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000
FXUS63 KEAX 190505
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1205 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.Update...
Issued at 1019 PM CDT MON SEP 18 2017

Have issued a dense fog advisory for areas of central to northern
and northeastern Missouri. Observations and GOES-16 microphysics
RGB composite imagery show fog developing in this area. Forecast
soundings suggest fog should persist through a few hours after
sunrise.

&&

.Discussion...
Issued at 340 PM CDT MON SEP 18 2017

Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a rather flat pattern
currently in place across the country; though that wont last long
according to the latest forecast guidance. Of note on water vapor
imagery this afternoon; both Jose and Norma are evident off the
Atlantic coast and Baja peninsula, respectively; while a large
trough is seen beginning to dig into the Pacific Northwest; with a
much smaller shortwave trough zipping across the Central Plains this
afternoon.

The shortwave trough zipping northeast across Kansas and Missouri
this afternoon has brought some showers and embedded thunderstorms to
the region. Currently, the activity is sliding northeast along with
the trough, leaving behind lingering cloud cover and cool
temperatures today. This will set the stage for a bit of fog later
tonight, thanks to the abundant ground moisture, but might also
bring another round of scattered storms late tonight/early
Tuesday morning as the nocturnal jet associated with the exiting
trough points its nose at eastern Kansas. Models are in less than
ideal agreement as operational models continue to point at the
potential for storms while hi-res solutions tend to lean towards
keeping the overnight hours dry, or at least limiting the coverage
of storms. Have kept the going Chance POPs for the late night
hours as precipitable water values over 1.5 inches indicate that
it should not take much lift along the leading nose of the jet to
get a few storms going.

As we move through Tuesday into Wednesday...the large trough, noted
across the Pacific Northwest, will start digging in across the
western CONUS, but not before ejecting a bit of energy east across
the northern Plains Tuesday and Wednesday, which may bring our next
chance at storms. The frontal boundary that will accompany the
leading trough is expected to slide into Missouri late Tuesday
night, possibly wallowing around through the day Wednesday before
advertised convergence and available moisture initiate storms
Wednesday evening. Otherwise, with the trough to our west digging in
deeper, expect to see warmer temperatures through the coming week as
southerly winds and a southwest flow aloft allow for highs well in
the 80s.

And lastly, with the help of the western trough, the prevailing
storm track will remain out to our west through the coming weekend,
with an on-again-off-again chance of rain visiting the far
northwest corner of Missouri as storms are expected to move from
western Kansas into eastern Nebraska, thus leaving our next
widespread chance of rain waiting till Monday when the large
western trough starts to fill and move into the Plains States.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT TUE SEP 19 2017

Satellite imagery and surface observations show fog and low
ceilings developing and spreading westward into the terminals.
This will likely bring IFR conditions to the area within an hour
or two. The other item of concern is an area of alto cumulus
developing in central KS. This may become an area of showers with
embedded thunderstorms that will move into the terminals around
sunrise tomorrow. Have adjusted the forecast to account for these
quickly changing trends. It still looks like by this afternoon
that winds will increase out of the south from 15kts sustained
with gusts around 25 kts. It also looks like these winds will
persist into the overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ005>008-
     014>017-022>025-030>033-038>040-044>046-054.

&&

$$

Update...CDB
Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...CDB