Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 241743

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1243 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Issued at 344 AM CDT MON APR 24 2017

Another dry day with temperatures in the mid to upper 70s is in
store for today. The surface high responsible, however, continues
to move to the east as a surface low is starting to take form
over the Rockies. This will tighten the pressure gradient over our
area, producing sustained southerly winds at 20-25 kts today with
gusts between 30-35 kts through sunset.

Tuesday, an active weather pattern begins which will give us on
and off storm chances through the weekend. Early Tuesday morning,
a positively tilted upper level trough will slide east from the
Pacific Northwest, providing upper level support for the
aforementioned developing surface low. This, in addition to an 850
mb low-level jet, and surface warm front, will help create rain
chances Tuesday morning in northern KS and northwest MO.
Instability should be limited during this time; therefore, only
rain showers are expected. Warm air advection will strengthen over
the area as the day goes on, helping increase temperatures into
the upper 70s and low 80s south of I-70 and low to mid 70s north
of I-70. This will also help create instability Tuesday
afternoon/evening. A cap will be in place for most of the day
though until the surface low moves into eastern KS and the
associated cold front enters northwest MO Tuesday evening and
sweeps through KS and MO. In addition, the upper level trough will
deepen providing more energy. This all creates a chance for more
widespread showers and storms and the potential for severe weather
Tuesday evening into the overnight hours. Severe weather is
possible in areas south of HWY 36 in MO and southeast of I-35 in
MO and KS. Both MUCAPE and SBCAPE values are between 1500 J/kg and
2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km bulk shear between 50 kts and 60 kts, and
dewpoints near 60F. The primary concerns with the severe weather
potential right now are large hail and isolated damaging winds.

After the frontal passage, temperatures will drop to below normal,
with highs Wednesday only expected to be in the 50s and low 60s. In
addition, post-frontal showers are increasingly likely and could
last through most of the day Wednesday. We will see a break from
the showers and storms for much of Thursday until a broad upper
level trough from the northern Rockies sends energy pulses this
way Thursday evening ahead of a developing surface low. The upper
level trough and surface low will strengthen in the
Friday/Saturday time frame, producing showers and storms over MO
and KS for most of the weekend. There is potential for severe
weather and flooding concerns with this system. The system should
exit the area early next week.


.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT MON APR 24 2017

Gusty winds will persist until around 00z, then gradually diminish
overnight. There will be some strong low level winds around 2000
feet around 35 kts, with a little bit of veering with height, but
with surface winds around 10 to 15 knots the concern for Low level
wind shear is marginal. Will readdress it in the upcoming
issuances this evening.




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