Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 301132
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
632 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 330 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

Large-scale upper low spinning across the Central High Plains this
morning...with feature continuing to take on a more and more
negative tilt as system begins the occlusion process. Regional radars
showing main push of precip lifting north into southern Iowa this
morning...as main dryslot which has been advertised in recent model
runs begins its trek north from the Southern Plains. Heading into
today...main sfc low now seen over southeastern Kansas/northeastern
Oklahoma will slowly lift north along the I-49 corridor before
slowing down by afternoon as system continues occluding over north-
central Missouri. As this occurs...expect main occluded boundary to
begin lifting north towards the area with most models suggesting this
feature should make it as far north as the Route 36 corridor by this
afternoon. With this boundary expected to set up across our
area...expect a decent thermal gradient across the region with low
70s possible south of the Route 50 corridor while upper 50s/low 60s
dominate up towards the IA state line. In terms on shwr/storm
activity...prevailing thought heading out of the gate this morning
is that most of the region will see long periods of dry conditions
as forcing for assent from the main upper low remains west and
main southern stream speed max remains well south. Despite
this...cannot rule out some isolated shwrs/storms later today
especially across the far eastern zones south of the front which
should have a better opportunity to destabilize (MLCAPE 1000-1500
J/kg or so) this afternoon. As was the case with yesterday/s model
runs...best wind fields will remain well away from the area...and
widespread severe is not expected. Cannot rule out a few isolated
hailers east of Route 65 but overall thought is much of this
activity if it develops...should remain below severe limits.

Lgt shwr activity to remain across northern portions of the fcst area
tonight and again through portions of Sunday morning as inverted
trough/upper low combine remain over the area. By these times
however...any instability will largely be absent which should support
nothing more than a few passing rain shwrs from time to time.
Noticeably cooler tomorrow as cold air advection starts on the
backside of departing sfc low. Look for highs only to climb into the
upper 50s to lower 60s across much of the area as winds change around
to the north by afternoon.

Beyond this...an extended period of mostly dry weather can be
expected through much of next week. Cannot rule out a few passing
shwrs Monday afternoon as a weak wave passes through...but dry low-
level conditions could result in mostly virga. Next chance for lgt
rain shwrs may arrive Wed afternoon/evening as the next cold front
passes through the area...but latest runs show this passing with
little impact. And looking farther into the extended suggests a nice
warning trend by late week into next weekend as strong ridging builds
east from the Rockies.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 631 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

IFR conditions well-established across the region this morning with
most locations sitting below alternate mins. Unfortunately little
improvement is expected through 18z as a very moist airmass will
remain in place. Light thunder activity should push through the
region by 14z however...with mostly dry conditions expected through
the remainder of the day. Frontal boundary to gradually lift north
through early afternoon which should lead to a rather quick
improvement back to VFR as the day progresses. Lowest confidence is
for the STJ terminal as low clouds may linger a little longer than
currently forecast based on its farthest north location. Clouds
likely to increase in areal coverage after 00z with a possible
reduction down to MVFR after 06z.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...32


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