Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 152303
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
603 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 229 PM CDT SUN OCT 15 2017

High pressure has built in quickly after the passing cold front
last night ushering in cooler air, clear skies, and a brisk NW
airflow. This colder airmass will keep most of the area from
reaching 60F this afternoon and lead to very cool temperatures
tonight with low temperatures ranging from the mid 30s in northern
Missouri to the low 40s in southern Missouri. Clear skies and
lighter winds tonight have the potential to form frost conditions
over the Missouri river valley in NW Missouri leading to a frost
advisory for that area near sunrise. The surface high pressure
over the central plains will shift to the south allowing a shift
in winds to the south and a slight warm up on Monday with temps in
the mid to upper 60s. Upper level ridging will build into the
area Monday and last through the end of the week keeping our area
dry for the work week. The southerly flow will add some warm air
advection to the area each day with temperatures gradually
climbing into the lower to mid 70s by the end of the week.

The ridging will finally push off to the east as a deep shortwave
trough enters the west coast Saturday. This wave will move
quickly into the plains Saturday afternoon helping to trigger a
push of colder air down through the plains that sets up a backdoor
cold front Saturday night into Sunday. This boundary will
increase PoPs over the area Sunday morning, but as of now the
severe potential looks weak. This boundary will quickly move to
the south clearing out by Sunday afternoon as ridging builds back
into the area and dropping temperatures into the upper 60s again.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 602 PM CDT SUN OCT 15 2017

Sky clear forecast for the next 24 hours. Winds will shift from
the north to the southwest in the next 3 to 6 hours, but winds
will remain rather light through the change in direction.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Frost Advisory from 5 AM to 8 AM CDT Monday for KSZ025-102.

MO...Frost Advisory from 5 AM to 8 AM CDT Monday for MOZ001>004-011-
     012.

&&

$$

Discussion...Barham
Aviation...Leighton


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