Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 192306

506 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2014

Issued at 302 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

Quiet conditions are expected over at least the next 36 hours as
northwest flow aloft begins to gradually shift eastward and surface
high pressure drifts across the central - eastern Plains. Another
chilly night is expected as skies clear and surface winds diminish,
with lows expected to dip into the teens throughout the CWA. Highs
tomorrow will remain below normal but a bit warmer than previous
days due to more abundant sunshine but weak mixing.

As the high departs Thursday night, southerly flow will begin to
increase ahead of a developing system in the desert Southwest,
allowing moisture to surge into the region by Friday morning. Patchy
freezing drizzle is still possible early Friday morning as this
moisture filters over subfreezing surface temperatures, but models
are a little slower with moisture arrival and may hold off until
surface temperatures are able to warm above the freezing mark. For
now, have kept a mention of patchy freezing drizzle prior to 10 AM
Friday south of I-70, but do not anticipate any real impacts at this

The system over the desert SW will lift up into the southern Plains
by Saturday and into Missouri by Sunday, bringing with it several
rounds of rain showers from Friday afternoon through Sunday night.
The best chances for rain and highest potential rainfall amounts
will be across southeastern portions of the forecast area, but most
areas should see at least some isolated showers this weekend. MUCAPE
values are at a maximum around ~30 J/kg in far southeastern portions
of the CWA so have elected not to mention a possibility of thunder
in the forecast, but one or two rumbles of thunder are not
completely out of the question in central MO on Saturday. Highs are
still expected to reach the 50s both Saturday and Sunday as warm air
advects ahead of the trough, which will be the warmest conditions
seen since November 10th.

Another system will drop out of the northern Plains on Sunday,
driving a surface cold front through the CWA by Sunday afternoon or
evening, and then eventually merging with the SW system over eastern
MO. Cold air will begin to wrap in behind the systems as they join
forces late this weekend, but should not arrive in MO until Monday
when most moisture has swept eastward out of the region. A few snow
showers are possible Monday as the cold air arrives and very limited
moisture wraps around the back side of the low, but warm ground and
light QPF should prevent any snow accumulation.

Model agreement is still very poor in the wake of the weekend`s
system, so have tapered precipitation chances off Monday night and
not reintroduced any PoPs for the remainder of the forecast period.
Temperatures will drop early next week, but any recovery back to
near normal temperatures and/or any potential for additional
precipitation remains uncertain.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 505 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

VFR conditions expected through the period. Light winds will initially
become more westerly through Wednesday evening, while becoming
variable early Thursday. Will see clear skies until a shallow low-
level layer moves in with the wind transition.




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