Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 192313
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
613 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 305 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

The main threat of precipitation and even possibly severe weather
will occur along the MO/IA border and over the eastern portion of
the CWA.  Currently there is a MCS over southern Iowa moving to the
SE along the backside of the upper level ridge.  It is also being
effected by an area of low level convergence that runs along eastern
MO into southern IA from the surface up to 850hPa.  With MLCAPE
values near 3000J/kg and effective shear of 35kts the possibility of
severe weather is possible. Damaging winds would be the main threat
from these storms with small hail also possible.  This feature is
expected to push into the NE CWA by 21Z exiting around 03Z. Isolated
convection is also possible ahead of this MCS along that low level
convergent boundary with signs of enhanced cumulus already on
visible satellite.  These storms would be more diurnally driving and
should weaken just after sunset.

Outside of the potential severe weather and storms along the NE
portion of the CWA the main concern this week will be the heat as
pronounced ridge (598dam) moves over the region. This ridge builds
into the region with highest heights occurring Thursday into Friday.
As the low level high pressure pushes to the east strong warm air
advection occurs on the upstream side with 850hPa temps going from
21C today to 26C by Thursday and S-SW winds throughout the week.
There will be no real break in this heat as dewpoints hold in the
mid 70s keeping low temperatures fairly high overnight. Heat indexes
will rise above 105F for most of the CWA Wednesday and then shoot up
near or above 110F for Thursday and Friday with a slight cool down
to 105F Saturday.  With this extended stretch of temperatures above
the Heat Advisory criteria the Excessive Heat Warning will be
extended in coverage and timeframe Wednesday at 1PM and end at 7PM
on Saturday to include the entire CWA. The GFS and ECMWF are hinting
at a possible MCS forming up overnight Friday in southern Iowa which
would have an effect on the temperatures Saturday and will need to
be monitored for any changes to the heat warning on Saturday.

The ridge starts to flatten out slightly on Saturday as a strong
short wave pushes out of the northern Rockies. This feature helps to
intensify a low pressure over the northern plains with a cold front
extending down tot he SW.  This frontal boundary is progged to push
through Saturday night and finally provide some relief from the
heat. This boundary stalls and becomes stationary over the region
through Monday providing a chance for storms from Sunday through
Monday.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 613 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period, with any
convective activity this evening remaining east of the terminals.
Winds will generally be out of the south at speeds less than 10 kts,
but a southwestward propagating outflow boundary may temporarily
change the wind direction to northeast at KMCI and KMKC between 00z
and 01z this evening.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-057-
     060-103>105.

     Excessive Heat Warning from 1 PM Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Saturday
     for KSZ102.

     Heat Advisory until 1 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ102.

MO...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ028>031-
     037>040-043>046-053-054.

     Excessive Heat Warning from 1 PM Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Saturday
     for MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-032-033.

     Heat Advisory until 1 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ001>008-011>017-
     020>025-032-033.

&&

$$

Discussion...Barham
Aviation...Laflin


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