Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 222314
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
614 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016
Issued at 324 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016
Upper level ridging building into the Central US will maintain quiet
conditions tonight and tomorrow while temperatures remain well above
average. Despite the ridge building in overhead, a subtle backing of
the low-level flow will result in temperatures on Friday that are a
degree or two cooler than today. This will still be well above
average though with highs in the middle and upper 80s.
GFS and ECMWF are coming into better alignment on this weekend`s
system which is now forecast to enter the area as a more progressive
upper wave. This will result in a cold front making slow but steady
eastward progress across the area Saturday night and Sunday. The more
progressive nature of this system has reduced the potential for
widespread heavy rainfall, especially with limited instability
cutting back on the potential for strong or long-lived thunderstorms.
Still, deep convergence ahead of the front and along the front itself
combined with steady isentropic lift and deep tropospheric moisture
could result in several waves of moderate to occasionally heavy rain
Saturday night and Sunday with total rainfall amounts in the 1 to 2
inch range. A few areas could see amounts a bit higher than this.
Monday and Tuesday could bring a few post-frontal showers with the
deep upper trough settling into the region, otherwise expect general
drying conditions next week with temperatures finally starting to
feel like autumn. By Monday highs could struggle to reach 70 degrees
while temperatures Monday night drop into the upper 40s and lower
50s. Temperatures will slowly moderate into the middle 70s through
the remainder of the week.
.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 612 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016
VFR conditions are expected through the forecast with only a few to
scattered high level clouds. Winds will generally be from the south
at 10kts or less.