Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 161723
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1223 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 315 AM CDT MON OCT 16 2017

Temperatures early this morning are continuing to drop as surface
high pressure takes control, although its center will remain south
of the forecast area as it cruises by today and tonight. Once this
morning`s low temps start rising again after sunrise, look for
highs today to reach near normal for mid-October, comfortably set
in the upper 60s to around the 70 degree mark. Thanks to zonal
flow taking over for much of the week, unremarkable weather will
dominate, with temps slowly but steadily rising throughout the
week. The next rain chances look to arrive next weekend as the
zonal pattern breaks down, allowing for an increasingly amplified
one to take its place. While there are still large discrepancies
among the global models as to the specifics, they generally agree
on a trough traversing through the Intermountain West and into the
Plains states, kicking off unsettled weather at the surface.
While no two weather events are the same, models are depicting a
similar scenario of this past weekend with upper trough exiting
the ImW, triggering cyclogenesis, leading to a cold front dragging
through the region, and triggering storms along and ahead of it.
Far too early though, as aforementioned, to nail down specifics of
any sort, so stay tuned. In other words: precip this weekend?
very possible; thunderstorms? potentially; severe weather? way too
soon to predict with decent accuracy.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT MON OCT 16 2017

VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period. We will see a
small wind shift to the southwest later today due to the surface
high sliding east, otherwise, winds will be light with clear skies
for the next 24 hours. There is a chance STJ could see some fog
again tomorrow morning, with lows forecast in the low 40s and the
MO River around 58 degrees F. Winds will be a little stronger
than this morning and the temperature shouldn`t get as low
tomorrow morning so not enough confidence to mention low
visibilities in the TAF just yet.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...lg
Aviation...Grana


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