Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 242054
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
354 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

Inverted surface trough sits off to the west of the forecast area,
over central Kansas. Ahead of this trough southerly winds persist
across the area bringing good warm air advection into the forecast
area. Along with the good southerly flow good insolation has brought
temperatures across the area well into the 90s. Moist conditions,
characterized by dew points in the 60s and 70s have contributed to
muggy conditions, bringing heat index values up into the 100 to 105
degree range. The axis of the aforementioned surface trough runs
generally SW to NE from KGBD to KOMA. Along this axis resides a
fairly weak boundary, characterized by a wind shift. This boundary
should remain relatively stationary through the rest of the
afternoon/evening, but could play role in some scattered showers
later this evening. Satellite imagery indicates a couple ares of
some cumulus clouds along the convergence axis in C and NE Kansas.
Given these trends, as well as short range hi-res model guidance, it
appears a few areas of showers will form along that convergence line
where current VIS shows this area of CU. The best chance for rain
this evening and overnight will reside across the far NE KS and NW
MO area, with no severe weather anticipated.

The aforementioned low level boundary will likely remain fairly
stationary for the next couple days, at least through Monday into
Tuesday. For Monday, another very warm day appears likely for a
majority of the forecast area. Little change is expected to the
overall setup, and a similar air mass looks to be in place for
Monday, resulting in temperatures once again racing upward well into
90 degree range, with some spots perhaps reaching 100 degrees. While
deep mixing should occur enough moisture will be present to cause
heat index values to rise into the 100 to 105 degree range. As a
result the heat advisory will continue through Monday. Another round
of showers and thunderstorms will be possible again on Monday,
mainly associated with the surface stationary boundary that should
reside in the far NW corner of MO through the early part of the work
week.

Going into mid week, there could be a bit of a pattern change.
Tuesday also appears to be on the warm side, especially along and
south of HWY 36. The mid level ridge will flatten out by Tuesday,
allowing for better flow over the forecast area. The surface ridge
north of the previously mentioned boundary will slide ever so
slightly to the south, perhaps putting the boundary completely in
the forecast area. This will cause rain chances to go up through the
early to mid week period. This could also allow portions of northern
Missouri to be covered with enough clouds, and see enough rain to
bring some relief from the stretch of heat. Areas south of HWY 36
will likely still see very warm/muggy conditions through Tuesday as
it`s unlikely the boundary will slide far enough south to bring said
relief. Could conceivably drag the heat advisory out another day,
but with uncertainty regarding the placement of the boundary, will
hold off on extending the advisory for now.

As we advance into the middle part of next week the chances for rain
will be on the increase as a weak shortwave trough approaches the
area. Timing and location of boundaries and mid level features still
evade good consensus, so will nail down more details as we approach,
but the better chances for widespread rain appear to arrive in the
Thursday/Friday period, perhaps lasting into the weekend. Along with
the better rain chances should come a bit of a break from the heat
as temps should remain in the lower to middle 80s for the end of the
week into the weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

VFR conditions expected through the remainder of the forecast period.
Occasional wind gusts are anticipated at all the terminals through
around 00z, before diurnal decoupling will cause those gusts to shut
down for the overnight and morning period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT Monday FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT Monday FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-
     020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton






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