Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 281724

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1124 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015

Issued at 1123 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015

Updated the forecast based on radar and temperature trends. Radar
shows freezing rain expanding over eastern kansas and spreading to
the east/northeast. Temperatures across northeastern Kansas and
northwestern Missouri are in the upper 20s to lower 30s. This
additional round of freezing rain may bring another several
hundredths of an inch of glazing to area roads, mainly bridges and
overpasses, and any elevated objects. Given the trajectory of the
precip area, have added Holt county to the going freezing rain
advisory. Will continue to assess how far east this precipitation may
make it and will expand the advisory further east north and east as
needed. Will also determine if the timing and extent of the advisory
will need to be expanded through the overnight with the routine
forecast issuance.


Issued at 331 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015

A few rounds of light freezing rain/drizzle will continue to be
a concern today and tonight as moisture continues to pool in the
vicinity of a nearly stalled frontal boundary sitting south of the
forecast area. Temperatures are hovering a few degrees below the
freezing mark across eastern KS and portions of northwest MO, and
are generally not expected to budge today, making any precipitation
that falls potentially hazardous in those areas. As a result, will
elect to extend the freezing rain advisory through this evening for
the same areas currently included.

Most models are advertising a slight warm-up this evening and
tonight; however, have not completely jumped on this trend as it
seems a bit counterintuitive with minimal change to the surface
pattern/wind direction and speed. Additional occasional periods of
light precipitation are possible again tonight, but if surface temps
can rise even a degree or two, any further extension of the freezing
rain advisory may not be warranted, so will re-evaluate when temp
trends become clearer.

Precipitation becomes more likely Sunday afternoon into the night as
the upper low currently sitting over the Southwest ejects northeast,
lifting lee-side surface pressure into the Plains and providing lift
where moisture is clearly already well in place. A brief return to
southerly flow at low-levels will help temperatures finally shift
out of the near-freezing realm and should keep precipitation type
all liquid for Sunday through Monday afternoon; however, some brief
mix with or changeover to snow is possible on the back side of the
system Monday night into early Tuesday.

Quieter conditions are anticipated beyond Tuesday, when temperatures
begin to lift back to seasonal normals, and the combination of weak
upper level ridging and surface high pressure keeps precipitation
chances very low.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1116 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015

IFR to low MVFR ceilings will persist through the entire forecast.
Intermittent -FZDZ to -FZRA will persist at the through at least
this evening and potentially through the night before temperatures
begin to warm back above freezing later tomorrow morning.


.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freezing Rain Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ025-

MO...Freezing Rain Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for



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