Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 190914
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
314 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 309 AM CST THU JAN 19 2017

Southerly flow and increasing moisture has advected into the local
area behind an effective warm front early Thursday morning. Aloft,
southwest flow is limiting moisture fields in the mid and upper
levels as a broad upper-level trough continues to push through the
Central Plains today. Broad ascent atop increasing moisture across
central and southeastern Missouri has resulted in light
precipitation. While much of the precipitation has remained east
and south of the CWA thus far, a shower or two is possible this
afternoon across central to northeastern Missouri. With weak
elevated instability, a few rumbles of thunder are possible during
the afternoon hours. Areas across eastern Kansas and western
Missouri may also see a brief sprinkle or two, though most
activity will remain well east. The upper level system will take
on a negative tilt early Friday morning, though by that time most
of the associated precipitation will have moved outside of the
local area.

For today, temperatures will be slightly limited by extensive low
level stratus expected to linger through much of the day. With
that said, temperatures will still be near 10 degrees above
normal, ranging from the upper 40s to lower 50s south of the
Missouri River, down to the lower 40s across northeastern
Missouri. Increasing moisture has helped to moderate increased
temperatures from Wednesday, so do not anticipate Thursday temps
to cool much further from Wednesday despite prolonged cloud cover.
The main impact today will be in the form of dense fog potential,
particularly during the morning hours. With dewpoints expected to
increase through much of the day, will need to monitor the
potential for widespread advection fog to roll into the area
before sunrise. Should this form early, may have difficulty in
dissipating fog with decreased daytime mixing due to extensive low
level stratus.

By Friday, the warming trend will continue within the warm sector of
a developing surface low underneath a shortwave feature ejecting out
of the Central Rockies. Additional precipitation is possible along
the associated warm front as it lifts north along the MO/IA border
Friday afternoon and evening. A much stronger upper level system
will develop within the Southern Plains by the late weekend, though
latest model runs suggest a more southern track than previously
depicted. As a result, any associated precipitation with this system
will remain well south of the I-70 corridor.

Though the upper pattern will remain fairly active over the next
several days, weak and displaced forcing will limit precipitation
potential for most areas during this time. Greater focus will
shift to increased fog potential today, along with warming
temperatures through Saturday. Greater precipitation potential
will hold off until next mid-week, coincident with cold advection
and a return of near-normal temperatures.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1143 PM CST WED JAN 18 2017

Long duration IFR setting up across the region this evening with
confidence now increasing that restrictions below alternate mins
will be possible through the predawn and early morning hours. Some
potential for restrictions below airfield mins, however a weak
enough pressure gradient may prevent VSBYs from tanking that low.
In any event, once the low clouds set in, they look to be here
much of the day with heights possibly increasing above low-end
MVFR thresholds during the afternoon hours. Otherwise...conditions
look to fall right back down to IFR after 00z should they have
the opportunity to increase earlier in the day.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...32


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