Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 052338

638 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015

Issued at 236 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015

Low-level moisture trapped underneath a ridge axis over the Central
Plains will stay in place through much of the afternoon and evening
hours. This, combined with northeasterly winds will keep afternoon
highs in the mid 60s across most of the CWA. Have lowered afternoon
temperatures across the southeastern CWA where extensive cloud cover
has moderated surface heating. With surface high pressure remaining
in place along with persistent light, northerly winds overnight,
conditions will once again be favorable for isolated fog development
across northwest to north central Missouri early Tuesday morning. A
few sprinkles are possible across north central Missouri overnight
due to lingering low-level moisture.

A well-defined blocking pattern with a deep mid-level low over the
southeastern CONUS working opposite a deepening low over the western
CONUS will remain in place through Tuesday. As the ridge axis above
the Central Plains approaches the area, low-level stratus will begin
to dissipate through Tuesday afternoon as dry air enters the region.
As the surface high continues to push eastward, southerly flow will
bring a warming trend, particularly Wednesday and Thursday with
afternoon highs topping of in the upper 70s to low 80s. The ridge
will eventually erode as the southwestern trough continues to deepen
by the mid-week. This will then lead to a cutoff low diving into
Mexico with a longwave trough developing over the Northern Plains.
At the surface, a cold front will approach northwest Missouri late
Wednesday night. Sufficient moisture ahead of the front will aid in
the development of scattered showers beginning late Wednesday and
extending into much of Thursday. The greatest forcing looks to
remain north of the I-70 corridor, though precipitation will
generally form along the entire boundary, with possible isolated
development south of I-70. Weak instability may be sufficient to
produce some embedded thunderstorms along the cold front, though
this should remain isolated.

Surface high pressure will quickly fill in behind the front
beginning Friday, with a cold air mass dropping temperatures back
into the mid 60s heading into the weekend. However, WAA will then
bring temperatures back into the low 80s by the latter half of the
weekend as ridging begins to build over the Southern Plains heading
into next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 638 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015

This is a low-confidence forecast, with high uncertainty regarding
the potential for IFR or LIFR conditions again around sunrise. If
clouds are able to clear out a bit then very low visibilities and/or
low clouds could redevelop. For now, there seems to be a better
chance that MVFR clouds will stay fairly thick and prevent conditions
from getting much worse overnight. Will monitor trends closely.




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