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000
FXUS63 KEAX 100536
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1236 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 306 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

Southwesterly winds have gradually increased over the past few
hours, with temperatures warming into the 50s. Expect readings to
creep a few degrees higher through the remainder of the afternoon.
Otherwise, relatively quiet weather is expected over the next 24
hours. Weak upper ridging, lee trough over the High Plains, and high
pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue the west to
southwest winds through Monday afternoon. An H85 warm axis around
+14C will move over the forecast area tomorrow. With strong
insolation expected, high temperatures Monday afternoon may warm
into the middle 60s to lower 70s.

By Tuesday, much of the forecast area will remain in the warm sector
to begin the day ahead of an approaching upper trough entering the
Plains. Surface low pressure will move from central Kansas at
sunrise Tuesday to southwest Missouri by Tuesday evening. A warm
front will stretch eastward from the low, eventually residing across
northern Missouri by late morning Tuesday. North of the frontal
boundary, winds will become northeasterly and temperatures will
remain cooler in the lower 50s, whereas south of the front,
temperatures will warm into the middle 60s to middle 70s. Moisture
will also increase within the warm sector upon southerly winds, with
dewpoints reaching the middle 40s to near 50. While the majority of
any precipitation is expected to be post-frontal, there is a slight
chance for shallow convection to develop late Tuesday afternoon
along the surface boundary as it drops through the southern portions
of the forecast area. With strong upper dynamics, increasing
moisture, and some elevated instability, a slight chance of isolated
thunderstorms may evolve over central Missouri.

Otherwise, attention turns to Tuesday evening/night as colder air
advects into the region. Gusty northerly winds are expected as a
tightening pressure gradient moves into the region. Wind speeds are
currently forecast just under advisory criteria, but the increase in
wind will be relatively abrupt compared to earlier in the day with
much lighter wind speeds. Overall, model guidance has come into
better alignment with regards to timing and position of
surface/upper features. There appears to be a decent chance of
post-frontal precipitation across the forecast area Tuesday evening
into early morning Wednesday. The biggest challenge is precipitation
type and the timing of any potential changeover. Taking a model
consensus approach, forecast soundings currently suggest most
precipitation will initially begin the form of rain Tuesday evening
thanks to a warm nose around H8 and an above freezing near-surface
layer. There may also be an initial delay in introducing ice
crystals into the saturated layer even as the profile cools, and
with above freezing surface temperatures, this would keep
precipitation as rain. Ultimately, forecast soundings indicate
conditions supportive of snowfall, with a timing from north to south
with time. Precipitation will begin to move out of the area
overnight as drier air advects into the region, so there is a small
window where vertical temperature profiles and sufficient saturation
will exist for snowfall. Currently, the highest probability of said
snowfall occurrence and light accumulation exists north of the
Missouri River. Another challenge to any potential accumulation will
be surface air temperatures remaining at or above freezing during
the snowfall duration, with further uncertainty to whether the
rate/persistence of snow can overcome recent warm surfaces. At this
time, no widespread impacts are expected from this system.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

Quiet, warming conditions are expected following the Tuesday night
system as southerly flow returns and brief mid level ridging builds
over the central CONUS. Lingering northwest flow will keep highs in
the 40s on Wednesday, but highs should reach the upper 50s to lower
60s Thursday through Saturday.

Another weak clipper system will drop out of south central Canada on
Saturday afternoon, sliding a backdoor cold front through the region
late Saturday into early Sunday. Both the GFS and EC indicate that
an upper-level trough could slide across the cooler air Saturday
night into Sunday, possibly bringing a little more light wintry
precipitation into the area. Temperatures and precipitation chances
remain uncertain, and ground temperatures may be too warm for light
snow to accumulate, so will leave as a rain/snow mix for now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

Latest Doppler radar 925mb winds, roughly 2k ft agl, at KTOP and
KEAX showing 50kts. This is a tad stronger than progged and 00Z NAM
Bufr sounding showed these winds increasing through the night, so
have included LLWS overnight. Conditions will improve quickly after
sunrise as the strong/sharp nocturnal inversion erodes and allows for
deeper mixing while the 925mb winds diminish. Otherwise, VFR
conditions expected.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...MJ