Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 290900
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
300 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 300 AM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

Main item today will be the passage of a secondary cold front late
this morning and afternoon as primary surface low continues to spin
across the Northern Plains. Passage of this feature will mark the
beginnings of a decent cooling trend which will persist through much
of the forecast period. Highs today will range from the upper 40s up
towards the NE/IA borders...with upper 50s/low 60s expected across
southern sections of the forecast area. Beginning tomorrow
however...highs will struggle to make it out of the lower to mid 40s
with this trend continuing for the foreseeable future.

Speaking of the weekend...eyes will be drawn upstream across the
southern High Plains on Saturday as long awaited upper low begins to
move through southern Texas and northern Mexico. What happens
afterwords remains up in the air this morning as ECMWF and GFS
continue to disagree on the degree of phasing between an incoming
northern stream energy and the aforementioned upper closed low. If
the ECMWF solution were a perfect prog...precip would begin to work
back into the area Saturday night with a continuation through the day
on Sunday as main storm system tracks north through the Mississippi
Valley. It should be stated up front that if this scenario comes to
fruition...an eastward shifting storm track would provide our area
with just a glancing blow as main precip shield would remain east of
our area. Meanwhile the operational GFS continues to be the less
progressive model solution...holding off the bulk of precip until
the Monday/Monday night timeframe when the upper closed low finally
begins to phase with northern stream energy arriving from the
northwest. With this solution however...main push of precipitation
looks to be prefrontal...suggestion warm air in place ahead of the
storm system which would significantly reduce the likelihood of
wintry precipitation. So while they look somewhat interesting from a
causal view...overall prevailing through this morning is that either
solution should result in fairly small impacts across our region.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1132 PM CST MON NOV 28 2016

VFR conditions expected with light winds. There will be an increase
in high level cloudiness south of the MO River towards sunrise that
will last for most of the morning hours before clearing west to east.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...MJ



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