Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 250829

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
329 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Issued at 327 AM CDT TUE APR 25 2017

Today will be another fairly windy day, as a surface low in
western KS approaches eastern KS/western MO. At the upper levels,
a trough is deepening over the western CONUS, ejecting energy over
the Central Plains. These features in conjunction with an 850 mb
low- level jet are already producing some light precipitation in
eastern KS and NE. This will move northeast, clipping northeast KS
and northwestern MO. By late morning, everyone should be dry.
Warm air advection will increase this afternoon, helping
temperatures reach the 70s and even low 80s in the southern half
of KS/MO and eastern half of MO.

Our attention then turns to the storm and severe weather chances
this evening into the overnight hours for eastern KS and
western/central MO. The WAA will help create sufficient
instability across the entire area (1500-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE and
SBCAPE), but a moderate cap will be in place for most of the day
until the cold front associated with the system enters MO/KS and
breaks the cap this evening. Moisture will not be lacking as
dewpoints climb into the upper 50s, and low 60s. Finally, the 0-6
km shear will also be sufficient, with values between 50 and 60
kts. The shear vectors are mostly parallel to the cold front;
therefore, some discrete cells may develop initially but a linear
system will be the dominate storm mode. High Res models are
indicating convective initiation should start around 7 PM along
I-35 in eastern KS and move east into MO. The primary threats
today are large hail and damaging winds. The tornado threat can`t
be completely ruled out, but is minimal at this time. Once the
cold front moves through, the severe weather threat will diminish
but post-frontal showers and a few non-severe storms will be
likely, especially south and east of I-35. They should last
through most of the day Wednesday.

We will see a break from the rain Thursday, but on and off
showers and storms return Friday through Sunday. A broad trough
over the northern Rockies will begin to deepen while a surface low
will develop over the southern Rockies. This system will
eventually move into the Central Plains creating a surface
boundary that will be the focal point for the weekend showers and
storms. Right now, it appears to settle south of I-70, producing
several round of fairly heavy rain. There is plenty of time though
for the location and timing for this system to change.

The weekend system should exit the area by Monday as a surface
high settles in behind it. This is short-lived though as another
rain maker sets up for Tuesday/Wednesday.


.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1117PM CDT MON APR 24 2017

VFR conditions will prevail for the majority of the TAF period
until a frontal boundary pushes through after 00Z. Scattered
showers are expected to form along the MO/KS border around 00Z
with thunderstorms expected to form up a few hours later as the
front starts to progress to the east. MVFR ceilings will accompany
the frontal boundary and thunderstorms after 03Z. The exact
location of the thunderstorm development still has some
uncertainty leading to VCTS being utilized to show this potential
timing for the time being.




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