Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 190543
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1143 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 307 PM CST WED JAN 18 2017

The low stratus that had affected much of the area has steadily
eroded in the last few hours over eastern KS and western MO. North
central and northeastern MO should continue to see the stratus
linger. For tonight, the steep temperature inversion will return
as the boundary layer cools. With southerly flow allowing moisture
to continue to advect north, thinking low stratus and fog will
redevelop over the area. Seeing how the clouds did everything but
what was forecast today though, there is some uncertainty. So have
continued mention of fog in the grids but will hold off on any
kind of dense fog advisory. Fortunately, it looks like
temperatures should stay above freezing so if widespread/dense fog
develops, there should not be an issue of icing and slick roads.

The other issue over the next day to day and a half will be with the
the large upper low slowly tracking to the northeast. As this wave
moves northeast, it seems to take on a negative tilt. This has a few
effects on our sensible weather. Mainly, with it becoming more
dynamic, it looks like it`s able to draw more moisture and warmer
temperatures north into the area. This leads to some instability,
particularly for the eastern half of the forecast area. So this may
result in a few thunderstorms, or at least a few rumbles of thunder
over the eastern half of the forecast area tomorrow afternoon.

For the weekend, southerly flow will persist, allowing temperatures
to remain above normal. For Saturday, the area may climb into the
upper 50s as a weak upper wave passes to the north. That wave will
pass a front through Saturday night into Sunday so temperatures
should be about 10 degrees cooler. There will also be another wave
passing to our south so ample cloud cover will aid in keeping
temperatures cooler than the previous day. This active pattern looks
to continue into next week with one large upper wave digging into the
southwest and leading impulses moving overhead. At the moment, it
looks too warm to support much/if any wintry precipitation, even
when the main upper tough moves into the Plains during the middle of
next week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1143 PM CST WED JAN 18 2017

Long duration IFR setting up across the region this evening with
confidence now increasing that restrictions below alternate mins
will be possible through the predawn and early morning hours. Some
potential for restrictions below airfield mins, however a weak
enough pressure gradient may prevent VSBYs from tanking that low.
In any event, once the low clouds set in, they look to be here
much of the day with heights possibly increasing above low-end
MVFR thresholds during the afternoon hours. Otherwise...conditions
look to fall right back down to IFR after 00z should they have
the opportunity to increase earlier in the day.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...32


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