Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 230826
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
326 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016
Issued at 324 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016
Very little has changed with expectations for the remainder of the
weekend and work week ahead. Outside of one weather maker Tuesday
night into Wednesday, little appreciable weather will be noted with
above normal temperatures continuing.
Temperatures this morning are starting warm, with readings roughly
10 degrees above our average lows. With a H85 thermal axis of +17C
aligning across the CWA by midday with mostly sunny skies, a very
pleasant fall day is expected with afternoon temperatures in the
lower to middle 70s. A surface cold front currently located over
southeast Nebraska is projected to move through the forecast area
during the afternoon hours, becoming stationary just south of the
CWA by Monday morning. No precipitation or even low clouds will be
noted with the passage of this feature. Slightly cooler temperatures
closer to normal levels are expected on Monday as high pressure
building over the western Great Lakes influences our weather.
The frontal boundary will lift back north of the area on Tuesday as
a warm front in response to pressure falls with an approaching upper
wave, returning warmth and moisture back into the region. With
increasing moisture advection and ascent, may see some scattered
convection during the daylight hours Tuesday over northern Missouri.
Otherwise, models continue to be consistent in bringing in the upper
wave and associated cold front into the Central Plains on Tuesday.
Chances still look good for precipitation across the area along and
ahead of the cold front as it slides through the CWA late Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning. The probability for strong storms
remains low for our area at this time. Lingering showers will end
from west to east during Wednesday afternoon, with all precipitation
ending before sunset. Dry weather follows in behind the front on
Wednesday, but temperatures will only slightly cooler thanks in part
to the Pacific maritime origin of the upper wave, with overall
readings still remaining above normal through the end of the week.
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1049 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2016
The area will remain under VFR conditions throughout the period with
winds out of the south around 10mph. A low level jet with winds 40kts
at 2000ft will be in place through 12z creating LLWS from the
southwest over most the terminals. A dry cold front will push through
the region tomorrow afternoon switching wind direction to the NW for
the end of the period.