipitation free and VFR.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Leighton
Aviation...Barham



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