Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 240926
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
326 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

For late January...one could not ask for a better day than today as
above average temps will prevail ahead of a compact storm system that
will move in later tonight. Warm air advection ahead of this system
should allow temps to climb into the low to middle 50s across most
areas today...with mostly sunny skies prevailing overhead. Shifting gears
to tonight and Sunday...water vapor imagery showing main shortwave
of interest over British Columbia/western Alberta this morning. This
feature will rapidly dive southeast into the Plains later today...and
eventually the Lwr Missouri Valley during the overnight period
tonight. In recent days...guidance had been very insistent that the
bulk of precip would stay north and east of the region. That said...a
major model shift occurred since yesterday with latest trends now
advertising a further southward track of the accompanying sfc low
which is now forecast to move from from Sioux Falls to Quincy, IL by
12z Sunday. As this occurs...GFS and NAM BUFKIT soundings show plenty
of warm air near the surface to keep all precip in the form of rain
overnight...however cold air advection on the backside of the low
combined with increasing moisture aloft may result in a RA/SN mix for
portions of north-central MO after sunrise Sunday. Have kept mix
mention mainly north of Route 36...however if trends continue to cool
with later model runs...this may need to be extended further south
towards the Missouri Rvr. In any event...feature certainly won/t have
much moisture to work with which should lead to no accumulation.
While Sunday looks a little more unsettled than previous forecasts
might have suggested...the other main story will be the much cooler
forecast as models have trended cooler. Knocked several degrees off
inherited high temp fcst as strong gusty winds bring plenty of cold
air south through the day.

Beyond this...a fairly quick return to warmer weather is anticipated
as heights begin building as West Coast upper ridging breaks down and
shifts east. Upper low across Baja California still forecast to
traverse the crest of the ridge before ejecting east into the Plains
by midweek. As this occurs...strong thermal advection ahead of the
feature will likely allow temps to warm into the upper 50s/lower 60s
by Wednesday before a fairly significant cold front moves through
early Thursday morning. Feature looks to pass dry as expansive
ridging across the Gulf Coast prevents much moisture return north
through the Plains. Dry wx to then continue through the remainder of
the fcst period as cool Canadian high pressure settles south across
the Heartland.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1000 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

Weak cold front dropping into northwest MO at this hour will have
minimal impacts to terminals other than a wind shift to the
northwest. Otherwise VFR through the period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Hawblitzel






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