Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 181720
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1120 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 255 AM CST THU JAN 18 2018

The warming trend will continue today as much like yesterday,
southwest winds will warm the area through the day. Unlike yesterday
we will start the day in the about 15 to 20 degrees warmer in the
teens. Also, strong northerly flow aloft will relax today. Models
suggest highs will reach into the upper 30s to mid 40s however, do
not believe they are handling snowpack on the ground well and have
kept highs in the mid to upper 30s. Friday, temperatures will warm
considerably, as weak upper level ridging will build into the
region, modest WAA will persist, and snowpack should begin to be
whittled down on Thursday. This should allow highs to reach the mid
40s to lower 50s. WAA will continue on Saturday ushering in mostly
cloudy skies. Models are trying to produce light QPF during the day
however, with no forcing mechanism apparent, think there could be
some patchy light drizzle but wouldn`t expect showers. Despite the
mostly cloudy skies highs will still reach the mid 40s to mid 50s.

Sunday and Monday continue to look like unsettled days this forecast
period. During the day Sunday a upper level trough will move from
the eastern Rockies into the western Plains This will force a cold
front into the towards the area with shower chances during the day
Sunday. Models have come into much better agreement on timing of the
cold front getting into the area as well as the location of a
surface low along the front. Most models now move the front into the
area late Sunday afternoon or Sunday evening. If the earlier
solution comes to fruition that would lead to the chance for seeing
a few thunderstorms. Although both 1km and 6km shear values are off
the chart during this period, the limiting factor looks to be the
instability with CAPE values only in the 100-200J/Kg range. Models
also bring a surface low into northwestern Missouri Sunday evening.
This will help wrap around much cooler air on the backside of the
low and allow rain to mix with or change over to snow late Sunday
night into Monday. Little to no accumulation is expected.
Temperatures on sunday should still be quite warm with the frontal
passage not making it into the area until late in the day. Expect
highs in the upper 40s across the northwest to highs in the lower
60s across central Missouri. Highs behind the front on Monday will
be in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Surface highs pressure then looks to
build into the region for the middle of next week drying conditions
out with seasonable temperatures in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1120 AM CST THU JAN 18 2018

VFR conditions are expected with only high level clouds moving
through or into the area. Winds will be fairly steady out of the
southwest between 10 and 15 kts. Winds may be a bit stronger this
afternoon and diminish some after sunset, but will generally be
within this range through the forecast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...CDB



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